LOCAL MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC.

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Presentation transcript:

LOCAL MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

THE GREAT RECESSION

CURRENT RECESSION RELATIVE TO SIMILAR FINANCIAL CRISIS RECESSIONS

EMPLOYED POPULATION RATIO Ages Years

PART TIME EMPLOYMENT

LONG TERM UNEMPLOYED

UNEMPLOYED SHIFTING TO DISABLED

FAMILY INCOME TRENDS BY QUINTILE Family Income Down Net Worth Down 40% from 2007

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR Portland Metro Area – OLMIS and Johnson Reid

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR Portland Metro Area – OLMIS and Johnson Reid

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS REAL ESTATE MARKETS ARE CYCLICAL, NOT LINEAR

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE National Trends

PRICE TO RENT RATIO National Trends

CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX TRENDS

POPULATION GROWTH BY TYPE

MAJOR DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS AGING BABY BOOMERS –Less affluent than expected –Lost Equity/Negative Positions YOUNG BABY BOOMERS –Changing retirement plans –Kids later, high income demands CHILDREN OF BABY BOOMERS –Generation Y, Millennials, Echo Boom –It’s all about them

RESIDENTIAL IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS INCREASED INTEREST IN HIGHLY AMENITIZED LOCATIONS –Willingness to swap space and price for amenities –Urban amenities with a practical impact VALUE ADDED STRATEGY IN PRIME LOCATIONS –Small units carefully sited –No parking?

RENTAL APARTMENT MARKET TRENDS Portland Metro Area

DISTRIBUTION OF PORTLAND METRO RENTAL APARTMENT PIPELINE

PIPELINE AS A PERCENT OF CURRENT BASE

HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS DEMAND INCREASING –Losses to tenure split ending –Rising rental pricing –Continued low interest rates PIPELINE DRY –Very little new construction –Lot supply limited –Pricing must rise to replacement cost

LOCAL RENTAL APARTMENTS NO LONGER A CAN’T MISS MARKET –Production Cycle Well Underway –Attention Needs to be Paid to Pipeline –Infill, Understand Micro Markets –Quality Locations –Urban Amenity Profile –“Sustainable Competitive Position” DEATH OF SUBURBS OVERSOLD