The Pressing Issues for Mobility Alan E. Pisarski AMERICAN DREAM COALITION Orlando 10/11/2010

In the Great Recession- and after This is a critical time to recognize that trips have economic or social transactions at their end of value to the trip maker and the society Does America have the mobility it needs to meet its social and economic goals today? Almost! There are tasks undone and new anti- mobility policy challenges!

We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns A replacement labor force of ? size & skills A rapidly increasing dependent older pop A pop heavily defined by immigration policy Changes in energy & environment costs Other intervening new technologies All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.

Not Much Growth to Drive VMT Half of pop change Half annual rate

The Tools of Travel are Stable Licenses Saturation in all ages Women’s gains Immigrants Vehicles Stability Aging fleet Workers = Drivers IN THIS DECADE: NO GROWTH IN VMT, CONGESTION, WORKERS, OR WORK TRAVEL TIMES

African American Surge in Vehicle Ownership - % HH without vehicles Differences in access to vehicles by race & ethnicity will diminish beyond 2020 CAN ANYONE SAY THIS IS A BAD THING?

Given all this stability Need a focus on current needs not impending growth A new context for planning. “Getting the Economy out of the mud!” The mobility issues we face are eminently solvable. Keep asking this question: “IS IT A NEW TREND OR JUST THE ECONOMY?”

Who, What Will Support The Economy? Keep older workers at work More women at work More immigrants More multi-tasking More variable work schedules More Division of Labor More Productivity More competitive in world markets ENHANCED MOBILITY SUPPORTS ALL OF THESE

A New Role For Older Workers Alan E. Pisarski A DOUBLING OF WORKERS OVER 65 BY 2030

Prosperity is … “Prosperity is simply time saved, which is proportional to the division of labor.” Matt Ridley The Rational Optimist

Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income Level Doesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes Future

MOBILITY WE VALUE IT HIGHLY, BUT: –WE CAN’T DEFINE IT USEFULLY –WE CAN’T QUANTIFY IT EFFECTIVELY U.S. DOT, FOUNDED ON APRIL FOOLS DAY 1967, PRODUCES A PRODUCT THAT IT DOESN’T UNDERSTAND AND DOESN’T SEEM TO MUCH CARE ABOUT!

WHAT ARE ITS ATTRIBUTES? Speed Cost Convenience Safety/ Security Reliability All The Things That We Measure Badly!

WILL IT STILL MATTER IN THE FUTURE? MORE THAN EVER! THE CRITICAL NEED FOR SKILLED WORKERS EXPANDING OPPORTUNITY COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN A GLOBALIZED ECONOMY KNITTING TOGETHER SOCIETIES

In a World of Low Job Opportunities, Like Now Job-hungry, often house-frozen, will expand the range they will consider to find an acceptable (any?) job I am willing to go farther for a job I can: –Get –Do –That is attractive (pay, opportunity, benefits) Maybe switch later when market improves

When high opportunity job market returns (2012?) Opportunities mainly for those with specialized skills Increased specialization means going farther for a job –Fast Food? – down the block –Energy Research? – vast Distances WE DON’T LIVE OUTSIDE THE FACTORY GATE ANYMORE!

Present “Livability” approach is anti-mobility If you really want it; live next to it ! I don’t shop at the corner grocer anymore –Not lettuce but 16 kinds of lettuce –Not milk but 10 kinds of milk I don’t have one Doctor for my family –We probably have a dozen –None selected by the criterion of distance!

The options exist now to achieve “livability” if we choose TO GO TO THE NEAREST JOB SHOPPING DOCTORS HOUSE OF WORSHIP HOW MANY DO? TO MOVE SO THAT YOU ARE NEARER WORK ARE NEARER MEDS ARE NEARER SHOPS ARE NEARER OTHER THINGS YOU VALUE HOW MANY DO?

What’s Freight? Freight doesn’t exist in livability world If it does – its on trains – out of sight Not seen as related to: –International competitiveness –Supporting/Enhancing the good life

LIVEABILITY – IT’S THE CITIES’ TURN Mayors love it Direct funding from Washington Get the states out of the way Where else will the money come from?

“Livability” as a funding criterion Present emphasis on “Performance Measurement” will become a charade “Livability”, like “sprawl”, has no tangible meaning A Perfect Federal Funding Tool –No quantitative criteria –Can’t measure success or failure – “Now I can fund my friends!”

Ultimately fed-centric – a smart guy in Washington will decide. “Nationalize” investment decision-making “Ear-marking” by other means focus on “jobs” means focus on public sector jobs – Transit, HSR, The Highway Trust Fund would be gone Revenue from highway and aviation taxes Spending would be “Mode-Neutral”

Next Surface Legislation Pro - or Anti-Mobility? A year late already –Lame Duck Session unlikely –At least 6 months away in New Congress Outlook – better bill - more bleak Need 40% increase in revenue – no VMT Gen Rev input “justifies” use of Trust Fund for anything – THREAT IS DISSOLUTION OF HTF CONCEPT

PRESSING ISSUES FOR A PRO-MOBILITY POLICY 1.Understand It And Quantify It 2.Transmit That Understanding To Others 1.Decision-makers 2.The Public 3.Expand The Debate 4.Make The Case For The Value Of Mobility 5.Read “Mobility First”

THANK YOU Alan E. Pisarski ALANPISARSKI.COM

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY – A WORK PROGRAM EXTENDING ITS REACH – THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY RESPONDING TO RISING DEMAND – THE DILEMMA OF AFFLUENCE ENHANCING ITS COMPETITIVE POWER – THE ROUTE TO PRODUCTIVTY AMELIORATING ITS NEGATIVE EFFECTS – SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT, RESOURCES SUPPORTING ITS VALUE – MAKING THE CASE

Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be a Safety Challenge

WE HAVE SURVIVED A DIFFICULT PERIOD the baby boomers coming of age ---- working age and driving age Women joining the labor force in vast numbers Extraordinary growth in Just-in-Time Freight Extraordinary growth in Foreign Trade

Facets of the same Mobility Concept # of suppliers ½ hr of my factory # of workers ½ hr of my office #of job opportunities ½ hr of my home # of customers ½ hr from my store % pop with major hospital ½ hr away % pop with major Univ. 1 hour away

Example: Hospital-mobility trade-off Goal: A major medical services facility within ½ hr of all citizens TRANSPORT SIDE Public/private transportation system provides enhanced access Multi-purpose SUPPLY SIDE Specialization yields vast market-sheds Build more hospitals; train more doctors Single purpose

The Strategic Plan and Mobility INSTEAD OF: 1.% of NHS with acceptable ride 2.% of bridges deficient CONSIDER: 1.% of VMT on NHS with acceptable ride 2.% of VMT on deficient bridges

Most trips are under 10 miles-95NPTS

HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE We can do it if we work together!

Transportation share of Spending - Selected Groups

But that sum for Racial and Ethnic groups is higher 50.6% 54.1%52.8%

1995 NPTS

Comparative measures of travel by density

Mode Choice by Income - CIA II

TWO ASPECTS MOBILITY - An Attribute of People ACCESSIBILITY - An Attribute of Places Measured in opportunities per minute

THE C&P AND MOBILITY MAX INVEST scenario = $94b yields -3.2% saving in vehicle op. costs; -0.9% saving in travel time costs; -2.3% saving in crash costs. What is the impact on the economy of such a change? Total user costs declines by 1.8% in MAX. INVEST scenario – IS THAT ALL WE CAN DO?

At the Millennium American society is highly dependent on mobility for all economic and social interactions. This is: –Negative in that it generates high interdependence in the society; –Positive because it generates most of the tremendous economic benefits of our society. –This is the high wire act of modern societies -POSITIVE WINS-

ISSUES OF MEASUREMENT OPPORTUNITIES PER MINUTE SHARES OF POP WITH ACCESS TO NEEDS BY MINUTES SPENT TRAVEL TIME MONITORING TRAVEL TIME DISTRIBUTIONS EMBEDDED TRANS. COST IN PRODUCTS MOBILITY/ACCESSIBILITY TRADE-OFFS THE LINKAGE WITH DENSITY AND ITS EFFECTS

WHAT THEN IS TRANSPORTATION’S PRODUCT? As A Nation We Invest Vast Sums, Both Private And Public, In Transportation Networks, Vehicles And Services. The “Product” Of That Investment Is “Mobility.” We Obviously Value That Product Highly, But Don’t Seem To Understand It Very Well.

A challenged affluent society in which Mobility is central to meeting our social and economic goals

The Dependents Dividend is gone Dependence ratio to labor force