WGNE MJO Task Force: Current status and next steps Matthew Wheeler (co-chair) CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology Eric Maloney (co-chair) Colorado State University

Renewed in early 2013 for a term of 3 years Sponsor: Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Follow on from the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX/YOTC MJOTF and US CLIVAR MJO Working Group Website: MJO Task Force : Background Members Matthew WheelerCentre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (co-chair) Eric MaloneyColorado State University (co-chair) Charlotte DeMottCMMAP/Colorado State University Jon GottschalckNational Centers for Environmental Prediction Daehyun KimUniversity of Washington June-Yi LeePusan National University Tomoki MiyakawaAORI/ University of Tokyo Richard NealeNational Center for Atmospheric Research Suryachandra RaoIndian Institute Tropical Meteorology Camille RisiIPSL/Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Ken SperberPCDMI/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jérôme VialardIPSL/LOCEAN Duane WaliserJet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech Steve WoolnoughUniversity of Reading Prince XavierUK Met Office, Singapore Important others and former members X. Jiang, N. Klingaman, J. Petch, F. Vitart, J. Benedict, H. Hendon, D. Raymond, Xiouhua Fu, Chidong Zhang, Augustin Vintzileos, Masaki Satoh, Hai Lin, Mitch Moncrieff, Min-Seop Ahn, Hae-Jeong Kim

Overall Goal: Facilitate improvements in the representation of the MJO in weather and climate models in order to increase the predictive skill of the MJO and related weather and climate phenomena. Currently working on 6 Subprojects  Process-oriented diagnostics/metrics for MJO simulation (D. Kim, P. Xavier, E. Maloney, T. Miyakawa, C. Risi)  Boreal summer monsoon ISV monitoring and forecast metrics (J.-Y. Lee, M. Wheeler; H.-J. Kim, J. Gottschalck)  Assessment of CMIP5 model capability to simulate realistic intraseasonal variability (K. Sperber, D. Kim, M.-S. Ahn)  MJO TF + GASS Multi-Model Diabatic Processes Experiment (D. Waliser, X. Jiang, J. Petch, P. Xavier, S. Woolnough, N. Klingaman)  MJO air-sea interaction (C. DeMott, N. Klingaman, S. Woolnough, J. Vialard)  The MJO and the Maritime Continent (S. Woolnough, D. Waliser, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler) Currently working on 6 Subprojects  Process-oriented diagnostics/metrics for MJO simulation (D. Kim, P. Xavier, E. Maloney, T. Miyakawa, C. Risi)  Boreal summer monsoon ISV monitoring and forecast metrics (J.-Y. Lee, M. Wheeler; H.-J. Kim, J. Gottschalck)  Assessment of CMIP5 model capability to simulate realistic intraseasonal variability (K. Sperber, D. Kim, M.-S. Ahn)  MJO TF + GASS Multi-Model Diabatic Processes Experiment (D. Waliser, X. Jiang, J. Petch, P. Xavier, S. Woolnough, N. Klingaman)  MJO air-sea interaction (C. DeMott, N. Klingaman, S. Woolnough, J. Vialard)  The MJO and the Maritime Continent (S. Woolnough, D. Waliser, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler)

Zhu et al MJO TF Subproject: Process-Oriented Diagnostics/Metrics Exploring Diagnostics/Metrics that provide more insight into why a model may have a good versus poor MJO. Facilitate improvements in convective and other physical parameterizations relevant to the MJO. Hannah and Maloney 2011; Benedict et al Thayer-Calder and Randall 2009; Kim et al 2009

Applying a RHCP (Relative Humidity Composite based on Precipitation) diagnostic to a large set of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models A metric is derived from the RCP diagnostic by using the lower-tropospheric ( hPa) mean RH for the upper 10% of rain events minus that for the lower 20% of rain events. This scatter plot shows the good relationship between this metric and model’s MJO strength. ERA-I RH Composite Kim et al. (2014) Ratio of east to west power of rainfall in the MJO band

MJO TF Subproject: Assessment of CMIP5 Models Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 model intraseasonal variability using the diagnostics package of the U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Group. Lag correlation of equatorial precipitation onto Indian Ocean reference point CMIP5 Analysis Website: Courtesy of Min-Seop Ahn

Operational center data is being collected by NOAA CPC at Verification paper coming soon! Previous MJO TF Subproject: MJO Forecast Metric We used the Wheeler-Hendon (WH04) Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index to monitor the MJO and monitor/assess numerical model forecasts of the RMMs CEOF1 CEOF2 This plot is from the CPC web-site display of dynamical model MJO index forecasts, one of the successes of the MJO Working Group (Gottschalck et al. 2010).

Real-time MJO forecast skill – All seasons The ensemble mean is used where available. All models provide total fields, but some also provide anomalies with respect to their hindcast climatology. Gottschalck, CPC Bivariate Skill

Operational center data is being sent to and collected by the APCC in Busan, Korea, with the results will be displayed on their web pages at (Hae-Jeong Kim) MJO TF Subproject: Boreal Summer ISV Forecast Metric Following our success with the Wheeler-Hendon (WH04) Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, we have sought to develop new indices for the boreal summer ISO (BSISO; Lee et al. 2013). BSISO1 BSISO2 Lee et al. (2013)

Taiwan has been added to this list

MJO TF Subproject: MJO Air-Sea Interaction  Develop, coordinate, and promote analyses of MJO air-sea interaction, including development of diagnostics that relate MJO simulation capability to fidelity in simulating key air-sea interaction processes.  Leads: Charlotte DeMott, Nick Klingaman, and Steve Woolnough.  Review article  Global coupled model experiments  Entrainment of new observations, including DYNAMO and satellite  Process modeling using one-dimensional ocean models  Develop, coordinate, and promote analyses of MJO air-sea interaction, including development of diagnostics that relate MJO simulation capability to fidelity in simulating key air-sea interaction processes.  Leads: Charlotte DeMott, Nick Klingaman, and Steve Woolnough.  Review article  Global coupled model experiments  Entrainment of new observations, including DYNAMO and satellite  Process modeling using one-dimensional ocean models

Characterize observed and modelled temperature, moisture, and cloud structures within the multi-scale convective systems during the MJO life cycle and determine the roles of various heating, moistening and momentum mixing processes. Evaluate the ability of current models to hindcast MJO events, and characterize the evolution of the “error” growth in the profiles of moistening, diabatic heating, etc. Elucidate key model deficiencies in depicting the MJO physical process evolution, and provide guidance to model development/improvement efforts. Based on above analyses, develop more targeted physics/detailed process model studies as well as formulate plans for needed observations (in-situ, airborne, satellite). Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project MJO TFGASS MJO Phenomena/Modeling Expertise + Model Diagnostic/Development Expertise

1. climate simulation – multi-year simulations coupled or atmosphere only 2. short range hindcasts – daily 48hr lead during ~20 days of the MJO 3. medium range hindcasts – daily 20-day lead time Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project GASS and MJO Task Force/YOTC Time step / 2 –Day Physics Errors Daily / Weekly Forecast Errors Long-Term Climate Simulation Errors Project leads: 1) Jiang/Waliser, 2) Xavier/Petch, 3) Klingaman/Woolnough

Over 40 modelling groupssigned up. Initial results presented anddiscussed at Singapore jointMJOTF-GASS meeting, June and IWM-V meetingin Macau in October 2013 Initial 3 papers to besubmitted in ~Aprl ’ 14. DYNAMO November 2011 case has been accepted as anextension of the project Identify critical / poorly-constrained processes forsubsequent detailed GASSprocess modelling studies. Dovetails with MJO TFDiagnostics/Metrics Work. Data is being made availablefrom NASA JPL – by late March 2014 More, Full List Available on Project Website Status and Plans One of the most comprehensive multi- model archives for examining physical processes available. e.g. For climate simulations: full vertical profiles of all physical tendencies and other process terms every 6 hours, globally, for 20 years from 28 models. Extendible to a wide variety of process and phenomenological studies. Looking for WGNE and other groups to utilize and advertise availability and opportunities.

Extension of Coordinated Hindcast Case to CINDY/DYNAMO/AMIE Period

November 2011 Event Will Be a Focus (10-Day Hindcasts) November CINDY/DYNAMO/AMIE MJO event is the most intensive observing period during the project. 10-day hindcasts will be conducted from early November/late October with high temporal resolution output of physical tendencies

Other Activities  Co-organizer WWRP International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) in Macau in October  Possible joint efforts with S2S were discussed jointly with the AAMP and members of S2S: Maritime Continent interactions Physical processes of boreal summer ISO Ocean-atmosphere interaction MJO and mid-latitude weather forecast skill Boreal summer ISO forecasts in S/SE Asia Applications Land-surface interactions, others….  Co-organizer WWRP International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) in Macau in October  Possible joint efforts with S2S were discussed jointly with the AAMP and members of S2S: Maritime Continent interactions Physical processes of boreal summer ISO Ocean-atmosphere interaction MJO and mid-latitude weather forecast skill Boreal summer ISO forecasts in S/SE Asia Applications Land-surface interactions, others….

Maritime Continent Questions/Objectives Contained within draft whitepaper as a candidate joint focus among S2S, MJOTF, and AAMP.  What is the current skill of operation systems at predicting the passage of active phases of the MJO into and across the MC, including aspects such as reliability?  What processes determine whether individual MJOs propagate through the Maritime Continent; e.g. strength of dry anomaly (e.g. Kim et al. 2013), air- sea interactions, both in reality and in models?  How is the simulated propagation of the MJO through the Maritime Continent related to biases in models?  How does the partitioning of variability from diurnal to seasonal, including equatorial wave characteristics, influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How does the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the context of the MC influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How does topography versus land-sea contrast play a role in the MJO and MC interaction?  How does land-atmosphere interactions (temperature, soil moisture, diurnal cycle) influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How is forecast skill associated with the MJO over the MC influenced by the above science elements? Contained within draft whitepaper as a candidate joint focus among S2S, MJOTF, and AAMP.  What is the current skill of operation systems at predicting the passage of active phases of the MJO into and across the MC, including aspects such as reliability?  What processes determine whether individual MJOs propagate through the Maritime Continent; e.g. strength of dry anomaly (e.g. Kim et al. 2013), air- sea interactions, both in reality and in models?  How is the simulated propagation of the MJO through the Maritime Continent related to biases in models?  How does the partitioning of variability from diurnal to seasonal, including equatorial wave characteristics, influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How does the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the context of the MC influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How does topography versus land-sea contrast play a role in the MJO and MC interaction?  How does land-atmosphere interactions (temperature, soil moisture, diurnal cycle) influence the MJO and MC interaction?  How is forecast skill associated with the MJO over the MC influenced by the above science elements?

MJO Correlation skill as a function of initial phase Is there a MJO Maritime Continent Prediction Barrier? Slight tendency for reduced prediction skill around MJO phases 4 and 5, which is when MJO convection is over the Maritime Continent, but this is not universal among models. Gottschalck, CPC

Peatman et al. (2013) TRMM 3B42HQ rainfall, Nov-Apr When looking at multiple phase of the MJO, the pattern is shown to be more complicated, with a 'vanguard' of precipitation over the islands which jumps ahead of the main body of oceanic convection. This does not happen for the MJO over the Indian Ocean.

Next steps  More telecons!  Continue writing papers (Air-sea review; MJO in CMIP5; MJO real-time forecasting verification; 3 papers on the MJO vertical structure and diabatic heating project……..)  More thinking on S2S collaboration on the Maritime Continent.  Face-to-face meeting in August in Montreal before the WWOSC.  I intend to step down as co-chair at the time of our Montreal meeting.  It's also time to rotate out some of our members to provide space for some of our more engaged contributors.  More telecons!  Continue writing papers (Air-sea review; MJO in CMIP5; MJO real-time forecasting verification; 3 papers on the MJO vertical structure and diabatic heating project……..)  More thinking on S2S collaboration on the Maritime Continent.  Face-to-face meeting in August in Montreal before the WWOSC.  I intend to step down as co-chair at the time of our Montreal meeting.  It's also time to rotate out some of our members to provide space for some of our more engaged contributors. Thanks

Renewed in early 2013 for a term of 3 years Sponsor: Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Follow on from the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX/YOTC MJOTF and US CLIVAR MJO Working Group Website: MJO Task Force : Background Members Matthew WheelerCentre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (co-chair) Eric MaloneyColorado State University (co-chair) Charlotte DeMottCMMAP/Colorado State University Jon GottschalckNational Centers for Environmental Prediction Daehyun KimUniversity of Washington June-Yi LeePusan National University Tomoki MiyakawaAORI/ University of Tokyo Richard NealeNational Center for Atmospheric Research Suryachandra RaoIndian Institute Tropical Meteorology Camille RisiIPSL/Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Ken SperberPCDMI/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jérôme VialardIPSL/LOCEAN Duane WaliserJet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech Steve WoolnoughUniversity of Reading Prince XavierUK Met Office, Singapore Important others and former members X. Jiang, N. Klingaman, J. Petch, F. Vitart, J. Benedict, H. Hendon, D. Raymond, Xiouhua Fu, Chidong Zhang, Augustin Vintzileos, Masaki Satoh, Hai Lin, Mitch Moncrieff, Min-Seop Ahn, Hae-Jeong Kim

Thanks

MJO Task Force Term of Reference (Subset) Maintain strong scientific links and collaboration with WCRP activities including CLIVAR and GASS, WWRP/THORPEX, and WCRP-WWRP cross-cutting activities including the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) and YOTC. Address WCRP Grand Challenges by improving intraseasonal and seasonal predictability and prediction that improves the skill of future regional climate information, and by aiding the development of improved climate models that enable confident regional and global projections of mean precipitation and its variability…. Maintain strong scientific links and collaboration with WCRP activities including CLIVAR and GASS, WWRP/THORPEX, and WCRP-WWRP cross-cutting activities including the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) and YOTC. Address WCRP Grand Challenges by improving intraseasonal and seasonal predictability and prediction that improves the skill of future regional climate information, and by aiding the development of improved climate models that enable confident regional and global projections of mean precipitation and its variability….

Idealization of the Concept Model Performance metric Process-oriented metric Other diagnostic frameworks are obviously possible Observational “truth”

Goal: Improve our understanding and forecasting representations of multi-scale organization of tropical convection, with emphasis on the seamless intersection of weather and climate. Novel Approach: Develop and apply a paradigm for a field campaign approach, based on advanced, high- resolution global analyses and contemporary satellite data sets, to the study of multi/global-scale interactions and organization of tropical convection. IOP May’08-Apr’10. Foundation: Science and Implementation Plans completed in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Programmatics : WCRP & WWRP/THORPEX Endorsements for Joint Research Activity YOTC Project Office Established in 2009 with support from US THORPEX. Key Data Set Development : ECMWF High-Res (~15-20km) Analyses with physical tendencies. Multi-Sensor A-Train CloudSat-collocated cloud/convection satellite data set. NCEP and NASA analyses and NASA GIOVANNI Satellite Data Tools. Key Research & Modeling Activities Initiated/Supported: MJO Task Force: 1) MJO Model Simulation Process Diagnostics 2) Forecast Metric & Forecasts for Boreal Summer Monsoon ISV 3) Simple MJO Metrics for CMIP Characterization & Climate Metrics Panel 4) MJO TF + GEWEX Multi-Model MJO Physical Processes Experiment YOTC Modeling: I) CMIP Transpose- AMIP, II) UK CASCADE very high-res limited-area convective parameterization exp, III) DOE CAPT Transpose-AMIP NCAR parameterization sensitivity exps, IV) item 4) above, including additional DYNAMO/CINDY Case, 5) ISVHE Publications: Overview Articles : Moncrieff et al. (2012a; BAMS), Waliser et al. (2012; BAMS) Over 70 peer-reviewed science articles referring to YOTC. Meetings: 1 st YOTC Science Symposium - Beijing, 2011; Moncrieff et al. (2012b; BAMS) MJO Task Force Workshop – Busan 2010; Hendon et al. (2011; BAMS) 9 AGU Sessions & 1 AMS Session; YOTC at WWRP/THORPEX OSC Aug 2014 YOTC Summary Mar’14 Co-Chairs: M. Moncrieff & D. Waliser

YOTC: Summary of Progress & Timeline A Number of YOTC–supported MJO Task Force and Related Accomplishments Not Shown MJO Metric for CMIP & Climate Metrics Panel (Sperber and Kim, 2012) Develop Forecast Metric for Boreal Summer Subseasonal Variability (Lee et al. 2012) Operational Implementation of MJO & ISO Forecast Metrics (Gottschalck et al. 2010; Lee et al. 2013) w/ WGNE MJO Workshop on Modeling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability, Busan, 2011, (Hendon et al. 2011, BAMS) Significant ongoing work on process-oriented MJO/Atmos Physics Metrics (2-3 papers in various stages) Co-support/develop first robust multi-model hindcast experiment for subseasonal variability; ISVHE.