Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010

DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION Transportation is the collision of demography with geography

DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION

DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY TRANSPORTATION Leavened by technology and the economy

A Quick Look at:  Demography is Destiny  Licensing and Vehicle Ownership  Travel Behavior and Activity  Truck Freight  Implications for Safety

Demography  The Pre-labor Force Age Group  Labor Force Age Group  Post Labor Force Age Group OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More  Watch Out! Here They Come!  There will be no Deluge of:  Young Population  New Cars  New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers)  Vmt  But – Maybe of:  Immigrant Drivers and  Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive  In Many Ways More Operable

Not Much Growth to Drive VMT

Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be Safety Challenge

Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population  Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru  About 400, year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.

End of the Worker Boom  : 18.5 Million  : 13.3 Million  : NEGATIVE  Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

Where will the workers come from? It could matter greatly.

A New Role For Older Workers Alan E. Pisarski

A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers over 65 by 2030 OVER POPULATION (millions) (+24%) 54.8*72.1* WORKERS (millions) (+62%) 8.2^10.8^ SHARE AT WORK 11.2%12.1%14.5%15%^ *Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

The Tools of Travel Licenses  Saturation in all ages  Women’s gains  Immigrants Vehicles  Stability  Aging fleet  Workers = Drivers IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?

Women will close the licensing gap Men will live longer

Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend Alan E. Pisarski Households in thousands

Why Vehicle Ownership Matters – Work Travel Alan E. Pisarski

Household Workers and Vehicles  In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles  In two worker hh 87% have two or more  In three + worker hh 74% have three or more

Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

Travel  Fewer Trips  Trip lengths stable  Travel times stable  VMT slow growth  But, long distance travel boomlet? Is it the Economy or the Trend?

The Role of the Work Trip has Diminished with Time

Trip-making down recently preliminary NHTSA

Mode Shares to Work are Stable WORKERS 100% DRIVE ALONE 73%76% CARPOOL 13%11% TRANSIT 5% TAXI 0% BICYCLE 0% WALKED 4%3% OTHER 1% WORKED AT HOME 3% 4%

As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme RATIO OF WOMEN/MEN effect Drove alone 97%102%NEG Carpooled 103%91%NEG/? Bus or trolley bus 166%130%NEG Subway or elevated 121%111%NEG Railroad 77%83%NEG Bicycle 30%40%NEG/? Walked 106%97%NEG/? Worked at home 130%109%NEG

Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose (2009 NHTSA –preliminary)

Average Trip Length by Purpose (2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)

Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles

Where People Spend their Time travel day trip durationMean To/From Work23.9 Work-Related Business28.72 Shopping14.38 Fam/Personal Business14.8 School/Church17.81 Medical/Dentral21.87 Vacation46 Visit Friends/Relatives24.26 Other Social/Recreational17.22 All18.83

Immigrant Work Mode Trend A NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?

Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare Source: American Travel Survey 1995

THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL  Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)  Less focus on new vehicles  Fuels impacts on costs  Fewer workers = less travel spending?  But, a boom in tourism? IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?

Major Transportation-Related Trends Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income Level Doesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes Future

How do we spend our transportation money?  Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles  Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi  Un-reimbursed Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

Transportation Spending is All about Workers Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

We are Spending Less on Transportation This Decade

Density and Distribution  Pace of change has slowed  Suburban growth pattern continues  Large metro growth is the key but … Is it the Economy or the Trend?

Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948) In met areas over a million pop suburban share: – was 51.3% in 2000 – now at 52.5% in 2008; – gained 66% of the growth to 2008 Census Domestic Mobility Study

National Commuting Flows – More Circumferential Travel

Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type

Before 8 it’s a Guy Thing! Many in Long Distance Carpools - More Early Driving

The Focus will be on Big Metros  Metros over a million  areas  areas  areas  areas  Probably 60 areas by 2020  60% of population  12 areas with more than 5 meg.  1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.  Growth is in exurb areas

Freight  Increasing tons, vehicles and value  Increasing truck shares  Prospect of larger vehicles  More hazardous materials  Non-driver fatalities

Truck Freight’s Role is Massive DOMESTIC FREIGHT TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) ALL 19,26812,36333,66729,590 TRUCK 12,6919,26622,23021,654 % TRUCK 66%75%66%73% Freight facts and figures, 2008

Share of VMT by Road System INTERSTATE SYSTEM BALANCE OF NHS OTHER HIGHWAYS ALL VEHICLES 35%30%35% ALL TRUCKS 49%26%25% LONG DISTANCE TRUCKS 75%20%6% Freight Story 2008

The Hazardous Materials Role as well TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) TON MILES (billions) ALL2,1911, TRUCK % TRUCK53%64%34% Freight Facts and Figures 2008

Truck Related Fatalities

We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns  A replacement labor force of ? size & skills  A rapidly increasing dependent older pop  A pop heavily defined by immigration policy  Changes in energy & environment costs  Other intervening new technologies  All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.

Major Safety Implications POSITIVE  Fewer young drivers  Stable vehicle & license growth  Younger working age group  Slower VMT growth – driven by pop & income NEGATIVE  More post-work age workers  Slow fleet turn-over  Immigrant conflicts  Higher percentage of travel by older pop  More trucks, hazmat

In Summary  To me the central demographic questions for traffic safety of our generation are:  Will the post work-years group be forced to stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?  To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?  Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?

Thank You! Alan E. Pisarski with Special Thanks to Forrest Council and Hugh McGee Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc

Questions?