Russia and the Post-Soviet Republics January 26

Russian History Tsarist Regime Russian Revolution, 1917 End of Civil War, 1921 Lenin’s death, 1924 Stalinist period, Khrushchev's ‘secret speech’ critical of Stalinism, 1956

Collapse of the Soviet Union and Emergence of Russian Federation Gorbachev era, Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989 Yeltsin becomes President of Russia, 1991 Break-up of Soviet Union, 15 newly independent states emerged, including Russia, 1991 Yeltsin, re-elected, 1996

Post-Soviet Republics - Population 1.Russia 2.Ukraine 3.Uzbekistan 4.Kazakhstan 5.Belarus 6.Azerbaijan 7.Tajikistan 8.Kyrgyzstan 9.Turkmenistan 10.Georgia 11.Moldova 12.Lithuania 13.Armenia 14.Latvia 15.Estonia 140,041,247 45,700,395 27,606,007 15,399,437 9,648,533 8,238,672 7,349,145 5,431,747 4,884,887 4,615,807 4,320,748 3,555,179 2,967,004 2,231,503 1,299,371

Putin Era Putin becomes acting president, 1999, elected president, 2000; re-elected 2004 Dmitry Medvedev elected president, 2008; Putin becomes PM

Post-Soviet Economy radical market reform, ‘shock therapy’, 1992 Major financial crisis, govt defaults 1998 Economic growth revived, 1999 Global economic crisis hits in 2008

‘Imitation Democracies’ (Furman, 2008) Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Russia

Democratic Path (Furman, 2008) The Baltic Republics Lithuania Latvia Estonia Moldova

Wavering between the democratic and authoritarian paths (Furman, 2008) Ukraine Belarus Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan

Freedom House, “Map of Freedom” Free: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine Partly Free: Armenia, Georgia, Moldova Not Free: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Freedom House, “Map of Freedom” 2010 “ the countries of the non-Baltic former Soviet Union continued their decade-long backslide during 2009.” “Conditions in this subregion have deteriorated to the point that almost every country ranks at the very bottom on multiple indicators measured by Freedom in the World.” “The area’s average political rights score—which covers the spheres of electoral process, political pluralism, and functioning of government— has dropped sharply over the past four years and is now comparable to that of the Middle East and North Africa.” “The non-Baltic former Soviet Union lags far behind sub- Saharan Africa on the average scores for political rights and civil liberties, as well as on the majority of individual indicators, including freedom of expression, freedom of association, and the rule of law.”

Freedom House, “Map of Freedom” 2010 “The dominant regional power, Russia, suffered further deterioration despite assurances from President Dmitry Medvedev that reform is in the offing.” “Credible reports suggest that local and regional elections were suffused with irregularities.” “New restrictions were placed on religious minorities.” “A new commission was established to influence the presentation of history in schools and elsewhere, a move consistent with the Kremlin’s wider efforts to manage and manipulate information in the public sphere.” “Human rights defenders and journalists remained vulnerable to persecution and murder, and there was a distinct lack of progress in punishing those responsible for previous politically motivated killings.”

Authoritarianism in Russia In 2004, nomination by the Russian president replaced election of regional governors. Lack of media independence. Many journalists have been assassinated. Restrictions have been placed on NGOs. Limitations on party registration. Changes to electoral system to hinder election of independents and regional parties.

Chechnya In 1991 Chechen declared Chechnya’s independence from Russia Russian troops sent in, 1994; First Chechen War, Cease fire and peace treaty, 1996 Russian troops sent it, 1999; Second Chechen War,

The “Colour Revolutions” Georgia’s Rose Revolution, 2003 Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, 2004 Kyrgyzstan’s Tulip Revolution, 2005 Unsuccessful attempts in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus, ; Armenia, 2008 Attempted revolt in Uzbekistan, brutally repressed.

Ukrainian Presidential Election 2010 First Round - January 17. Incumbent President, Viktor Yushchenko, brought to power by the Orange Revolution received less than 6% of the vote. Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Russian candidate defeated by Yushchenko in 2004 is the leader after the first ballot. He will face Yulia Tymoshenko, the current prime minister in the run-off

EU Enlargement to Include former Eastern Bloc Territories 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia 2007: Romania, Bulgaria

NATO Enlargement 1999: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland 2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia 2009: Albania, Croatia Countries moving toward NATO membership: Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro Georgia, Ukraine