Future of the Bioeconomy and Biofuels: Overview, Industry, and Agriculture? Dan Otto Chad Hart John A. Miranowski Iowa State University

Ethanol Explosion Source: Renewable Fuels Association and preliminary CARD projections

Renewable Fuels Standard Source: Renewable Fuels Association and the State of the Union Address

Current Status - Ethanol November, 2006

Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plants, Current & Planned, 11-06

Use of Iowa corn – Source: Iowa Corn Growers Association

Possibilities for Increasing Corn Acreage?

Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Crude oil futures contract prices for delivery through 2011 – $60-65/bbl Energy prices likely in $60-68/bbl range – Global Insight –Real and perceived risk –Surplus production capacity –Economic growth –Growing global demand Important caveat with rapid ethanol supply expansion

Biofuel Industry Issues Corn-based ethanol facing increasing capital costs with rapid expansion Ethanol and co-product transportation challenge Structural change and industry “shake-outs” –Initially, fragmented local firms for local growth –Growing spatial, vertical, and product integration –Few large firms will likely drive the industry Local economic growth and job tradeoffs Food, feed, and fuel tradeoffs Environmental and climate impacts

Is Biomass Feedstock the Answer and When? Significant R&D challenges for biomass feedstock? –Yield, fertility, and soil? –Biomass harvesting, transport, and storage? –Enzymes, catalysts? Conversion platform and biofuel form? Production from pilot plants beginning in 2009 Select most efficient platform for commercialization in 2013 Scale-up industry with commercial impact about 2015 Impacts corn price when significant to fuel market

Outlook for Biofuel Industry Potential of corn-based ethanol industry to contribute to energy security –CARD long run equilibrium ~30B gal at $4 corn –14B gal constraint with conventional engine; FFV? Biofuel industry maturing –Large integrated businesses –Efficient local firms –More stable biofuel market Biomass feedstock important after 2015

Current Iowa Policies and Incentives Ethanol Infrastructure Cost-Share Program Alternative Fuel Vehicle Grants Ethanol and Biodiesel Tax Credits Biofuels Infrastructure Grants Alternative Fuel Loan Program E85 Fuel Exclusivity Contract Regulations State Renewable Fuels Standard Alternative Fuel Vehicle Acquisition Requirements Alternative Fuel Use Policies Alternative Fuel Tax Rates Alternative Fuel Labeling Requirements