GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 1 Transport Fuels for the Future Neville Thompson, David Rickeard CONCAWE Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20 February 2002, Geneva

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 2 Achievements to date, future challenges Drivers for changes to fuels Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options CONCAWE activities Conclusions TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 3 DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN REGULATED EMISSIONS

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 4 ROAD TRANSPORT EMISSIONS CONTRIBUTION DECLINING Source: European Commission

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 5 Source : European Commission NEW FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES Future challenge: Reduce CO 2 while maintaining low regulated emissions

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 6 Real benefits when fuel change enables a step change in engine / after-treatment technology MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL QUALITY ACHIEVED Major reductions in gasoline emissions through catalytic converters + lead-free gasoline Further reductions in emissions through low sulphur fuels + advanced after-treatment systems for gasoline and diesel vehicles Lead  Sulphur 

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 7 Achievements to date, future challenges Drivers for changes to fuels Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options CONCAWE activities Conclusions TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 8 FUTURE FUEL NEEDS DEPEND ON VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY  Conventional vehicle developments :Advanced gasoline engines -Direct Injection, Variable Valve Actuation, Downsizing :Improved diesel engines -Multiple high pressure injections, Exhaust gas recirculation :Advanced after-treatment -Lean NOx converters, PM traps, Improved TWC :Hybrids ===> Sulphur-free fuels meet the needs of all these vehicles :Novel combustion systems e.g. HCCI need more study  Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles :Best way to deliver hydrogen to the vehicle still unclear -Gasoline-type, methanol, direct hydrogen ? ===> New fuels will be required, but more work needed

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 9 Changes will be gradual as new vehicles enter the fleet Increased diesel / reduced gasoline demand expected Slow penetration of new technologies, e.g. fuel cell vehicles CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES DOMINATE FUTURE MARKET Source: EUCAR

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 10 Achievements to date, future challenges Drivers for changes to fuels Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options CONCAWE activities Conclusions TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 11 LOWER SULPHUR FUELS ENABLE ADVANCED VEHICLES Advanced engines and after-treatment systems can achieve very low emissions with low Sulphur fuels Influence of other fuel properties becomes small Source: DETR/SMMT/ CONCAWE Particulates programme and AECC LD Diesel NEDC emissions

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 12 REFINERY CO 2 INCREASES WITH FUEL CHANGES Future fuel changes need careful evaluation on a well-to-wheels basis Refinery CO 2 Emissions, EU-15 Source: CONCAWE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 13 GHG EMISSIONS NEED WELL-TO-WHEELS APPROACH Conventional fuels require a relatively small proportion of energy for their manufacture Reducing C/H ratio by hydrogenation is always CO 2 negative Energy use and GHG emissions in production of alternative fuels can be substantial Well-to-wheels approach is needed to identify the best options Definitive answers not easy Results very sensitive to the input assumptions Ongoing research effort needed CONCAWE actively involved

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 14 ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR IC ENGINES No clear advantage for alternative fuels in Internal Combustion Engines –Hybrid vehicles show promise Source: Shell, SAE Paper

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 15 Benefits highly dependent on assumptions on use of co-products Use of all set-aside land in EU-15 would replace < 2% of road transport fuels on an energy basis BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL ENERGY CREDIT Better Net Energy Saved Source: CONCAWE Probably achievable

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 16 Assumptions on agricultural N 2 O emissions are critical Other measures to reduce CO 2 emissions are more cost effective BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL GHG CREDIT Better GHG reduction versus conventional fuels Source: CONCAWE RME, accounting for N2O emissions, refs 4&5

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 17 Achievements to date, future challenges Drivers for changes to fuels Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options CONCAWE activities Conclusions TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 18 WHY ARE FUEL CELL VEHICLES ATTRACTIVE? Potential for high vehicle efficiency –Hence lower CO 2 emissions Very low or zero regulated pollutant emissions GM HydroGen 1TOYOTA FCHV-3 Cautions: Development at an early stage Conventional vehicles compete strongly Best source of hydrogen not yet clear

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 19 FUEL CELLS NEED CLEAN HYDROGEN Free hydrogen does not exist naturally –Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source –It has to be generated from naturally occurring compounds –Implies energy use and hence GHG emissions Hydrogen can be delivered to the vehicle in two ways –Direct hydrogen supply to the vehicle –On-board the vehicle using a hydrogen containing fluid More work is needed on production, supply and storage issues –Codes and standards for safe use also important

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 20 RENEWABLE HYDROGEN HAS LONG TERM POTENTIAL A renewable source of hydrogen would avoid carbon emissions PhotovoltaicsElectrolysisHydrogenHydrogen FCV Large scale renewable hydrogen remains a long way off –Currently high cost, small volumes –Lack of hydrogen storage/distribution infrastructure Near term options still being developed –direct hydrogen –on-board reforming of liquid fuels

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 21 FUEL CELL FUELS - THE OPTIONS Simplest vehicle system No emissions on the vehicle Higher energy density Low emissions Highest energy density Provides highest well to wheel efficiency Infrastructure exists Low emissions Efficient/safe storage solution Emissions from hydrogen production Low energy density Infrastructure development Requires on-board processor Fuel is toxic and water soluble Infrastructure development Requires on-board processor Challenges Benefits On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuels appears the best near term option Hydrogen Methanol Liquid Hydrocarbons, e.g. gasoline Fuel Supplied to Vehicle

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 22 Hydrogen from electrolysis is inefficient with conventional electricity –Renewable or nuclear electricity would change the balance FUEL CELLS AND HYBRIDS OFFER CO 2 IMPROVEMENTS Source: GM-Argonne study based on US data. European study underway

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 23 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO HYDROGEN ? 1 GWh of renewable electricity Feed to power grid to replace coal-generated power CO 2 avoided972 t Produce hydrogen by Electrolysis for use in fuel cell vehicle to replace gasoline hybrid-electric vehicle CO 2 avoided390 t Producing hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles does not maximise the overall GHG benefit Renewable electricity is a limited resource –Can be used in different ways

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 24 Achievements to date, future challenges Drivers for changes to fuels Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options CONCAWE activities Conclusions TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 25 CONCAWE ACTIVITIES CONCAWE committed to principles that developments should be based on sound science, transparency and cost-effectiveness Technology surveys - emissions legislation, - fuel qualities, - engines/after-treatment Technical input on legislative developments Particulate emissions - DG TREN Consortium - GRPE programme Well to wheels analysis on alternate fuels/vehicles - EUCAR/JRC partnership Fuel requirements of advanced engines - diesel - gasoline

GRPE_djrndt_ ppt Slide 26 Co-operative work involving all stakeholders critical to achieving the optimal long term solutions CONCLUSIONS Conventional fuels and vehicles will dominate road transport for the foreseeable future –Lower sulphur maximises the potential of advanced vehicle emissions systems –Changes to other fuel properties provide little emissions benefit Increased application of biofuels needs careful assessment Fuel requirements of advanced engines need to be assessed as the systems are developed Fuel cell vehicles have promise but remain far from volume production –Large scale renewable hydrogen remains far off –On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuel is a promising option Sound “well to wheels” studies are key to evaluating future options –CONCAWE actively supporting work in this area