M AXINE M AJOR O CTOBER 29, 2013

Overview  World Perspective  Export Control  United States FY14 Budget  International Scene Israel Iran China North Korea Turkey  Issues and Ethics

International  50+ countries have surveillance drones  Many in-house R&D for armed drones  $6.6 billion 2013  $11.4 billion 2022  Israel and the U.S. are largest drone manufacturers U.S. most frequent user Israel is top seller

Export Control  Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) “an informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction, and which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their proliferation.” Founded in countries including U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan

Export Control  MTCR (continued) “restrict the proliferation of missiles, complete rocket systems, unmanned air vehicles, and related technology for those systems capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload at least 300 kilometres, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).” Includes some rocket systems including space launch vehicles

Export Control  MTCR (continued) Export control restrictions: ○ Rocket systems ○ Unmanned air vehicle systems “with capabilities exceeding a 300km/500kg range/payload threshold” ○ Production facilities ○ Major sub-systems

Export Control  MTCR (continued) Export licenses intended to build confidence that technology will not be used for WMD delivery systems. End users: ○ End user to specify exact purpose for drones ○ Assurance not to be used for WMD ○ Post-shipment inspections Membership in MTCR does not “entitle” one country to freely trade systems and technology with another.

United States  Drone Export $2-$3 billion ( ) Largest client is U.S. Govt. ○ (May be due to tight export controls) Federal restrictions regulate the sale of drones Most drone sales prohibited due to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)

United States  Unmanned Systems Cacaus “advocate for drones” Chaired by 2 congressmen (Rep. & Dem.) 8 committee members from the House Committee on Appropriations Money is given to the cacaus to influence govt. support for research $2.3 million contributions since 2011 ○ Much of this comes from drone manufacturers

U.S. FY 2014 Budget  hr-fy2014-defense.pdf hr-fy2014-defense.pdf  Procurement: $1,870,424,00021 EA–18G Growler electronic attack aircraft $506,976, MQ–1 Gray Eagle UAVs $340,391, MQ–9 Reaper UAVs  R&D $2,867,319,000Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

U.S. Research & Development  EA–18G Growler Manned tactical jammer will replace Prowler Uses “INCANS Interference Cancellation system that will allow voice communication while jamming enemy communications”  Growler eventually replaced by UAV “Secretary of the Navy is directed to study the use of un-manned systems for organic airborne electronic attack to augment the Marine Corps current airborne electronic attack and electronic exploitation mission in whole or in part.”

U.S. Exports  Most drone sales to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies  U.K.Armed Reapers (2007)  ItalyArming 6 Reaper drones (2012)  IraqOil protection  South Korea4 RQ-4 Global Hawks

U.S. Exports  United Arab Emirates Interested in $197 million Predator XP XP = “export”  Australia, Japan, Singapore Interested in Global Hawks  Turkey Outstanding request for armed Reapers Likely to be denied

Israel  First country to develop military drone technology Post 1973 Arab-Israeli war  Drones ½ military flight time  Surveillance: Palestine Syria Lebanon  Silent regarding weaponization

Israel  World’s largest drone exporter $4.6 billion exported ( ) 10% of Israel military exports % of all UAVs exported

Israel  Exports countries including: ○ Canada, Australia, Russia, Nigeria, India, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijan, Uganda, Ethiopia Sold to China until 2005 arms deal with U.S. Sold technology for Orbiter 2M and Aerostar drones to Azerbijan

Israel  Israel Aerospace Industries “we exist because of the international market.” 49 worldwide customers 80% UAVs sold to foreign customers Short-term lease agreements (Canada, Australia) Employs former soldiers  Elbit Systems Israel’s 2 nd largest drone manufacturer

Iran  RQ-170 Sentinel Dec 2011 – Downed U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel reconnaissance drone ○ Crash vs. electronic warfare ○ Kept for reverse engineering

Iran  RQ-170 Sentinel (continued) Feb Claim to have decoded video recordings Oct 2013 – Iranian RQ-170 ○ “undetectable to radars” ○ Adapts heat production to surrounding temperature

Iran  Shahed 129 ( Sept 2013) Iranian R&D Payload: 8 missiles or bombs, or Sadid missiles Range: 1,700 km (can reach Israel) Duration: 24 hours For “Defensive purposes only”  Similar to Israel’s Hermes 450 and Hermes 900

Iran  ScanEagle Another downed drone (Dec 2012) Incident denied by U.S. Reverse engineered ○ Gave Russia copy as proof (Oct 2013)

China  Internal Use: Arms sales $11 billion ○ Political ○ Profit Developed to survey disputed islands Intended to fly in “contested airspace”

China  International Market Develop & market UAVs abroad Less expensive Lower quality  Arms manufacturers target foreign buyers

China  Technology 1950’s - Reverse-engineered drones acquired from Soviet Union 1960’s - Studied American drones in Vietnam 1990’s – Purchased 100 Harpy armed drones from Israel Northwest Polytechnic University (CPU) ○ 40+ UAV variants developed ○ 90% of drone development

China  Technology (continued) Hacking U.S. ○ Linked to Chinese hacker unit “Comment Crew” ○ “gather domestic and international technology” ○ “We can only envy their technology. Right now, we’re learning from them.”

China  Exports Wing Loong/Pterodactyl (Reaper) ○ Exported in 2011 ○ 2 laser-guided missiles ○ “equal of the predator in endurance and flight range” … but cheaper ○ $1,000,000 USD

China  Wing Loong sales: UAE Uzbekistan 5-6 Africa/Asia nations  Other Exports PakistanCH-3/CH4 drones Egypt“whole package air defense system”

North Korea  Internal drone program Reconnaissance drones ○ Based off Chinese D-4 aircraft  Purchased from others Pchela-1T (1990’s) ○ Bought from Russia (1997)

North Korea  MQM-107D Streaker Purchased from Syria (2012) U.S. developed in 1970’s Can be recovered, refueled and reused ○ DPRK intends for kamikaze missions “anything that can fly at high velocity loaded with explosives on the hands of a bunch of psychotic military people is never good news.”

Turkey  Used Israeli drones in Iraq surveillance  TAI Anka (“Phoenix”) Developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries Engine produced by German company Thielert Thielert purchased by China’s Avic (Sept 2013)  Reconnaissance drone development to start (Oct 2013)

Others  Pakistan & India claim combat-capable drones Unconfirmed  Hizballah May have used drones in Lebanon (2006)

Countries with UAVs Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece India Indonesia Iran Israel Italy Japan Jordan Latvia Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Singapore Slovenia South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Sweden Taiwan Thailand Tunisia Turkey Thailand United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Vietnam

Issues & Ethics  Non-weaponized drones still provide unmanned aerial technology. Weaponized models can be developed from surveillance models.  Any customer is a potential reseller. Weapons sold to allies can be sold to enemies.  Old technology is still viable technology.  A refusal to sell is encouragement to develop.  China makes everything cheaper.

Issues & Ethics  “The U.S. has set a dangerous precedent with its use of drones as it now sees the world as a global battlefield… Are other countries also going to claim that vast authority with this technology? I guess we'll have to see.” Naureen Shah - Associate Director of the Counterterrorism and Human Rights Project (Columbia Law School)

Issues & Ethics  The U.S. is not the primary exporter, but “we’re creating an international norm”  Things the U.S. is criticized for now will be shared by others soon. China’s plan to assassinate man in Myanmar Airspace disputes

Questions?

References             uav.aspx?pageID=238&nID=54563&NewsCatID=483    economies   english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/02/06/ html     

References (continued)       plan.html  ballistic-missiles           drones.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0  Israeli-lookalike-combat-UAVs/UPI /  