Introduction 10 minutes Objectives 30 minutes Example, Case Study 10 minutes Group Discussion 30 minutes Exercise 10 minutes Conclusions 10 minutes

NameAffiliationNameAffiliation David Saah; Co-LeadUniversity of San Francisco, SIGPhan Xuan ThieuVinh University, Vietnam Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-LeadUniversity Putra MalaysiaChalita SriladdaUSAID-LEAD Khamla Phanvilay, Co-LeadNational University of LaosHoang Thi Thu DuyenVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Cao Thuy AnhDalat University, VietnamLadawan PuangchitKasetsart University, Thailand Chalermpol SamranpongChiang Mai University, ThailandDo Anh TuanVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Pham Thanh NamUSAID LEAF VietnamLyna KhanRoyal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Peter StephenUSAID LEAF BangkokLe Ba ThuongVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Hoang Vinh PhuVinh University, VietnamNapat JakwattanaUniversity of Phayao, Thailand Vipak JintanaKasetsart University, ThailandNur Anishah Binti AzizUniversity Kebangsaan Malaysia Kulala MulungPNG University of TechnologyRatcha ChaichanaKasetsart University, Thailand Somvilay ChanthalounnavongNational University of LaosSureerat LakanavichianChiang Mai University, Thailand Thavrak HuonRoyal University of Agriculture, CambodiaVongphet SihapanyaNational University of Laos Athsaphangthong MunelithUSAID LEAF LaosDavid GanzUSAID LEAF Bangkok Attachai JintrawetChiang Mai University, ThailandChi Pham, Project CoordinatorUSAID LEAF Bangkok Chanin ChiumkanokchaiUSAID LEAF BangkokKent ElliottUS Forest Service Lam Ngoc TuanDalat University, VietnamBeth LebowUS Forest Service Mark FennUSAID Vietnam Forests & DeltasGeoffrey BlateUS Forest Service

Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP) Section 3. Analysis of Options 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development

ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS NEGOTIATING & PRIORITIZING IMPLEMENTA- TION PLAN MONITORING & EVALUATION Low Emission Land Use Planning 1.1. Regulatory Assessments 1.2. Stakeholder Engagement 1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives 2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1. Modeling Future Trends 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction

Rules of the Game Time/Space Drivers of Change Goal / Objective NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 + / -

At the end of this session, learners will be able to:  Identify the role and importance of a ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) baseline in Low Emission Land Use Planning framework.  Select appropriate baseline quantification approach

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition BASELINE Scenario Performance

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario Performance

Efficient baseline case, which assumes that all resources are employed efficiently “business-as-usual” baseline case, which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place.

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Historic Trend)

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Historic Mean)

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Policy)

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Historic Mean) Reference Level (Historic Trend) Reference Level (Policy)

 Provide information on existing development objectives  Forecast and evaluate potential future scenarios  See the impact of climate change to the current situation  Optimize the current situation to meet desired conditions.  Develop alternative approaches

Years tCO2e Emissions Today Reference Level (Business as Usual without Project) Performance Emission Reduction Start LE LUP Activities Historical Emissions (Actual Emissions) Emissions with REDD+ Project (Monitored Emissions)

 Transparency  Consistency  Comparability  Completeness  Accuracy  Conservative From: GOFC-GOLD 2009

How?  Reference Level Historic trend Baseline  Specific existing policy change / New policy adopted  Defined reference condition Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Historic Trend)

Unit : t CO 2 e ha -1 Drivers analysis Historic Emissions Estimate for REDD+ Activity Data Emission/removal Data DeforestationDegradationEnhancementDeforestationDegradationEnhancement

Activity data (AD) – measure of extent of activity  Spatial extent of land cover transition due to deforestation, degradation, carbon stock enhancement  Obtained from change detection of remote sensing products or other sources such as timber extraction statistics  Units :  Deforestation  Area of gross deforestation per year: ha  Forest degradation  From logging activities: ha/yr  From fuel wood collection: m 3 /yr  Forest enhancement  Tree planting: ha/yr

Emission factors (EF) – emissions/removals of GHG per unit activity  Obtained from field data on carbon stocks, tree removals, regrowth rates etc.  Measured in tCO 2 e/unit

Net Emissions from Change = Activity Data Area of change (hectares) X Emission Factor Emissions per hectare of change (tCO2e/ha)

BAU?

Discuss on the regression coefficient y = 84445x R² =

Enhancement

Lam Dong, Vietnam Case Study BAU scenario  GDP growth rate : 20%  Population growth rate : 1.2%  Forest decline by 0.3%  Demands in electricity : 500MW (to 2020)

 Not a lot of data is available  Setting a BAU baseline is a policy decision and therefore political pressures may come into play.  The ‘nesting’ or integration of project and/or sub- national Reference Levels into national level Reference Levels will be complex.

This is NEW: The sharing of information and learning should lead to an openness and desire to share methodologies across jurisdictional and sector boundaries

 A reference level for LE LUP is established and agreed upon by stake holders  A BAU scenario provides the benchmark against which future emission reductions and removals can be measured.  A BAU is a policy decision.

 Guidelines for REDD+ Reference Levels: Principles and Recommendations, Meridian Institute  Technical Background Paper IPCC Guidelines for REDD+  Reference Levels, Patrick Van Laake (UN-REDD)  Project Green House Gases Emission