Data Driven Safety

X-15 Simulator

X-15 Simulator Use Time honored criteria to predict aircraft behavior failed to uncover serious threats Pilot controlled flight-simulation device developed to aid research Researchers could now simulate and analyze hazardous conditions at a lower risk Unknown hazards of controlling X-15 flight explored before flight –10 hours simulation for 1 hour of flight The application of X-15 simulation techniques to other aerospace applications was an unforeseen data- information-knowledge safety benefit of that program

Flight Data Recorders

Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis Of Data Evolved from research programs in the 1950’s Metal strip scribed with basic parameters –Heading / Time / Airspeed / Altitude In 1958 the Civil Aeronautics Administration mandated use in commercial aircraft By 1980’s second generation digital recorders were mandated which captured 11 parameters for up to 25 hours of recording time –Pitch / Roll / Vert & Long Accels / Thrust / Controls / Radio transmission

The 1960’s Marked the Beginning of Significant Improvements in Aviation Safety 05/16/2002 FT-004Wc Hull loss accidents per year* Hull loss accident rate* [Accidents per million departures] Departures, Millions* Reductions possible with continued Industry effort *Accident and Departure data through 31 December 2001

Data Collection & Analysis Digital Flight Data Recorders –DFDR (Black Box) –Modern equipment has several hundred recorded discrete parameters Post accident investigations able to more accurately identify cause –Challenged to maintain hazard identification focus versus establishing blame Aviation safety recorded remarkably improved

Flight Operations Quality Assurance Systematic analysis of routine data Thousands of hours of recorded data reduced to distribution graphs Safety departments can focus on most critical information that exceeds some predetermined value

Digital Flight Data Recorder

Routine Download and Analysis Data – Information - Knowledge European community has employed this for over 30 years U.S. just now implementing –Litigious society turns safety information into a liability –Non-punitive policy is imperative to success –Objective is to identify trends – not individuals Cooperative efforts of 3 main parties necessary –Industry / Company –Regulators –Labor Positive results already realized

Computer Technology Enhances Safety Digital Flight Data Acquisition Units – DFDAU –Thousands of information sources can report to a central recording unit Quick Access Recorders – QAR –Ease of access to data stream Purpose of Program is to: –Detect latent patterns of behavior in human performance –Weaknesses in the aviation system supporting infrastructure –Anomalies in aircraft performance

New Focus on the Hazard Thousands of hours of data reduced to distribution charts (Information) Adverse systemic trends now addressed as root cause versus human failings (Knowledge) Leading Indicators in trend data are point of focus versus accident investigation (Data Mining) Safety departments can identify trends and lead decision makers to address highest threat (Proactive vs. Reactive)

Worldwide and U. S. Airline Fatalities Classified by Accident Type – 1992 through 2001 Total Worldwide Fatalities - 6,926 Worldwide U. S. Operators CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities Worldwide = 4,523 or 65% 6/10/02 AT-002 WW number of fatal accidents (112 total) U.S. Operators (22 total) CA 989 CC 212 CFIT Loss of control in flight In- flight fire Mid- air collision Fuel tank explosion Takeoff config. Wind- shear Fuel exhaus- tion Landing Runway Incursion Un- known Ice/ snow Turbu- lence RTO Misc. fatality CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain RTO = Refused Takeoff Loss of Control: CA = Control Available; CC = Control Compromised Note: Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included. Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded. Western-built commercial transports > 60,000 lbs. Hijack and Sabotage events are excluded Number of Fatalities

Data Driven Safety Summary Safety departments generally seen by accountants as not contributing to profitability –Safety as a Cost Center Powerful new tools allow safety departments to statistically predict where the next high cost accident will happen Limited resources are focused on the most significant hazards Reductions in maintenance, operating, and training costs realized –Safety as a Profit Center