How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007

We face enormous challenges Global Warming Peak Oil Deeply corrupted governments (USA) Industry Sell-Outs Well meaning environmentalists GreenWashers

We must develop enormous programs to meet these challenges. The $21 Trillion already committed to carbon is destructive. We need to overcome collective ignorance, and get a grip on the scale of the challenge.

Global Warming

Atmospheric CO 2

The fires are burning! Fires in Congo & Angola

Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse Feb-Mar 2002 In about 35 days Larger than Rhode Island Totally baffled scientists 1 down, 4 to go

Is this a workable response?

We must stop carbon build-up …

Peak Oil

"Today I believe is the end of cheap energy. It's essential that we move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking and we have to do everything we can to plug the hole.” Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chair of Shell

The Pretenders IEA, EIA, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco, Lynch, Adelman, Yergin, Lovins

The Pretenders “ The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked.” The National Commission on Energy Policy

The Hubbert Peak

UK Production and Net Exports

Top 5 Exporters: Production & Consumption

Deeply corrupted governments (USA) In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to no-one requiring both internal and external pressure to make change possible Best pressures are technological advancements and market effectiveness

The All-New DonCar!

Industry Sell-Outs

In case you missed it…

Greenwashers Well-meaning environmentalists Academics who know but won’t tell

GreenWashers Greenwashing," a pejorative term derived from the term "whitewashing," was coined by environmental activists to describe efforts by corporations to portray themselves as environmentally responsible in order to mask environmental wrongdoings.

Well meaning environmentalists Too lazy or incompetent to do the math

Academics who know but won’t tell

F. Sherwood Rowland The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland theorized that manmade organic gases combine with solar radiation, releasing atoms of chlorine and chlorine monoxide destroying ozone. Rowland's research, published in Nature, 1974, initiated a scientific investigation. The National Academy of Sciences concurred in 1976, and in 1978 CFC- based aerosols were banned.

Scalability

Richard Smalley “Think TeraWatts” 2004 Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge

Scalability Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6

Renewable Energy Solar 1.2 x 10 5 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind 2-4 TW extractable 4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross

“All Strategies Are Essential” MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 30 Source: EIA Reference Case / NPC Global Oil and Gas study survey. Illustrative View 15 EXPAND & DIVERSIFY MODERATE YEAR U.S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND U.S. LIQUID FUELS GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS)

Internal Combustion … Take 26.5 Quads of oil Turn 21.2 into smoke Use 5.3 to run things … How incredibly wasteful!?

Two out-of-date ways to produce power 1.External Combustion (Boiling water) James Watt (1776) … including nuclear power, just a fancy boiler, inherently inefficient. 2.Internal Combustion (Burning oil) Rudolf Diesel (1893) … hybrid electrics are just variations, inherently inefficient, heavy, under-utilized.

There is no S SS Silver Bullet. Silver Why Silver in the first place? The Lone Ranger chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. Specific gravity of Pb = AgSpecific gravity of Ag = Ag Ag

There is no A AA Ag Bullet. Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why….

Corn Ethanol

Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency Internal combustion is the PROBLEM.

Waste no time going down Blind Alleys

Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”

The Energy Cost of Energy 3% decline per year Annual contribution from alternate energy source Cumulative new energy from investment Useful Lifetime 25 Years Net Energy Analysis

The Energy Cost of Energy Available (net) Energy after Investment Cumulative new energy from investment Net Energy Analysis

Time Consequence of Delayed Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline

EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas Low EROEI → Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3?

EROEI = 4  12 ~ electric EROEI for Nuclear Plus … Terrorism Waste guarded for 10,000+ years Depletion → low grade ores → Greenhouse gases … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = ½

EROEI for PV EPBT: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10  30 ~ electric

EROEI for Thin Film PV EPBT: 6 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 40  120 ~electric

EROEI for Wind EPBT: 3 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 80  240 ~ electric

Solar Energy

Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” ( )

Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”

Hermann Scheer “Solar technologies are … potentially the most economic solution.”

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

ElectroRoof

Personal Rapid Transit

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

What is PRT? Personal Rapid Transit also known as: –Pod cars –PAT (Personal automated Transit) Created in 1970s in Morgantown, WV for a college campus. Typically 1-4 passengers Driverless Solar powered and electric drive Non-stop travel New service scheduled for 2008 –London Heathrow ULTra Active prototypes –SkyTran in Orange county and Vectus in Sweden

PRT advantages 1.Faster average speed than light rail, buses or cars 2.Much safer than driving, more private than BART 3.Lower energy usage than battery EV 4.Driverless, enjoyable commute time 5.Less embodied energy (lighter vehicles) 6.Lower risk, no battery breakthrough or recycling needed 7.No net fossil fuel emissions 8.Balance grid load via PV panels (net zero) 9.Quieter than cars 10.Fewer vehicles needed 11.Frees up roads for transit oriented development 12.Cheaper than cars

10X

Gordon Moore Moore ’ s Law: the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years.

Solar on Rail SolarEvolution

10X

Solar PRT Capacity PRT: Two people every second –7,200 passengers per hour –72,000 passengers per day Rail: –About 8,000 passengers per hour –60,000 passengers per day –Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass- mile / route-mile Highway: 1.2 average occupancy –2400 persons per lane / hour

More with Less

Bucky Fuller “More with Less”

Tonatiuh

SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

Solar PRT mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval  360 kw needed in a mile stretch  68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun  720 kw / mile  8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

Solar Sizing Calculations

Similar Solar Systems Exist

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

Can it work in Sweden?

SvenssonSwenson

Can it work in Sweden?

Payback better than coastal USA!

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! Think TeraWatts