1 Migration trends (and development interlinkages) Rhodes, 26 April 2007 Georges Lemaitre International Migration Division, OECD

2 Outline A half-century of international migration Labour migration vs other forms of migration Employment outcomes Movements of the highly qualified and brain drain Challenges for the future –Highly qualified –Lower skilled Conclusions

3 A half-century of international migration OECD membership as of 2003, excluding Korea, Mexico and Turkey.

4 Net migration from outside the OECD has tripled since the « guestworker » era.

5 « Permanent » worker migration appears to be common in Europe, but in many countries, it is due to the EU free-movement regime.

6 Good employment results seem to be concentrated in countries which have (or have had) significant unauthorised immigration.

7 A similar result for women, but note the low employment/population ratios of native-born women in southern Europe.

8 OECD immigrants tend to be higher skilled, non-OECD lower skilled than the native-born. (Census data, circa 2000)

9 OECD countries have also lost highly educated due to migration but over time, have more than made up the loss by in-migration.

10 High expatriation of highly qualified is associated with the following: Small population English as a national/second language Caribbean location Low percentage of persons with tertiary attainment But not Low GDP (20-year average) High unemployment (20-year average) Political stability Trade openness

11 Challenges for origin and destination countries Almost all OECD countries are looking for highly educated immigrants, despite large increases in tertiary attainment –Selection by national admin vs selection by employers –Growing increase in international students and in possibility for stay after the completion of study There is little interest in permanent lower skilled migration. –The track record is not good with respect to integration of second generation. –High association with unauthorised movements. –Yet labour needs are there (and few human capital requirements). –How to « organise » the movements for the benefit of all ?

12 Conclusion Increasing international migration is likely to continue. There is a need for a match-up / compromise between the labour-poor North and the labour-rich South. Public perception of benefits is absent or ambivalent in some countries. Negative political discourse can comfort xenophobic attitudes and behaviours. A major challenge.