Carbon Capture and Storage: What Does Integrated Assessment Modelling Analysis Tell Us? Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

| 1 CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach

| CCS in Electricity in 2050 across models (striped bars) 2 Source: Clarke L, Krey V, Weyant J, and Chaturvedi V Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from Asian modelling exercise. Energy Economics 34 (3), S293-S305

| Scenarios for policy analysis Reference scenario A two degree scenario with all technologies A no CCS scenario GCAM can analyze permutations of energy technology and climate policy scenarios 3

| Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004) 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies Tracks 15 greenhouse gases Dynamic-recursive model Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007)

| Business As Usual Scenario 5 Coal, nuclear, biomass, and solar important in India’s energy mix Globally, natural gas to have highest share, followed by coal CCS will have no penetration unless there is a carbon price

| What happens under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario? 6 Nuclear energy (33%), solar energy (34%) and CCS (25%) become critical for India Globally it is CCS, followed by nuclear, wind and solar energy Global share of CCS in electricity increases from 2% in 2030 to 16% in Corresponding CO2 price is 44US$/tCO2 in 2030and 72 US$/tCO2 in 2040

| 7 Non availability of CCS means that global emission peaking year has to shift early Cost of mitigation and carbon price increases dramatically Absence of CCS increases cost by over 3% of GDP in 2095, if India wants to act to meet a 2 degree target What happens if CCS technology is not commercialized under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?

| First order estimates of geological storage potential of CCS in GCAM (in GtCO2) 8 Coal Basins Depleted Oil Plays Gas Basins Deep Saline Formation On-shore Deep Saline Formation Off-shoreTotal USA Canada Western Europe Japan Australia Former Soviet Union China Middle East Africa Latin America Southeast Asia Eastern Europe Korea India Total Global Capacity ,9521,3797,178

| Key Discussion Issues When does CCS come in as a big sink for carbon globally?: Only beyond 2030, when technology cost declines and carbon price increases Shift in peak emissions: When no CCS, higher mitigation to be done in the near term BioCCS?: Global versus domestic potential of bioenergy KEY CONCLUSION: NO TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE MITIGATION PORTFOLIO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COST EFFECTIVENESS! STORAGE POTENTIAL AND COST CURVES NEEDED FROM INDIA. CCS READY PLANTS IMPORTANT. 9

| 10 THANK YOU

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