logi Energy logi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEO Thoughts on Oil The Thinking Process - December 2009 Peak Oil Analysis

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps Oil Price Analysis Oil Price Direction Strategies Positions Position Hedging Portfolio Hedging

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price Analysis - The Bases of Direction Current Global Production Global Export Modeling EIA Data Analysis Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis Oil Price - Market Effects Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis Technical Chart Analysis Weather Analysis Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations 5 Person Technical Analysis Team Insights from all 15 Team Members Oil Prices: Where are we in the Oscillation Cycle?

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil Analyses Supply and Demand Cross in 2032 “Best Case” (Upper Chart) Oil Supplied by Exports Expected to Drop at roughly 1 MMbpd per year (Lower Chart) Within 2 years, it will drop below World Demand at the Currently Depressed Usage Rates Within 5 years, there will be Fuel Rationing in the US, Europe and Japan Source: Multiple sources compiled by Samuel Foucher and Jeffrey Brown Exports SHOULD meet Needs for Next 2 Years

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: EIA Data Seasonal Effects Crude Oil and Gasoline beginning Fall/Winter Build at Extreme Highs Inventory only to get worse (Upper Graphs) Heating Oil Winter Drawdown Starting at 99th %tile. Warm Winter could spell even Higher Inventory El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected. Crude Oil and Gasoline Reserves Expected to Grow if There is Lack of Use

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETF Downtrend Slowly Crumbling from Oct High - Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Weakening

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETF Seasonal Drop from Oct High - Winter Cold Snap causing bounce back, also Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Lack of Strength Still Downtrend

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - SPY, S&P 500 ETF Santa Claus Rally Driving into ascending triangle Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator showing Uncertainty and Chaikan Money Flow shows Growing Strength Clear Uptrend - But, Hit a Limit by New Years?

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETF Dollar Spikeback - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price, but having an effect - More Correlated to S&P and Gold Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Growing Strength Clear Uptrend

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETF Market Forces Spiking Gold Down - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price - More Anti- Correlated to Dollar Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Decreasing Strength STRONG Reversal

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas Stock ETF Oil and Gas Stocks Breaking through Bottom of Upward Channel - Bounce back points to lower prices Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow going strongly negative Down Spike Imminent?

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads - Broken Gasoline and 3:2:1 Crack Spreads ‘broke down’ in late August with excess storage Crack Spreads hitting Resistance Crack Spreads this low means Refinery Margins are thin and trying to rebound with weather and Christmas Driving Crack Spread Leading Indicator of Prices

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Elliott Wave - Monthly Tracks Fibonacci Based Elliott Wave Responses Caused by Behavioral Market Responses Monthly Wave Analysis Expects Price to Drop below Dec08 Low Expects Succeeding Up Price Move to go up to $300 to $400 per barrel Elliott Wave Theorists - DO NOT BELIEVE in Peak Oil Predicted Dow 10,000 S&P 1100 in March 2009 during Low Elliott Wave most accurate at describing turn 1 to 2 wks after Elliott Wave Predicted $120 or more Oil at High and $45 or less Oil at Low

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Technical Analysis Oil Price Action Just Below Short Term Support Line Long Term Support - Resistance Short Term Support - Resistance

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Weather Effects El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected El Nino (temp >1deg) was expected to peak at deg, now modeled to deg Temperatures MUCH Warmer El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected Winter Expected to be warmer through March HO Reserves Expected to Grow with Lack of Use

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price: Industry Insights DOT: Airline Passenger Seat Miles Down -9.3% over Last 2 Years Trucking Firms reporting -5.2% in Oct09 from Oct08. This was truck Tonnage’s lowest decrement since Nov 2008; Sep 09 was -7.3% from Sep 08. American Association of Railroads reports Rail Tonnage down -13.7% compared to ‘08 and -18.2% since ‘07 Dow Jones Transportation Average - Triple Top, Third Top Not as High as Second. No Uptick in Transportation Expected Overage in Supplies not Needed Supplies Will Continue to Build

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Oil Price - Direction Bias next 6 Months Current Global Production: Down Global Export Modeling: Neutral EIA Data Analysis: Down Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis: Neutral Oil Price - Market Effects : Down Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis: Down Technical Chart Analysis: Possibly Down Weather Analysis: Down Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations: Down Price Seems to be in the Middle Direction Bias Pointing Down - Market Headed Down Oil Prices: Where are we in the Oscillation Cycle?

Peak Oil Value Fund logi Energy Contact Larry Ortega Chief Investment Officer logi Energy This is not an offer to sell any fund or securities. Before you invest in markets, please discuss your decisions with your financial advisor.