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INITIAL CONDITION: 5 th July 2015 Extended range prediction during 2015 season Extended range prediction during 2015 season

Real-time forecast based on 5 th July 2015 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members).

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days

Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions predicted by MME

Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted by MME

Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted by MME

Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted by MME

Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted by MME

Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted by MME

The next 20 days forecast indicates that  1) Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the monsoon activity will be largely subdued over Indian landmass for next 20 days except foothills of Himalayas. Continuous rainfall along the foothills may increase the water level in the rivers of North India.  2) The forecast during July indicates that there will be absence of large scale monsoon system resulting in below normal rainfall during July.  3) MISO associated convective activity is expected to form over Indian ocean after days and likely to move towards Central India around 25 th July.  4) MJO associated strong convection over Western Pacific may weaken after 15 days and may enhance the convective activity over Indian land after 20 days. Key points from the present forecast

MISO forecast and its verification