Chinese Economy: Introduction Junhui Qian 2014 September

Chinese Economy The most populous country (1.3 billion) The most rapidly growing economy (10% since 1978) The largest trading nation in the world (USD 3.87 trillion in volume) In terms of aggregate output, China is second only to the US. In terms of output per cap, China is still a “lower middle income country” (The World Bank).

Transition and Development Before 1978, the key words were revolution, socialism, Maoist radicalism. After 1978, the key words were gradualist reform (“crossing the river by groping for stepping stones”), opening, and development. The first stage of reform and opening achieves the transition from a socialist command economy to a market economy. The second stage, which is ongoing, would achieve sustainable development from a middle-income country into a high-income country.

Why China Grows So Fast? Rapid growth of inputs (capital, labor) Successful transition from socialism to market economy The market works Gradualist reform is superior over “shock therapy” A revival of traditional economic relationship Value on education, social trust, connection with oversea Chinese, etc.

The Geographical Setting

Provinces and Regions China has 31 province-level administrative units, including 22 provinces, 4 municipalities under national supervision, and 5 autonomous regions of ethnic minorities. There are large and small ones, old and new ones, rich and poor ones. Macro-regions: North China (“the center plain”, 中原 ) Lower, Middle, and Upper Yangtze’s Northeast (Manchuria) Northwest Far South, South East (“the maritime China”) Southwest

The Maritime China John King Fairbank suggested that “maritime China” was a distinct region and subculture within Chinese civilization. Homeland of most of the overseas Chinese who left China before Include Guangdong, Fujian, and part of Zhejiang. Four special economic zones (SEZs): Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, and Xiamen. Important links with Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The Chinese Economy Before 1949

Historical Division Dynasties (before 1911) Republic of China ( , on Taiwan) People’s Republic of China (from 1949, on mainland)

The Traditional Economy High-productivity traditional agriculture The commercialized countryside Sophisticated institutions (Money, large organizations, advanced commercial procedures, legal and customary institutions, banks) Competitive markets (competitive markets for products, land, and labor; social mobility) Small-scale household economy

Paper money of Ming Dynasty A Traditional BankA Certificate of Tax

Crisis of the traditional economy Population growth on the limited land and stagnant technology “The Chinese peasant is like a man standing on tiptoe up to his nose in water—the slightest ripple is enough to drown him.” (Tawney, 1930s) Failure of government Cycle of dynasties Too small (around 1800, one government worker per 32,000 people) Challenge from the west The opium import caused a monetary deflation.

Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China? Needham’s puzzle: Why was China's science and technology so far in advance of other civilizations historically, only to fall in modem times? Justin (Yifu) Lin points to the missing scientific revolution in China, which in turn may be due to the contents of civil service exams and the criteria of promotion. Read Lin (1995).

Rapid industrialization (8%-9% annual growth in factory production) Treaty ports (e.g., Shanghai) Manchuria There were two good intervals: (WWI) (“The Nanjing Decade”) Modern education expanded rapidly. Open to the world About 100,000 Chinese students went abroad (Japan, US, Europe) As of 1936, around 370,000 foreigners were resident in China Shanghai was the financial center of the far east.

War-time economy Increased State Intervention Before the war, there had been no significant public sector By the early 1940s, state-run firms accounted for 70% of all capital and 32% of all labor in unoccupied area. Hyperinflation (See the tables in next two slides, from 《中国中央银 行研究》 )

Summary Geographically, China is big, rugged, and diverse. The traditional economy is household-based and agricultural. The modernization of Chinese economy had been bumpy, frequently interrupted by wars and revolutions. People’s Republic of China was founded in desperate economic situation.