DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

EVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS 200 NATIONS AND 7 BILLION PEOPLE 200 NATIONS AND 7 BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE

CITYCITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

A FOCUS ON HAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

PURPOSE: I nformation from these assessments will facilitate the adoption and implementation of policies that will enable the city to be prepared when it happens.

HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS HAZARD-- What are the potential disaster agents of the flood, earthquake, severe windstorm, etc. and how often does each one occur? VULNERABILITY – Does the city’s built environment have weaknesses with respect to any of the potential disaster agents? What are they?

RISK AND LOSS ASSESSMENTS RISK—What is the chance of loss when the potential disaster agents of a natural hazard interact with vulnerable elements of the built environment of a city? LOSS OF FUNCTION– The degree and distribution of the losses of function? SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS-- How many homeless? Jobless, Injured? Dead? And what is the economic loss?

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE HUR- RICANE MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE HUR- RICANE MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE TY- PHOON MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE TY- PHOON MAKE LANDFALL? HOW BIG (CAT)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

TSUNAMI (INDONESIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? WHEN?, HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

VOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? DURATION? HOW BIG (VEI)? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? LOCATION? DURATION? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LIGHTNING STRIKES WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIES

LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? LOCATION AND SIZE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? LOCATION AND SIZE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? LOCATION AND SIZE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR? LOCATION AND SIZE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

HAZARD MAPPING AND RISK MODELING EXAMPLE: HAZUS MULTIPLE- HAZARDE

OBJECTIVE Clarify the capabilities and levels of analysis of the HAZUS-MH Risk Model

OTHER HAZARDS NOTE: HAZUS has now been extended to include floods and severe windstorms, along with earthquakes..

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, loss estimation methodology that was established in the early 1980’s It is the standard for earthquake loss estimation by governments in earthquake-prone regions of the United States.

LOSS ESTIMATION EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS EVENT VULNERABILITY PEOPLE STRUCTURES PROPERTY ENVIRONMENT INFRASTRUCTURE EXPOSURE EXPECTED LOSS

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE More than 137 earthquake and software professionals contributed to the development of the program through working groups, oversight groups, pilot studies in Boston, MA and Portland, OR, and calibration studies combining data and experience.

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE Loss estimation for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters of the community’s hazard and built environments into a comprehensive risk model.

OTHER EARTHQUAKE LOSS MODELS Private-sector companies (e.g., insurers and large business enterprises) have their own proprietary loss estimation models, which may differ from HAZUS in some areas of analysis..

GOOD DECISION MAKING HAZUS -- Earthquake provides a reliable tool for loss estimation, which is essential for good decision making about earthquake resilience at the local, region, state, and national levels of government.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS is “a work in progress” that can only get better with time as new data (e.g., fragility curves for some elements of the community’s hazard and built environment) and new experiences are added after posteartquake studies of future damaging earthquakes.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS will provide relative answers, but not absolute answers for all communities and all situations, but like the “Law of large numbers” underpinning the business of insurance, the answers will converge and provide a reasonable solution.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS develops a loss estimation scenario that is based on specific information on the community’s hazard and built environments. The latter data are provided by the user.

SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS contains generic default data bases if the community does not have all of the required information on parameters characterizing its hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS’ default data bases are linked to good performance in past earthquakes (i.e., to the adoption and enforcement of building codes and lifeline standards).

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS’ default databases include: characterization of the hazard, characterization of elements of the exposure, characterization of elements of vulnerability, and characterization of parameter uncertainty, BUT not community-specific databases.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS provides the user with the option of replacing the basic databases (i.e., the “default” databases) with community-specific databases.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE HAZUS is most accurate when applied to a class of buildings and infrastructure in the community that is very similar to those in the default database, and least accurate when applied to a specific building or a specific element of infrastructure.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE Losses from earthquakes of M6.0 or less tend to be overestimated, and losses from great earthquakes of M8.0 to M9.5 may be so catastrophic that they are overwhelming and meaningless for scenario planning.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE Loss estimates for some global communities will have greater uncertainty than loss estimates for other communities (e.g., in California). Nevertheless, they are still useful for forming public policy for disaster resilience.

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM The community at risk should form a team comprised of: 1. Geologist (s) 2. Seismologist (s) 3. Structural engineer (s) 4. Geotechnical engineer (s)

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM 5. Economist (s) – finance officers 6. Sociologist(s) 7. Emergency planner(s), from state office of emergency services 8. Public works personnel 9. Loss estimation users. 10. Local business leader

THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IS A “24/7” EFFORT KNOW YOUR HAZARDS KNOW YOUR CITY KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN… KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM… KNOW YOUR HAZARDS KNOW YOUR CITY KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN… KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM…