Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma 24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai

Outline Intro to energy –Energy history –World energy situation –Renewable energy Burma –Default scenarios –For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports –For electrification: dam & diesel generation, likely power imports from Thailand Addressing the Thai side –Removing bias in load forecasting –Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field Addressing the Burma side –Some clean community energy options

Outline Intro to world energy –Energy history –World energy situation Burma energy situation –Energy exports to Thailand –Energy for domestic use Renewable energy –For village-scale applications –For sale to main grid Addressing the Burma side –Some clean community energy options

History of Human Energy Use Energy sourceYears in useComment Solar energy + biomass~ 2,000,000Humans have relied on energy from sun & plants since species began Animal power~ 7,500Animals used for riding, hauling, and cultivation Water and wind power~ 2,500Travel by sail, wind and water used for pumping, mechanical tasks Steam engine / coal~ 250Industrial Revolution powered by steam engines, abundant coal Electric motors / generators / grid ~ 125Edison Pearl St Station, 1882; Tesla AC motor/generator 1890s Internal combustion engine / oil ~ 125Pennsylvania oil 1859; Benz/Otto ICE vehicle 1885; Ford Model T 1908 Nuclear power~ 50Product of nuclear weapons development in US, USSR Modern renewables / low- carbon sources ~ 25California, Denmark, Germany, China

Edison Pearl Street Station - first electric distribution system, 1882 China, water-powered trip hammer, Han Dynasty CA 200 BC Watt steam engine ca. 1775Benz automobile ca Oil well, Pennsylvania, 1861

The rise of global dependence on fossil fuels World primary energy supply, Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass Coal drove growth ; oil & gas drove it (2x faster)

In the USA…

Current world energy system - the positive Cheap Convenient Mature technologies

oil dependence –price volatility, developing country debt, resource conflict carbon emissions –climate change growth in consumption Unequal distribution –of consumption and impacts Current world energy system - the negative

Current Energy System in a Nutshell Those “upwind, upstream, and uptime” enjoy convenient services at artificially low prices. Those “downwind, downstream, and downtime” face the consequences

Where we’re at progress is slow toward alternatives –fossil fuels 90% in 1980, 86% in 2005 change is difficult to achieve –consumption habits, prices don’t reflect externalities, vested interests time is short for transforming the system –already happening: climate change, oil wars, energy poverty, debt crises Masters & Randolph, 2008

No Technological “Silver Bullet” oil and gas: not enough resources coal:not enough atmosphere biomass:not enough land hydropower & wind:not enough sites nuclear fission:too unforgiving nuclear fusion:too difficult Solar :too expensive hydrogen:not a “source”: needs energy to produce it end-use efficiency:needs end-users who are paying attention From John P. Holdren, “The Energy Innovation Imperative,” 2006

Elements of a solution Sustainable energy technologies Change markets Change consumption behavior Change policies Change institutions

Sustainable energy technologies Renewable Energy: making use of flows of energy that are naturally replaced (wind, sun, biomass)

Problems for renewables Cost Technical maturity Technical fit Geographic mismatch Limits to renewability

World Wind Energy Growth Source: World Wind Energy Association

World Biofuel Growth

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, SOURCE: AER 2006

Energy situation in Burma (?) Energy shortages –blackouts, fuel rationing High energy costs High human suffering from impacts of large energy projects –Large hydro –Gas Unequal distribution of energy, of impacts

Big hydro – for export to Thailand & domestic use Used to make: –6% of Thailand’s electricity, –60% of Burma’s electricity (most dams are in ethnic minority areas) Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand. –Limited sites left in Thailand –Strong environmental opposition… –“Build in Burma instead!!!” Environmental issues –Inundation –Fish killed –Global warming –Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime Can be cheap –If reasonably close to load centers

Tasang 7,000 MW Upper Salween 4,000 MW Lower Salween 500 MW Hut Gyi 1,200 MW Yawatit 600 MW Tanaosri 720 MW Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand

Natural gas Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) –1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes from Burma –20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay for Burmese gas Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government –Accounts for fully half of Burma’s exports in 2006 –US$2.16 billion to junta from Thailand. –Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas, Nippon Oil, etc. Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch rma16995.htm rma16995.htm

Rural electrification - Burma In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s million population lived without electricity. Goal: electrification rates to 60% by 2020.

Diesel

Sell electricity to Thailand cheap, buy back expensive 2 baht/kWh 8 baht/kWh 1 baht/kWh

Can we imagine something different?

Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it Source: The World Bank (1993) Demand Side Management (saving electricity) Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! 1.5

The Arun-3 story Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal Sell electricity to India, rural electrification Nepalese NGOs and small business: “Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy” World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of: –over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3 –at ½ the cost –In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

Renewable energy fuels and uses End use ElectricityMech power / pumping Water heating CookingTransportation TechnologyOff-gridOn-grid BiomassGasifier●●● Biogas●●●● Steam turbine ● Direct combustion ●● Biodiesel or ethanol ●●● Micro- hydro ●●● Solar●●●●● Wind●●●

1. Village and household scale 2. National scale (connecting to national grid)

Biodiesel

Efficient Charcoal

Micro-hydroelectricity Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

Hydraulic ram pump

Hydraulic ram pump

Community micro-hydro Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW Community cooperative Sells electricity to the national grid

Solar cooking

replace LED lighting and 0.5-5W solar panels, coupled with microfinance energy loans, can end kerosene lighting Barefoot Power is a social enterprise delivering such solutions

Solar home systems 25,000 baht per household system 120 watts Electricity for 2 lights + TV

Thai solar home systems 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge

Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings 7 trainings ( ) >90 medics trained 35 clinics

Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator Each powers 12 computers

Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV Project size: 1 MW Uses self-manufactured a-Si

Solar water heating

Biogas for cooking Katchin State, Burma

Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi

Biogas from Pig Farms

Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity 3 x 1 MW gas generators Korat Waste to Energy – biogas … an early Thai VSPP project

Biomass Gasification Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan 400 kW

Gasifier electricity from wood

Rice husk-fired power plant 9.8 MW Roi Et, Thailand

Technical regulations: Allowable voltage, frequency, THD variations Protective relays – 1-line diagrams for all cases: Induction Synchronous Inverters Single/multiple Connecting at different voltage levels (LV or MV) Communication channels Commercial regulations: Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogeneration Cost allocation Principle of standardized tariff determination Invoicing and payment arrangements Arbitration $ + Standardized Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations 2002 – VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet – Up to 1 MW export, renewables only – Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT) 2006 – Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogeneration – Feed-in tariff “adder” – If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy 2009 – Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset diesel for English version of regulations, and model PPA

Thai VSPP feed-in tariff adders Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = U.S. dollars FuelAdderAdditional for diesel offsetting areas Additional for 3 southern provinces Years effective Biomass Capacity <= 1 MW $ $ Capacity > 1 MW $ $ Biogas <= 1 MW $ $ > 1 MW $ $ Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Fermentation $ $ Thermal process $ $ Wind <= 50 kW $ $ > 50 kW $ $ Micro-hydro 50 kW - <200 kW $ $ <50 kW $ $ Solar $ $ Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT charge Biomass tariff = $ $ $0.027 = $0.085/kWh

July 2010 Thailand VSPP Status 847 MW online PPAs signed for additional 4283 MW

Decentralized generation Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used

Energy efficient end-use Solar Wind power Biomass Customers Power plant Old way New way Power plant Biomass

Energy waste in a typical pumping system

Sankey Energy Flow Diagram

Cogeneration Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

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