(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere Climate.

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Presentation transcript:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere Climate Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 3 - Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Substantial Growth in Information on Observed Climate 1.Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 1 Chapter 2. Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 3 Chapters (Recall growth in peer- reviewed literature)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Improvements 1.Recovery of old observations 2.Improved understanding of sources of error (e.g., ocean temperatures) (e.g., ocean temperatures) 3.Availability and ingestion of satellite observations since 1979 (esp. for Southern Hemisphere)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Temperature Annual Cycle (surface)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Global, Annual Land-Surface Temperature Differences: Stations used (all > 4,000) Spatial averaging

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Urbanization Effects? U.S. Historical Climatology Network T anomaly relative to : Red - Full set Blue - without “urban” Green - “urban” only (pop >30,000 in 2000; 16%) Red - Blue

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies Adjustments: Evaporation from canvas/wood buckets; daytime warming of ship deck

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Combined Land-Ocean Annual Temperature Anomalies Error Bars: 5%-95% confidence range

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Temperature Trends Trends

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Temperature Trends ( ): Seasonal (+ = Significant at 5% level)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Annual Anomalies of Daily Max T, Min T and DTR (71% of land with data available for )

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Diurnal Temperature Range

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Atmospheric Temperature Changes Baseline: Satellites Weather balloons

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Atmospheric Temperature Changes Satellites Weather balloons Surface stations

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Trends ( )

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Precipitation Annual Cycle (surface)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Global Precipitation Changes (Land) (Annual total ~ 1,100 mm/yr)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Precipitation Trends (Note different scales)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Atmospheric Water Vapor (from satellite observations) Baseline:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Upper Troposphere Water Vapor (from satellite observations) Baseline:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Land Cloud Cover Changes Baseline:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) El Niño - Southern Oscillation (Correlations with SOI) Sea-level pressure Surface temperature Precipitation

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Sea-surface temperature changes

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) Extreme Temperatures - Trends Cold: lowest 10% Warm: highest 10% Significant at 5% level

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3) END Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere Climate