Tackling Land Degradation: A Prerequisite for Human Security Luc GNACADJA - World Future Council 2014 Inter-Parliamentary Regional Hearing on Exemplary Forest Policies in Africa Nariobi, 1 – 3 October 2014

Outline 1.Land degradation/Desertification? Human Security? 2.The tradeoffs in land use change: Progress or Degradation? 3.How LD threatens human security and global sustainability? 4.Restoring more than we degrade: Land degradation neutrality in the Sust. Dev. Goals (SDGs)

Desertification: a global challenge in a Vicious Cycle Land Degradation? Long-term loss of land (terrestrial bio productive syst.) productivity from which the land cannot recover unaided Desertification = Land Degradation in dry lands

A Vicious Cycle Causes of Land Degrad./Desertification Deforestation Overgrazing Unsustainable Agriculture Soil Erosion (Wind & Water)

Function change or Function trade off Forest Grassland 1. Undisturbed 2. Extensive 3. Intensive Tradeoffs in land use change: Progress or degradation? From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation Source: PBL 2009

Function change or Function trade off Degraded? Forest Grassland 1. Undisturbed 2. Extensive 3. Intensive 4... Smart Policies needed to transform tradeoffs in synergies

Status & Trends in Global Land Degradation Source: SOLAW FAO In too many places, achievements in production have been associated with management practices that have degraded the land & water

Human Security? Human Security (HS) concept connotes that of Human Development Human Security (HS) concept connotes that of Human Development Here, “Security” means freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity. Here, “Security” means freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity. Human security addresses human vulnerability and lack of resilience vis-à-vis security threats and risks in areas such as economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, political. Human security addresses human vulnerability and lack of resilience vis-à-vis security threats and risks in areas such as economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, political. It’s a people-centered concept of security understood as necessary for national, regional and global security and stability. It’s a people-centered concept of security understood as necessary for national, regional and global security and stability.

How Land Degradation threatens Human Security ?

Biodiversity Loss Extreme Poverty Water stress & Increased vulnerability to Drought Food insecurity & Hunger CC : Loss of resilience & Increased emissions of GHG Environ. induced Migrations Environ. induced Migrations Instability & Crises Deforestation Economics: LD cost up to 5% GDP/Year Degradation of Livelihoods Depletion of resource base for HS Degradation of Livelihoods Depletion of resource base for HS LD =

to Fight or to Flee Land Degrad. Drought Loss of Bio- Productivity Vulnerability Poverty Food Insecurity Conflicts over Scarcer Resources Fight or Flee Land Degradation & Drought: Fight or Flee ? by 2020 an estimated 60 million people could move from the desertified areas of Sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa & Europe by 2020 an estimated 60 million people could move from the desertified areas of Sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa & Europe by 2050, 200 million people may be permanently displaced environmental migrants in the World by 2050, 200 million people may be permanently displaced environmental migrants in the World

Drylands and Conflicts - Source: “Common Wealth”, J. Sachs) Drylands: The World’s most conflict-prone region

In ‘Desertification, The Invisible Frontline’; UNCCD 2014 Desertification Vulnerability in Africa, 2008 Conflicts & Food Riots in Africa, Terrorists Attacks in 2012

Migration main trajectories Major push factors of environmentally- induced migration: Drought Desertification Water Scarcity Environment degradation - Migrations & Conflicts Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change ­ WBGU (2007)

Global Desertification Vulnerability Vulnerability to desertification: A migration push factor ? Desertification and drought global hot spots have become major global sources of environmentally- induced migrations

Drylands are not marginal lands The real value of Drylands  1/3 of the world land mass and population  44% of the World’s food production system  50% of the World’s livestock  Dry forest made 42% of the earth's tropical and subtropical open or closed forests  Home to the world’s largest diversity of mammals whose survival, literally, hangs on the arid zone forests

Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR); July Climate Change: DROUGHT may threaten much of the globe within decades % of Earth’s land area stricken by serious drought has more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s Africa is the most drought stricken and vulnerable region of the world Since 2009, 7 out of the 10 worst drought disasters in the world have been taken place in sub-Saharan Africa Yet no country in the continent has effective drought preparedness and risk management policies & institutions

Land Degradation: Africa is most vulnerable region Risk of human-induced desertification From “Land resource stresses and desertification in Africa “ Published in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H. Eswaran, 2001  Weather shocks: the occurrence of droughts affecting over 2 M people has increased from 20% (1970s) to 90% (2000s)  Social & resource-based conflict:  Horn of Africa: home to over 4 million internally displaced and 2.5 million refugees due to war and drought  Sahel region: home to over 500,000 internally displaced and 400,000 refugees  Vulnerability is compounded by land degradation: over 3% of Africa’s agricultural GDP is lost annually— equivalent to US$ 9 billion per year-as a direct result of soil and nutrient loss Over 45% of Africa was affected by desertification. 80% of the pasture & rangeland seriously eroded/degraded

Niger Republic, West Africa, 1980’s Can this man-made barren land thrive again? 20

Dynamics of land use and vegetation in Southwest of Zinder, Niger A A C C B B

Transformed landscape: Farmer-managed natural regeneration - FMNR

‘ Underground forests’: Tony’s eureka moment in Niger FMNR = Farmer-managed natural regeneration, one of the most successful and cost- effective agro-forestry schemes for regenerating desertified land by managing living tree stumps & roots “When you understand desertified land you can restore them” (Tony Rinaudo)

Impacts of Farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) in Niger  5,000,000 ha re-greened in 20 years (only labour for protection, investment in extension, no recurrent costs to governments)  200 million new trees  additional cereal production/year: 500,000 ton  2.5 million people fed  1.25 million rural households involved Challenges for scaling up and dissemination Secure Land tenure and Land use rights Public investments on infrastructures Access to market Tailored legislation, policies & institutions

Comparative Overview of Terroirs on Opposite Sides of the Niger-Nigeria Border Source: Google Earth, 2005 Niger Nigeria 25 Desertification & Drought when compounded with weak governance often fuel tribal / political / religious fights

Desertification Vulnerability in Africa Published in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H. Eswaran, 2001 Degraded Lands are underperforming Assets 450 Millions ha … More than in any other continent!

Investments in Drylands can pay off Many drylands in developing countries have been investment deserts for too long, yet sustained higher levels of investment can enhance productivity and boost incomes. For the greatest gains, investments need to be configured to the short and long-term variability of these human-ecological systems. There are opportunities to suit all sectors For the public, private large-scale commercial, community and household, and private small-scale sectors Investments areas : renewable energy, education, health, water, farmland, pasture and livestock, woodland and trees, land use, conservation and tourism, urban development, markets, innovation and risk management, etc. The potential benefits of drylands (at local, regional & global levels) have not been fully utilized because of: Myths & stigma Market failures, Lack of public goods, Weak incentives, High investment costs and Gender inequalities. The potential benefits of drylands (at local, regional & global levels) have not been fully utilized because of: Myths & stigma Market failures, Lack of public goods, Weak incentives, High investment costs and Gender inequalities. (Source: ‘Global Drylands UN System Wide Rapid Response’ UNEP-EMG, 2011

Potential Soil factor NPP Food Fiber Water Floods Climate Biodiversity 2050 Business as usual 0 Time Restoring more than we degrade: Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World ( LDNW ) by 2030 Prevention: Type1 Restoration: Type 2&3 LDNW options SDG Goal 15 & target 15.3 by 2030 “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss” Ongoing cha nge Historical change

Poverty eradication Improving livelihood through pro-poor policies on Sustainable Land & Water Management Poverty eradication Improving livelihood through pro-poor policies on Sustainable Land & Water Management Drought & Water stress Improving water availability & quality through sustainable land & water management Drought & Water stress Improving water availability & quality through sustainable land & water management Food Security Preserving the resource base for food security – Land productivity/Soil fertility improvement at the core of all long term strategies Food Security Preserving the resource base for food security – Land productivity/Soil fertility improvement at the core of all long term strategies Biodiversity Biodiversity conservation through improvement of land ecosystems’ conditions Biodiversity Biodiversity conservation through improvement of land ecosystems’ conditions Climate change Land is a win-win context for adaptation, mitigation & resilience building Climate change Land is a win-win context for adaptation, mitigation & resilience building Bio Energies Opportunities for Bio energies through biomass production Bio Energies Opportunities for Bio energies through biomass production Avoided Deforestation Sust. Land Management & Restoration of degraded Lands as an alternative to Deforestation Avoided Deforestation Sust. Land Management & Restoration of degraded Lands as an alternative to Deforestation Avoiding environ. Forced Migrations Changing the DAM paradigm “Degrade-Abandon-Migrate” Avoiding environ. Forced Migrations Changing the DAM paradigm “Degrade-Abandon-Migrate” LAND-DEGRADATION NEUTRALITY: A FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED LANDSCAPE MANAGEMENT

My hope is That this generation will initiate the restoration age Please Join Thank You Historical Fact: Mankind is a Desert-making Species