TENVA Ankara, 9 September 2014 MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES MEP Turkey

Provides energy supply/demand outlook to 2030 by sector by fuel Two energy demand scenarios: Conservative Scenario Proactive Scenario CO 2 emissions Energy import bill Energy investment requirements MEP TURKEY

The Conservative Scenario takes into current policies and ongoing projects, but adopts a cautious approach regarding the implementation of new policy measures and planned projects. The Proactive Scenario assumes strong efforts to diversify the energy supply mix to favor domestic energy resources, clean energy technologies and prompt implementation of energy demand management programs. THE ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS

Setting main model assumptions 4 Population : 0.9% : 0.8% GDP : IMF WEO : 4.1% Energy prices International Domestic

AN OVERVIEW OF OVERALL RESULTS

ANA BAŞLIKLAR 6 SEKTÖREL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİNİN YAPISINI YANSITMAYA DEVAM EDECEK KÖMÜRÜN STRATEJİK SEÇİMİ PETROLE BAĞIMLILIK DEVAM EDECEK DOĞAL GAZIN GELECEĞİ BİR YOL AYRIMINDA ELEKTRİK TALEBİ KONTROL ALTINA ALINABILIR YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ POTANSİYELİ BÜYÜK KAZANIMLAR VADEDİYOR FOSİL YAKIT KAYNAKLI KİRLİLİK BÜYÜYEN BİR SORUN OLMAYA DEVAM EDECEK İTHALATA BAĞIMLILIK ENERJİ FATURASINI YÜKSELTECEK ENERJİ SEKTÖRÜ BÜYÜK YATIRIMLAR GEREKTİRECEK ULUSLARARASI ENERJİ MERKEZİ OLARAK TÜRKİYE

ENERGY DEMAND AND GDP Energy demand is set to double in the Conservative Scenario. 20% less energy would be needed in Proactive Scenario.

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE Turkey’s energy future will remain fossil fuel based, although the share of RES would increase to 15% in PS.

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR More energy will continue to be consumed to generate electricity than any other sector.

PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION Will not increase as fast as demand

Mtoe2012$ bn ANNUAL NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL Will increase from $55 bn in 2012 to $104 bn in 2030

NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL Cumulative net energy import bill over will be more than double that of

NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS Total investment need between 2013 and 2030 = $260 bn (in 2012 dollars) (Of this, $173 bn between ) Electricity sector will account for > 65% of this total, It will be followed by oil (~ 25%)

ENERGY INTENSITY Set to decrease in both Scenarios. -5% reduction by 2030 in CS -23% reduction in PS.

CO 2 EMISSIONS CO2 emissions to double by 2030 in CS. 36% lower in the PS.

INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY: Government Targets vs OME Scenarios GW NuclearHydro Wind Solar Geothermal Government targets for non-Hydro RES could be exceed in PS

FUEL SHARES IN POWER GENERATION: Government Targets and OME Scenarios 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% RenewablesCoalGasNuclear Government Target Conservative Scenario Proactive Scenario Future role of natural gas is the key

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL COAL

COAL PRODUCTION Most of Turkey’s coal reserves are lignite. Coal production to more than double between 2012 and 2030.

COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR By 2030, coal demand will grow ~70% in CS and 23% in PS. Power generation will account for half of coal demand.

COAL IMPORTS Majority of the coal demand will continue to be met by imports. Net coal imports (mostly hard coal) may increase to >40 Mt (CS) or decrease to 18Mt (PS) in 2030.

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL OIL

OIL & GAS EXPLORATION still largely under/un- explored….. Less than 4300 wells drilled

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Will continue to decline, by almost 30% between 2012 and 2030, assuming no major discovery

Oil consumption by end-use sectors 25 will more than double (CS) or nearly double (PS)

OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION By 2030, oil demand is expected to nearly double in the PS, and more than double in the CS. (Road) Transport will remain the largest oil consuming sector …despite that pump prices of gasoline and diesel in Turkey are amongst the highest in the world.

NET OIL IMPORTS More than 90% of Turkey’s oil demand is met by imports. Net total oil imports will continue to increase, from over 30 Mt to ~ 70 Mt (CS) or ~60 Mt (PS) by The share of crude in oil imports will be higher than today.

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL NATURAL GAS

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION May increase next decade thanks to tight oil and shale gas, but assuming no major discovery in the Med

GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR Will continue to increase in CS but slightly higher than its 2012 level in PS, due mainly to power generation

TURKEY NET GAS IMPORTS …expected to increase by ~70% between 2012 and 2030 (CS), … approximately the same level (a few bcm higher) in the PS

SUPPLY CONTRACTS vs GAS IMPORT NEED After 2022, supply may not cover the expected demand in CS.

GAS IMPORT NEEDS vs INFRASTRUCTURE Sufficient import capacity, but there is room for Iraqi and East Med gas

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL ELECTRICITY AND RENEWABLES

ELECTRICITY DEMAND by sector Demand for electricity will more than double (CS) or increase 60% (PS) between 2012 and Industry will remain as the largest electricity consuming sector.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION by fuel Electricity generation to increase by ~130% to 2030 in CS. Would be 30% less in the PS. 30%

INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY To increase to 125 GW (CS) or 110 GW (PS) The share of fossil fuel fired plants will decrease to 52% in 2030 (CS), while this decrease will be more pronounced (35%) in PS.

INSTALLED NON-HYDRO RES BASED POWER GEN CAPACITY All non-hydro RES to increase in both scenarios. Wind remains dominant in absolute values. Solar PV has the fastest growth rates. Wind: 2.3 GW  12 GW (CS), 20 GW (PS) Solar : 0  1.3 GW (CS), 4.2 GW (PS)

RENEWABLES CAPACITY ADDITIONS Capacity additions are tame in the CS compared to government previsions and more or less in line for PS

Contact: Pedro Moraleda Teşekkür ederiz...