Chigomezyo M. Ngwira 1,2 and Antti A. Pulkkinen 2 New Real-Time GIC Forecasting Capabilities: Extended Solar Shield 1. Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064, USA. 2. NASA GSFC, Space Weather Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. Idaho National Laboratory GMD Workshop, 6-8 April 2015, Idaho Falls, ID

Outline Background: Space Weather GIC studies at NASA GSFC Extreme space weather/NASA technology demonstration Solar Shield forecasting system: Overview Extended Solar Shield project Improved space physics modeling Capability New real-time computations/outputs Summary

Space weather chain 3

CCMC models cover the entire space weather domain PFSS WSA PF+CS/WSA-IH MAS/CORHEL MAS/WSA/ENLIL Exospheric Solar Wind Heliospheric Tomography ENLIL BATSRUS Open GGCM Fok RC/RB Weimer2K SAMI2 CTIP SWMF SC/IH/BATSRUS+RCM/GITM CMIT-LFM UPOS RB USU-GAIM AbbyNormal ANMHD EMMREM GUMICS LFM-MIX WINDMI TIE-GCM

GIC studies at CUA/NASA-GSFC Many studies on GIC done by CUA/NASA-GSFC: i.Solar Shield forecasting system [Pulkkinen et al., 2009, Nat Hazards] ii.100-year scenarios [Pulkkinen et al., 2012, SW] iii.Extended study of extreme geoelectric fields [Ngwira et al., 2013, SW] iv.Modeling extreme event scenarios [Ngwira et al., 2013b, 2014] NASA technology demonstration project. This talk will focus on the most recent changes pertaining to the Solar Shield forecasting systems.

Extreme space weather scenario Ngwira et al., (2013, SW)

Line magnetometer Reference magnetometer Power transformer NASA demonstration project: Field set-up Initial funding for this project was provided by NASA’s Center Innovation Fund and Goddard’s Internal Research and Development (IRAD) program. Worked with Dominion Virginia Power initially, and now with Southern Company, AEP, PJM and Dominion.

Laboratory work: Station installation

“Old” Solar Shield overview The Solar Shield system is an experimental space weather forecast tool initially designed for the North American power grid; initial work was funded by NASA’s Applied Sciences Program. Solar Shield is an example of how cutting-edge models and observations can be used to address space weather research needs. NASA/GSFC/Space Weather Lab and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) were initial key players. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) is the backbone magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling platform for the GIC forecasts. 9

Level 1 forecasts 10 April 3, 2008 NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used. Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory. Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model to provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

11 April 3, 2008 NASA ACE observations at L1 used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model. Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC. Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool 12 % Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1 % % The format of the data is as follows: % lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2... % yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high... % % Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2 % % The format of the data is as follows: % lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2... %

“Extended” Solar Shield overview Solar Shield builds on world-leading space weather activities at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). An extension of the existing Solar Shield system to forecast the mid- and low-latitude GIC phenomenon is now on-going. This work is funded by DHS, Science and Technology Directorate. The expansion is enabled by the latest developments in the field of space physics. A new class of coupled kinetic inner magnetospheric and global MHD models hosted at CCMC now running in real-time. 13

Near-space current systems To accurately model ground magnetic perturbations, you need to capture the physics of near-space electric current systems.

MHD modeling platform/process Modeling platform of choice is the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF): University of Michigan physics-based model. Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) Rice Convection Model (RCM) Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM)

Modeling GIC Electric field major quantity that determines the level of GIC flowing in power systems. All E-fields for continental USA are now tailored using U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ground models. Viljanen and Pirjola, [1989]

New real-time computations CCMC now running new version of SWMF in real- time. Three versions running in parallel providing information about the spatiotemporal behavior of the global ionosphere and magnetosphere. New capability for Biot-Savart integration over ionosphere and magnetosphere. All versions capable to predict ground magnetic perturbations anywhere on the globe. Outputs are piped to the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (ISWA) at CCMC. 17

Example: Modeled magnetic perturbations

Example: Modeled geoelectric fields

Summary GICs are a major concern for the power transmission industry. The Solar Shield system leverages unique space weather modeling and NASA data streams at GSFC to address a key US space weather need. Tailored two-level experimental GIC forecasts generated for selected nodes of the North American high-voltage power transmission system. Solar Shield extended capabilities, funded by DHS S&T, allow for forecast of the GIC phenomenon at the mid- and low-latitudes. These new capabilities are enabled by significant advances made in the modeling of solar wind- magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions. 20