“Once a sex offender, always a sex offender?” Claire Hargreaves – Professor Brian Francis – Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University European Society of Criminology, Vilnius, Lithuania, 2011

Sexual Offenders Sexual offending is a major concern. Should a sex offender always be labelled a sex offender? Sex Offender Registration

United Kingdom – Violent and Sex Offender Register (ViSOR) Australia – Australian National Child Offender Register (ANCOR) Canada – National Sex Offender Registry (NSOR) United States of America – All 50 states have passed laws requiring sex offenders to register with police.

Previous Research Kurlychek, Brame and Bushway (2007) ▫ “if a person with a criminal record remains crime free for a period of about 7 years, his or her risk of a new offence is similar to that of a person without any criminal record” (2007:80) Soothill and Francis (2009) ▫ Risk of a further conviction comes close to the non-offending population 10 to 15 years after their 20 th birthday. Blumstein and Nakamura (2009) Bushway, Nieuwbeerta and Blokland (2011)

My Research Examining the criminal careers of convicted male sexual offenders, concentrating primarily on their desistance from sexual offending. ▫ Although desistance can never truly be measured an offender’s risk of recidivism can be. Establish when a convicted sexual offender has the same or similar risk of being convicted of a further sexual offence as the never convicted population.

Data The Offenders Index is held by the Ministry of Justice. The database holds conviction histories on over 10 million offenders from courts in England and Wales from 1963 to The birth cohort data sets are publicly available, and contain conviction histories for offenders in eight birth cohorts: 1953, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1978, 1983 and The datasets are each samples of four birth weeks. Male offenders make up 94% of all convicted sexual offenders

Exploratory Analysis In total there are 62,552 offenders from the eight cohorts, with a total of 445,680 convictions. 3.7% of all convicted offenders were convicted of a sexual offence Just under half of all convicted sex offenders had more than one sex conviction

Methodology Re-conviction of ▫ Any offence ▫ Sexual offence Convicted offenders analysed ▫ Sex Offenders ▫ Burglary Offenders ▫ All Offenders Control group ▫ Never convicted population

Methodology Hazard estimate of re-conviction Offenders with a first conviction before the age of 21 Time to conviction from age 21 Life table analysis Convergence of hazard rates

Initial Analysis

Convergence of hazard rates Risk of ANY conviction from age 21 Time in years until hazard rates converge (AIC) Never Convicted Population Sex Offenders14 Burglary Offenders24 All Offenders33

Convergence of hazard rates

Discussion So when does a convicted sexual offender have the same or similar risk of being convicted of a further sexual offence as the never convicted population? Convicted sex offenders have a similar risk of receiving a sex conviction as the never convicted population at the age of 46. Convicted sex offenders do not appear to pose a more significant risk than any other type of offender of being convicted of any offence. What does this mean for policy makers and authorities? Why should sex offenders continue to be ostracised?

Ongoing Work Analysis on individual age groups Period at risk Limited number of risk factors Sub categories of sexual offenders Norwegian crime data ▫ Rich content ▫ Potential risk factors (Employment, education, marriage, fatherhood)

References Blumstein, A. and K. Nakamura, (2009) "Redemption in the Presence of Widespread Criminal Background Checks," Criminology Volume.47, No.2, (May). Bushway, S., Nieuwbeerta, P. and Blockland, A. (2011) “The predictive value of criminal background checks: Do age and criminal history affect time to redemption?” Criminology, Volume.49, No.1 Francis, B. And Soothill, K. (2010) “Retention and disclosure of old criminal records – data protection or protecting the public?” Presentation given at the Royal Statistical Society International Conference. Kurlychek, M. C., Brame, R. and Bushway, S. (2007) “Enduring Risk: Old Criminal Records and Prediction of Future Criminal Involvement.” Crime and Delinquency. Volume.53, No.1. Soothill, K. and Francis, B. (2009) “When do Ex-Offenders Become Like Non-Offenders?” The Howard Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume.48: 373–387.