CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA

Many of California’s most economically important crops— including fruit and nut trees and grapes—are perennial. Because trees and vines require several years to mature, growers cannot respond to changing climate conditions by simply planting new varieties and bringing them quickly to production. Water Supply Impacts: A group of researchers at UC Davis investigated the effect of potential climate-induced reductions in water supply to the agricultural sector. One of their findings is that the lack of water would result in reductions in irrigated crop area contributing to the loss of agricultural lands in the Central Valley. Under the particular climate change scenario investigated, the researchers also found that changes in yields (mostly negative) and changes in water availability could result in gross revenues losses of up to $3 billion by year 2050.

San Joaquin Valley walnut farmer Chris Locke has noticed a change in the weather, with less frigid fog and more sunny days. Winter chilling hours have declined as much as 30% since 1950 in large swaths of the Central Valley, according to a UC Davis study. (Robert Durell / July 20, 2009)

The likely climate future for California is warmer and wetter winters and drier and hotter summers. Increased winter precipitation, particularly in the mountains, will more likely fall as rain than snow—resulting in greater winter runoff and less flow in summer streams. This cycle would intensify water demands in the state. Of course, rainfall varies tremendously across California, and climate change impacts will likewise be variable. Credit: Christopher Daly, Oregon Climate Service, Oregon State University ( pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/CA/ca.gif) Water Resources

Redwoods depend on coastal fog moisture for growth. One study claims that N. California fog has been decreasing due to warming coastal waters.

Wildfire Risks: Scientists at UC Merced and Pardee RAND Graduate School performed a novel analysis of wildfire risk in California. They estimated that wildfire risk would increase throughout the end of the century. Average annual monetary impacts due to home loss may plausibly to be on the order of 2 billion dollars per year by mid-century and up to $14 billion per year by the end of the century.

Recent California Fires NASA/MODIS July ‘08 Summer ’07 NASA Images

This photo, taken at Mt. Meadows Reservoir near Chester, shows the devastation wrought by the Jeffrey pine beetle.

Wetter winters with more rain than snow— as well as any increases in the frequency or intensity of El Niños—should increase risks from floods and landslides in California, including higher flood peaks as well as large floods in winter rather than spring.

California at Night Shown here is a nighttime view of urbanization in California, clearly documenting the extent of human activity throughout the state. California, with the world’s seventh largest economy, is responsible for about 2% of its fossil fuel use.

Climate change and energy

Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are vulnerable to climate change because adults over-summer in freshwater streams before spawning in autumn. In California’s Central Valley their distribution is limited to three watersheds with small numbers appearing intermittently in seven other watersheds where access to coldwater pools remains unobstructed. Annual spring-run Chinook salmon runs used to number approximately 1 million fish, but they have declined to approximately 16,000 in the Central Valley.

Climate change and health An environmental group forecasts rising heat from climate change that is expected to boost smog and wildfires, leading to more health problems from asthma and other ailments.

Heat Waves & Health The number of deaths linked to California's record-breaking 2006 heat wave is up to 126, making the hot spell the state's deadliest in at least five decades Read more: bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/29/BAGHOK7 NTM1.DTL#ixzz1nAwCTsJWhttp:// bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/29/BAGHOK7 NTM1.DTL#ixzz1nAwCTsJW

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001: 21st century warming may be enough to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet >21 feet sea level Sea- level rise

Climate Change Impacts

What are Developing Countries? Developing countries – all countries and territories in Africa; all countries in the Americas except the US, Canada, Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Falkland Islands; all countries in Asia and the Middle East except Japan, Brunei, Hong Kong, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore, Taiwan and United Arab Emirates; all countries in the Pacific apart from Australia and New Zealand; plus the European states of Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Malta, Moldova, Turkey and ex-Yugoslavia.

Climate change impacts in developing countries Environmental Impacts Changes in rainfall patterns Increased frequency and severity of: Floods Droughts Storms Heat waves Changes in growing seasons Changes in water quality and quantity Sea level rise Glacial melt Socio-economic resources and sectors affected Water resources Agriculture and forestry Food security Human health Infrastructure (e.g. transport) Settlements: displacement of inhabitants and loss of livelihood Coastal management Industry and energy Disaster response and recovery plans

Vulnerability of developing countries to climate change Areas in tropical and sub-tropical regions most seriously affected : Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Small Island States (e.g Mauritius) Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the impacts of environmental change: – Between 1990 and 1998, 97% of natural disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries. 90% of all natural disasters are climate, weather and water related. Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources: – Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for 70% of regional employment and 35% of gross national product. Low adaptive capacity: – Poorest inhabitants of developing countries, struggle to cope with current extreme weather events and climate variability. Those dependent on natural resources: – Especially subsistence farmers dependent on rain-fed crops. Shanty town dwellers: – Living on unsuitable land, often unstable and/or flood prone and lacking infrastructure. Those living in extreme poverty: UN estimate that 1.3 billion people live on less than $1 per day.