Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

| 2 || 2 | Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

| 3 || 3 | A Little History  Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997  US Naval Research Laboratory  EVA Airways  MITRE Corporation

| 4 || 4 | Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS AeroSafety World November 2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

| 5 || 5 | Benefits  Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment  Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index  Full explanation and breakdown of risk components  Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

| 6 || 6 | Levels of Use Corporate Management Dispatch, Crew Safety Department

| 7 || 7 | How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies Central Server calculates Risk Index Supporting Operations Databases Safety Manager ALERT!

| 8 || 8 | Input  Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: –Crew Factors –Sector (City-pair) Factors –Aircraft Factors

| 9 || 9 | Input  Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: –Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System –Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases –Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

| 10 | Output  Risk Index –Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0 –Relative score –Compare to baseline (average)  Critical Parameter identification –Identify actionable over-limit parameters

| 11 | Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2 nd level review

| 12 | FORAS Interface (EVA example)

| 13 | Example: Single fleet, single route trend

| 14 | Example: Single fleet comparison

| 15 | What are the critical parameters?

| 16 | Critical Parameters – City pair

| 17 | Critical Parameter – One fleet

| 18 | Method

| 19 | Knowledge-based System Experts Performance Data Studies and Statistics Forensic Event Analyses

| 20 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk

| 21 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communication ExperienceStressors City-Pair Risk LengthAirportEn-routeAircraft RiskMELSuitability

| 22 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on ……Experience……Stressors…… City-Pair Risk Length……Airport……En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability……

| 23 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors…… City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…… En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......…

| 24 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors…… City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…… En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......…

| 25 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors…… City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…… En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......… Computation Flows Upwards

| 26 | Example Risk Factors (ALAR)  Conditions which lead to increased risk  Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): –Inter-crew communication –Crew experience –Experience at airport –Transient fatigue –Cumulative fatigue –Approach and Landing related MEL items –Sector length –ATC skill –Complex approach –Airport congestion –Visual Conditions

| 27 | FORAS Foundation  Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS.  FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management  Managed by a committee of trustees  Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models  Progressively priced based on fleet size  Available installation and training  Stand-alone or cloud-based installation  Generic or customized risk models

| 28 | FORAS Requirements  Crew Roster and Tracking  Flight Information System, MEL data  NOTAM access  Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

| 29 | FORAS Foundation Further Information  Contact Flight Safety Foundation  Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation  Danny Ho, EVA Air

| 30 | Summary

| 31 | Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

| 32 | Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

| 33 | Thank you  Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation