Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City Group D Members: Jenny Brunnert Lamont Davis Lucas Matecki Ji Zhang Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City Business Intelligence Predictions

Objective Our goal is to predict the homicide rate in the St. Louis City area for 2013. We intend to use data sets and statistical techniques as tools to assist in our prediction.

Homicide Definition “The killing of one human being by another” Justifiable Homicide Authorized by law and not punishable Death sentence or soldier carrying out duties Excusable Homicide Killer was to at fault to some extent, though punishment reduced Fatality due to a provoked fight Criminal Homicide Not justifiable or excusable Murder or Manslaughter http://nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/courseware_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asp Three categories of Homicide: Justifiable homicide, Excusable homicide, and Criminal homicide.

Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities Rank City Violent Crime per 100,000 People 1 Flint, MI 2,337 2 Detroit, MI 2,137 3 St. Louis, Mo 1,857 4 Oakland, CA 1,683 5 Memphis, TN 1,584 6 Little Rock, AK 1,490 7 Birmingham, AL 1,483 8 Atlanta, GA 1,433 9 Baltimore, MD 1,417 10 Stockton, CA 1,408 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous-cities-in-america.html?page=all

Introduction According to the FBI 2011 data results, St. Louis is currently ranked the 3rd dangerous city in America when referring to crime. http://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2/3/ Though, numbers have decrease since the pass years (2010), St. Louis still remains unchanged on the list over the past year. Violent Crimes per 1,000 people has risen from 17.5 to 18.6. Including the city’s murder rate to be the 4th highest in the nation, it’s robbery rate to be the 5th highest in the nation, and its aggravated assault rate to be the 3rd highest in the nation. 58th largest city in U.S. according to The city rank by population as of July 1, 2011, as estimated by the United States Census Bureau http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population 79 Neighborhoods http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louis http://stlouis-mo.gov/government/departments/planning/documents/upload/CitywideNeighborhoodMap_TabloidSzRev.pdf Violent crimes per 1,000: 18.6 Population: 320,454 58th largest city in U.S. 79 Neighborhoods Murder, Robbery and Aggravated Assault ranked highest in nation

2010 Compared to 2013 http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60 Total Crime Incidents: 29,947 Property Crime: 22,336 Violent Crime: 7,104 Total Crime Incidents: 34,935 Property Crime: 27, 324 Violent Crime: 6,205

Homicide in 2013 https://www.crimereports.com/

Predict the Homicide in 2013 Analysis Approach Collecting data Find the factors Trend Two Ways of Analysis Predict the Homicide in 2013 Data Analysis

What factors might impact the rates? Population Sex Race Age Unemployment Education Gang Activity Gun accessibility Drug Trade http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

Population From 1980 to 2008… 57.7% of homicides occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more In cities with 1 million or more, the homicide rate decreased from 35.5 homicides per 100,000 residents (1991) to 11.9 per 100,000 residents (2008) in the U.S. http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

Sex From 1980 to 2008… 77% of homicide victims are male For males, the homicide rate (11.6 per 100,000) is 3 times higher than that of females (3.4 per 100,000) http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

Race From 1980 to 2008 Data shows that African-American has seemingly higher rates The victim rate (27.8 per 100,000) The homicide rate (19.6 per 100,000) http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

Age From 1980 to 2008… 53.2% of murder victims and 65.5% of offenders were between age 18-34 The homicide rate for ages 18 – 24 reaches 17.1 victims per every 100,000, while the rate per every 100,000 offenders peaks at 29.3

Unemployment A study of homicide in eight major cities in the United States shows that when employment declined, homicide rates increased, and when employment increased homicide rates dropped. http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf

Education Connected with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft. Research shows that education reduces crime. “By raising earnings, education raises the opportunity cost of crime and the cost of time spent in prison. ” http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~moretti/lm46.pdf

Unpredictable Factors Gang Activity (from 1993 through 2003) Gangs are often responsible for the firearms violent incidents, especially those incidents involving youths. Gun accessibility (2009) According to FBI report, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides. Research shows that firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates. Drug Trade “Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. ” The competition for customers and drug markets can cause homicide. http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf Some of the factors are basically related to the other factors, such as sex and age. It’s hard to get the actual information about gang activity, Gun accessibility, and drug trade. Gang Activity From 1993 through 2003, gang members perpetrated approximately 373,000 of the 6.6 million violent victimizations that occurred each year. Gangs are often responsible for violent incidents involving the use of firearms, especially those incidents involving youths. Gun accessibility In 2009, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides analyzed by the FBI. Research findings indicate firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates. Drug Trade Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. Those involved in the drug trade are more likely to resort to violence due to competition for customers and drug markets and as a way to solve disputes.

Prediction from data Total Murder #: 118 Rank Neighborhood Year 2013 1 Baden 9 2 JeffVanderLou 3 College Hill 5 4 Dutchtown Gravois Park 6 Well/Goodfellow 7 Carondelet 8 Hamilton Heights North Point 10 Penrose Total Murder #: 118

Prediction from data A combination of black people, male rate, and high school graduation rate has the smallest standard error.

Prediction from data Total Murder #: 82 Y= 0.000856759Xa+3.278571742Xb-3.591220139Xc

Prediction from research Downward trend in crime from 2010 Looking at crime rate statistics, higher reports of homicides will fall in downtown cities of St. Louis Baden Walnut Park East While several factors play a significant role to affect the numbers of homicides Budget cuts create lower number of police force and security

Conclusion Any Questions?

Sources http://nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/coursewar e_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asp http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous- cities-in-america.html?page=all http://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous- cities-in-america-2/3/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_ by_population http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louis http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st- louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60

http://maps.stlouisco.com/police/index.html http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf