Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIC Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Political Efficacy Voting in elections Learning and understanding political knowledge Having political discussions Attending political meetings Forming interest groups Contacting public officials Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue Financial contributions Running for office Protesting public policies and/or officials

Voting - The Democratic Process Voting exemplifies a “government by the people” The American electorate determine policy and policymakers Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states Vote in local, state, and national elections

Voter Requirements An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote Aliens may not vote Prisoners and convicted felons may not vote States determine registration requirements Residency requirements Usually 30 days Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993) Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license Register by mail

Expansion of Suffrage Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 15th Amendment guaranteed blacks the right to vote (1870) 19th Amendment guaranteed women the right to vote (1920) 23rd Amendment guaranteed right to vote for D.C. (1961) 24th Amendment eliminated poll taxes (1964) Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 eliminated voting restrictions for blacks Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests 26th Amendment guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older (1971)

Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers Older Generations Whites Women Religious Union Members Strong Community Members Strong Political Party Members Competitive Election Districts

Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns Numerous and frequent elections Lack of party identification Similarity between candidates Mistrust in government Apathy or Status Quo Lack of political efficacy Voter registration difficulties Feeling of not belonging to a community

How People Vote Vote based on political party Vote based on the issues Vote based on campaigns Vote based on coalitions

Voting Based on Political Party Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout

Voting Based on the Issues Prospective Voting Vote based on information of issues and candidates Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000 Retrospective Voting Vote based on past events whether successful or failed Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

Voting Based on the Campaign Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

Voting Based on a Coalition Democrats Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews However, limited popular contribution Moderate support among most hispanics Low voter turnout Catholics and unions divided Republicans Strong loyalties among business people and professionals Moderate support among farmers and conservatives Farmers can switch based on economy

Types of Elections Primary Elections Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election Closed Primary Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate Open Primary Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth Blanket Primary Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions Runoff Primary Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes

2008 Democratic Primary Election California ballot

Types of Elections General Elections Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

Types of Elections Special Elections Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election Initiative Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures Referendum Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people Recall Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official Special elections are only held at the state or local levels

Congressional Elections Held every two years on even-numbered years Every two years to elect Representatives Senatorial elections may be held Mid-Term Elections aka Off-Year Elections held between presidential elections Low voter turnout Incumbents - currently holding office Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning Franking privilege Free mailings to constituents Coattail Effect Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

Franking Privilege

Congressional Elections Congressional Apportionment and Districts Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911) Each state with at least one representative Currently, one representative per 709,760 Reapportionment every 10 years based on census Redistricting States determine geography of legislative districts Districts must be relatively equal Consequences Malapportionment - districts of unequal size Gerrymandering Drawing districts to favor a political party or group

Florida’s House Districts

Gerrymandering

Congressional Elections Primary Elections Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot Primary election determines party nominee

Presidential Elections Held every four years Phases of Presidential Candidacy: Exploration Announcement Primaries and Caucuses Nominating Conventions General Election Campaign Electoral College

Presidential Election Exploration Does a candidate have enough political and financial support? Sets up an exploratory committee to find out Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

Presidential Election Announcement Candidate decides to run for office Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

Presidential Election Primaries and Caucuses Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner Most commonly used method Caucuses Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee Very few states use caucuses Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

Presidential Election Nominating Conventions Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

Republican Convention Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries In 2008, the Republican nominee required 1,191 out of 2,380 2012 in Tampa, FL

Democratic Convention Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates State primary results determine candidate pledges “Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee In 2008, the Democratic nominee required 2,210 out of 4,419 2012 in Charlotte, NC

Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning Position Issues Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views Examples: Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual Valence Issues Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues Low unemployment Low crime

Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning Television Paid advertisement - spots News broadcasts - visuals Debates Televised or town hall Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns Could lead to showcase flaws Direct Mail/Internet Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics Useful to earn campaign funds Nixon - Kennedy Debate 1960

1988 Presidential Campaign Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D) Read My Lips Tank Ad Willie Horton Ad

Campaign Finance Congressional and Presidential “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D) Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules Campaign Finance Reform Effect of Campaign Finance

Sources of Campaign Money Private individuals are primary sources Federal government matches individual contributions to presidential candidates Congressional candidates receive no federal funds Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source Hard money Financial contribution directly given to candidate Soft money Financial contribution given to political party as a whole

Campaign Finance Reform Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments Required disclosure of donors Limits on individual contributions Established Federal Election Commission (FEC) Buckley v. Valeo (1976) Constitutional: Disclosure of contributions Unconstitutional: Limits on campaign expenditures

Campaign Finance Reform Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-Feingold Act Banned soft money to national parties Restricted PAC campaign ads 527 organization Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for candidate or political party May address issue or character of a candidate Publicly disclose finances and donors Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech

Campaign Finance Rules Over $100 contribution must disclose name, address, occupation No cash contribution over $100 No foreign contributions No limit on candidate contribution unless accept federal funding Individual limited to $2,000 contribution Individual political gifts limited to $95,000 every two years PACs Must register 6 months in advance At least 50 contributors Give to at least 5 candidates Not exceed $5,000 per candidate per election Not exceed $15,000 to national political party

Presidential Election General Election Electoral College Majority of electoral votes - 270 State popular vote win grants electoral votes to candidate Campaign in Electoral-rich states Top 11 states would give a candidate 271 electoral votes Swing States Florida in 2000 Election Ohio in 2004 Election

2000 Election - Gore/Bush

2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

2008 Election - Obama/McCain

Electoral Map (2012)

Results of Elections Maintaining Election Deviating Election Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties Deviating Election Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters maintain traditional loyalties Usually temporary due to current issues or events Critical/Realigning Election Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events Dealigning Election Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties Split-ticket voting

Realigning/Critical Election 1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House Great Depression hits in 1929 1932 Election Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress