1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2013 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Click to edit Master title style Timeseries of dynamical and precipitation indices Black: observations; RGB: ensemble members for each start date case.

Advertisements

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

Validation of the NCEP CFS forecasts Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC.

INTRODUCTION Although the forecast skill of the tropical Pacific SST is moderate due to the largest interannual signal associated with ENSO, the forecast.

Semyon A. Grodsky and James A. Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, MD The PIRATA (PIlot Research Array moored in the Tropical Atlantic) project.

UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Wind stress distribution is similar to surface wind except magnitude of differences is greater. -Some differences exist between models and observations.

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,

UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.

Tahiti, Darwin, and pressure oscillations. SOI = Tahiti - Darwin (normalized)

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel Wassila M. Thiaw and Kingtse C. Mo Climate Prediction.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

NOAA Climate Obs 4th Annual Review Silver Spring, MD May 10-12, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 1.SSTs for Daily SST OI NOAA’s National.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Outline General concepts Teleconnection Patterns: What they are

Hurricane Climatology and the Seasonal Forecast for the 2012 Hurricane Season John Cole and Andrew McKaughan, NOAA/NWS WFO Newport/Morehead City, NC.

Influence of intraseasonal surface wind variability on ENSO in CFS predictions Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, Arun Kumar, Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center,

Belgrad nov SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France.

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Its Climate Impacts in CMIP3 Models and Observations Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua.

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0.

Water Year Outlook. Long Range Weather Forecast Use a combination of long term predictors –Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) –Phase of Atlantic.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

1 Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP September 7, 2007

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

CPC Monthly Climate Review March 2013 Wanqiu Wang.

CPC Monthly Climate Review May 2013 Wanqiu Wang. 2 Outline 1.ENSO and associated tropical fields 2.Global anomalies 3.Tropical MJO and cyclones 4.CPC.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

Atlantic Hurricane Activity Composites of the WH Warm Pool ( ) Interannual variability of the AWP is large Large AWPs are almost three.

Climate Variability and Basin Scale Forcing over the North Atlantic Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics Division National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

Extratropical Sensitivity to Tropical SST Prashant Sardeshmukh, Joe Barsugli, and Sang-Ik Shin Climate Diagnostics Center.

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 5, 2005.

Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, Boulder Asian Monsoon… K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Examining Fresh Water Flux over Global Oceans in the NCEP GDAS, CDAS, CDAS2, GFS, and CFS P. Xie 1), M. Chen 1), J.E. Janowiak 1), W. Wang 1), C. Huang.

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast September 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 6, 2006.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 14, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,

Predictability of Monthly Mean Temperature and Precipitation: Role of Initial Conditions Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

1 A review of CFS forecast skill for Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar and Yan Xue CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast December 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast August 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 19, 2005.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 7,

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2014 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

IRI Multi-model Probability Forecasts

Question 1 Given that the globe is warming, why does the DJF outlook favor below-average temperatures in the southeastern U. S.? Climate variability on.

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

Preliminary Consensus Forecast for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability

Presentation transcript:

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2013 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA

2 - Real-time skill assessment - Improve forecast through post-processing - Impact of initial condition - Systematic errors Relevance Diagnostics/monitoring of CFS real-time forecasts

3 Outline 1. SST indices 2. Spatial maps 3. Anomaly correlation skill 4. Prediction of sea ice extent minimum

4 1. SST indicies

5 Nino34 DMI MDR SST indices Nino34  Stronger amplitude of both positive and negative phases  Delayed transition of ENSO phases at longer lead-time DMI  Good forecast for 2010 negative DMI.  Failed to reproduce positive DMI in 2012 MDR  Underestimate the amplitude of warm anomalies during Jan-Jul 2011  Too warm at the beginning of 2014.

6 CFSv2 Nino34 SST raw anomalies Nino3.4 SST is near normal during 2013.

7 CFSv2 Nino34 SST with amplitude correction Because of the weak amplitude, the correction does not have significant impact on the predicted Nino3.4 SST index.

8 CFSv2 Nino34 SST with PDF correction Because of the weak amplitude, the correction does not have significant impact on the predicted Nino3.4 SST index.

9 2. Spatial maps CFSv2 forecast is at a lead of 20 days or so. For example, forecast for Jun-Jul-Aug is from initial conditions of May 1-10 th. Impacts of atmospheric initial conditions should be largely removed. Anomaly = Total – Clim

10 Forecast for MAM 2013  Weak anomalies in the Tropical Pacific. Relatively larger SST anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic.  Westward shift of observed pattern in N. Pacific  Larger amplitude of negative rainfall anomalies in equatorial Central Pacific. Incorrect rainfall parrern over the Nordeste and equatorial Atlantic.

11 Forecast for MAM 2013  Good forecast of negative T2m anomalies over northwest of North America. Poor forecast for Eurasia..  Poor forecast of the Z200 anomaly pattern.

12 Forecast for JJA 2013  CFSv2 failed to capture the spatial coverage of cold SST anomalies in the Tropical eastern Pacific.  CFSv2 produced reasonable pattern of tropical precipitation anomalies.

13 Forecast for JJA 2013  CFSv2 failed to capture the observed warm anomalies over North America and Europe.  CFSv2 failed to capture the assicated Z200 anomaly patter.

14 Forecast for SON 2013  CFSv2 captured the overall SST warmth and spatial anomaly patter..  Precipitation is reasonable, although the amplitude is small in both observation and forecast.

15 Forecast for SON 2013  T2m anomalies in CFSv2 are too weak.  Overall Z200 pattern is not captured by CFSv2, although the model reproduced the positive anomalies in North Pacific.

16 Forecast for DJF 2013/2014  CFSv2 reproduced the observed pattern but with weaker amplitude for the tropical negative anomalies.  CFSv2 predicted the observed above normal rainfall in the Tropical western Pacific and below normal rainfall in the Tropical central Pacific

17 Forecast for DJF 2013/2014  CFSv2 captured overall T2m pattern in North America but failed to produced the observed anomalies in Eurasian continent.  CFSv2 captured the positive Z200 anomalies in polar regions but failed to reproduce the variability in mid-latitudes. It is interesting to see that Z200 anomalies in high latitudes are well reproduced in AMIP runs as well as the 0-day-lead forecasts. Since the AMIP simulation is quite reasonable, does the erroneous Z200 anomalies at 20-day-lead time mean the ocean surface conditions became erroneous after 20 days?

18 Forecast for OND 2013  CFSv2 produced erroneous warm anomalies in the equatorial Central-Eastern Pacific.  CFSv2 incorrectly predicted below (above) normal rainfall over Maritime continent (western Pacific).

19 Forecast for JFM 2014  CFSv2 failed to reproduce the observed negative anomalies.  Yet, the CFSv2 predicted reasonable rainfall pattern in the tropical Pacific, while the prediction of rainfall anomalies in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic is poor.

20 3. Anomaly correlation skill

21 Pattern correlation over tropical Pacific 20S-20N Incorrect rainfall anomaly pattern in the Pacific (slide 19)

22 Pattern correlation over tropical Indian Ocean 20S-20N

23 Pattern correlation over tropical Atlantic 20S-20N

24 Pattern correlation over tropical oceans 20S-20N

25 Pattern correlation over NH  T2m skill is very changeable with successful prediction for MAM 2012 and low skill for many other periods.  Very low precipitation skill for most of the period  Moderate PNA skill after SON 2011, except for 2013 Spring. 20N-80N

26 4. Artic September sea ice extent

Obs=5.35 CFSv2

CFSv2 predicted sea ice extent for September 2013 (10 6 km 2 ) Obs=3.61 Observation  CFSv2 underestimated sea ice extent in the prediction from Jan – Aug 2013 initial conditions.