© Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved. The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full. SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings Date: 21 st July 2011

Methodology

3 © Synovate 2011 Poll Methodology Dates of polling June 30th – July 8th, 2011 Sample Size 2000 respondents Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Perceived problems facing Kenya today

5 © Synovate 2011 Base: n=2,000 (All respondents) “In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (by Total)

6 © Synovate 2011 Prices of key commodities CommodityApril 2011July 2011 Maize flour (1 kg)Kshs – 45.00Kshs – Dry Maize (90 Kg bag)Ksh 2, – 2,600.00Ksh 4, – 4,800 Sugar (1 kg)Ksh – 98.00Ksh – Litre Cooking OilKsh – Ksh – 245 Fuel (1 litre petrol)Ksh Ksh Fuel (1 litre diesel)Ksh 94.53Ksh Kerosene (1 litre)Ksh 84.53Ksh MilkKsh 28.00Ksh – Bread (500mg)Ksh Ksh – $Ksh 83.55Ksh Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate

7 © Synovate 2011 Base: n=2,000 (All respondents) “Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed the same...” (by total)

8 © Synovate %81%51%53%56%53% Base: n=2000 (All respondents) % indicating that they are very committed/somewhat committed “How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?” (By total)

9 © Synovate 2011 “How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?” (By total) 86%81%51%53%56%53% Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

Performance Ratings

11 © Synovate 2011 “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last three months?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

12 © Synovate 2011 Performance Rating of the Grand Coalition Government: Time Series Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

Constitutional Implementation

14 © Synovate 2011 Key deadlines for the Constitution implementation:  Publishing crucial bills:  Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act, 2011  Crucial bills yet to be passed: Deadline is August 27 th 2011  Elections Bill  Political Parties Bill  Devolved Government Bill  Bill on Citizenship  Bill on Ethics and Corruption  Budget and Finance Bill Article 261 (1) “Parliament shall enact any legislation required by this Constitution to be enacted to govern a particular matter within the period specified in the Fifth Schedule, commencing on the effective date” Article 261 (5) “If Parliament fails to enact any particular legislation within the specified time, any person may petition the High Court on the matter”

15 © Synovate 2011 “What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the new Constitution?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents) Top 5 perceived difficulties:

Presidential Candidate and Political Party Choice

17 © Synovate 2011 “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

18 © Synovate 2011 “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” -Time Series

19 © Synovate 2011 “If ODM which group within ODM, do you support?” by Total Base: n=650 (Those saying “ODM”)

20 © Synovate 2011 Over 13 candidates have declared interest in the Presidency:  Professor James Ole Kiyiapi  Professor Chirau Ali Makwere  Isaac Jafar  Paul Muite  Mutava Musyimi  Eugene Wamalwa  Moses Wetangula  Bifwoli Wakoli  Martha Karua  Uhuru Kenyatta  Raila Odinga  Kalonzo Musyoka  William Ruto  Charity Ngilu  Moses Mudavadi Others:  Peter Kenneth  Mike Sonko

21 © Synovate 2011 Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner  “A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives a)more than half (over 50%) of all votes cast in the election and b)“at least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the Counties “(47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties) Article 137(1d) : The nomination process  “A person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each of a majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before being endorsed by the electoral commission)” Article 148 (1 and 3): Declaring a running mate  “Each candidate in a presidential election shall nominate a person who is qualified for nomination for election as President, as a candidate for Deputy President”  “The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall declare the candidate nominated by the person who is elected as the President to be elected as the Deputy President” Other factors at play:  Cabinet secretaries will not be elected office holders [will not come from among MPs, senators, governors etc e.g. Article 99 (2)]  The Electoral Commission aims to register 19, 000,000 voters in the next General election (currently 12.4 million voters registered, IIEC)  Voters also expected to elect; on the same day as President; a.Governor b.Senator c.Member of Parliament d.County representative e.County Women’s representative f.And probably a mayor in urban areas e.g. Nairobi  Voter turn out

22 © Synovate 2011 “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

23 © Synovate 2011 Presidential Candidate Choice Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

24 © Synovate Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate Leadership Aspect% One who has good leadership skills36% A person of integrity18% An individual who is a reformist16% One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare14% One who is development conscious7% Someone who is young5%

25 © Synovate Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate Leadership AspectContext One who has good leadership skills Visionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous, impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity among Kenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ] A person of integrity Not corrupt, transparent and trustworthy, knows what is good An individual who is a reformist Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, will initiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitution diverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline the political landscape One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare Helpful to people, cares about the people’s welfare, cost of living, understands people’s problems, can defends citizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent their interests One who is development conscious Has good development ideas, good development record, action oriented Someone who is “young”“Young “

2007 – 2008 Post Election Violence and ICC Trials

27 © Synovate 2011 “Which Kenyans have been named for possible trial by the ICC at the Hague?” Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

28 © Synovate 2011 Opinion on ICC trials Base: n=2000 (All respondents) Q. “Please choose one statement that is closest to your view” by Total

29 © Synovate 2011 “Are you happy or unhappy that the Hague/the ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence(PEV)?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

30 © Synovate 2011 Q. How would your community feel if the Hague/ICC punished each of the following suspects of PEV? % indicating that they are happy Those happy with the pursuit of ICC suspects (by province) Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

31 © Synovate 2011 “(If Happy)Please explain?” Base: n=1208(Those saying happy)

32 © Synovate 2011 (If Unhappy)Please explain?” Base: n=638(Those saying unhappy)

33 © Synovate 2011 “In your opinion, should ICC hearings on confirmation of charges be held in….?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents) Preference on ICC hearings on confirmation of charges:

34 © Synovate 2011 The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30 th June - 8 th July, 2011 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. POLL METHODOLOGY

35 © Synovate 2011 These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing Poll Methodology (Cont..)

36 © Synovate 2011 For further enquiries contact Maggie Ireri MD Synovate Kenya