Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) NCEP PSR 2014 George Millward 1

Space Weather Impacts Manned Spaceflight Increased radiation risk Power Grid Operations Grid failure, Grid capacity, Component Failure, GPS Timing Impacts from space weather are wide-ranging with potentially significant consequences. GPS Precision Agriculture, Surveying, Drilling, Military Satellite Operations Aircraft Operations, Airline Communication 2

1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth – WSA-Enlil in operations at NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts – Transitioning SWMF Geospace Model into operations at NCEP 3.Ionosphere/Upper Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere Modeling 3

Filament eruption on August (NASA/SDO) The Problem: Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Mass: to kg, Velocity: 300 to 3500 kms -1 4 Critical Questions: 1)Will the CME interact with Earth? 2)If so, when? 3)How strong will the effects be?

WSA-Enlil model: in operations at NWS since FY12 Enlil: Magneto-Hydrodynamic (MHD) model Grid: Spherical Coordinate System, 2 deg. lat/long, 512 radial (medium res) Fortran 90, MPI code, runs on 32 procs on WCOSS (1.5 hours wallclock) WSA: Empirical model. Provides steady-state background condition. 5

5.5 hours 6

Determining CME Parameters: 3 viewpoints and the CME Analysis Tool (CAT) Stereo A Coronagraph SOHO Coronagraph Stereo B Coronagraph CME CME Direction and Velocity 7

Both STEREO A and B are behind the Sun (No useful ‘2 nd /3 rd view’ plus no communication for 2015) Earth Sun STEREO A/B

2015: No images from STEREO Stereo A Coronagraph SOHO Coronagraph Stereo B Coronagraph CME CME Direction and Velocity No STEREO BNo STEREO A

Running CAT without STEREO Need to get CME Width, Lat, Lon, Speed, and Time CME Width and Speed cannot be determined unambiguously from a single view – Millward et al CME Width = *LOG(POS SPEED) Need a tool for computing POS speed plug into formula to get CME width – This functionality has now been built into the CAT tool

WSA-Enlil Model Developments CAT tool without STEREO (utilizes new empirical plane of sky speed vs cone angle relationship) - collaborative project between SWPC and the UKMet Office – immediate benefits for SWPC forecast office. Current Research (Space Weather Prediction Testbed, SWPT): Improved background model (WSA) Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport Model (ADAPT). Dynamically updating boundary to Enlil. Collaboration between SWPC and Air Force Research Lab. (AFRL) Dynamic, non steady-state, mode for Enlil. SWPT researchers working with Enlil developer at George Mason University (GMU) Collaboration with researchers at University of Colorado, Boulder (CU) – research into evaluation of CME mass (from Coronagraph images) – improved CME inputs to Enlil Research with GMU, CU and South West Research Institute (SWRI) Studies of implementing Magnetic field orientation into CMEs within Enlil. Ongoing Ensemble modeling studies All of the above remain research topics at present – no firm timeframe for implementation into operations

1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth – WSA-Enlil in operations at NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts – Transitioning SWMF Geospace Model into operations at NCEP 3.Ionosphere/Upper Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere Modeling 12

Ground Induced Currents (GICs) resulting from Solar Wind-Magnetosphere interaction 13

14 South Africa: -15 transformers damaged -$60 million impact -Basic commerce and security impaired United States: -Power reduced at nuclear facilities to mitigate impacts The Need for Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts: Example from 2003 Long intervals of high Kp, yet…effects regional Sweden: -Power outages -Transformer heating in nuclear power plant

Satellite measurements of Solar Wind Forecast of Geomagnetic activity: single value for the whole planet Simple empirical relationships CURRENT CAPABILITY PROPOSED SYSTEM Satellite measurements of Solar Wind Sophisticated 3D model of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere running on WCOSS Forecast of Geomagnetic activity as a global map Forecast: In 20 minutes the lights could go out, somewhere on planet Earth Forecast: In 20 minutes the lights could go out in New York, but not Seattle, Tokyo, etc.

16 real-time solar wind measurements (15 to 60 minutes upstream) 3D geospace MHD model ionospheric electric currents regional geo-magnetic activity prediction Geomagnetic activity forecasts from Geospace models

SWPC/NCEP Geospace Model Transition project 2014: NASA/CCMC and NOAA/SWPC, in collaboration with modelers, evaluated 5 Geospace models: 3 large-scale MHD models and 2 empirical models (metrics: regional dB/dt and regional K) Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF, University of Michigan) was chosen by SWPC as the Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) first principles model that would provide a substantial improvement in Geospace weather forecasting NOAA awards contract to UMich to assist SWPC/NCEP with model transition tasks FY15: SWPC working with scientists at the UMich to transition the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to operations at NCEP Initial implementation currently being tested on devWCOSS Basic requirement: continuous use of 64 – 128 procs on WCOSS (tbd) Model needs to run in a novel ‘real-time mode’ in order to provide viable forecast (lead time 15 to 45 minutes). Control scripts need to be able to stop/restart the model at will in response to changing Solar Wind conditions – assistance from PMB to achieve this (ecflow suggested as the control mechanism) Transition timeframe: Basic test-system running under DEV by October 1, 2014 (done)….initial system to be provided to PMB SPAs by October 1, 2015

‘Traditional’ forecast models (eg, HWRF or Enlil): The current state of the system is known (to a greater or lesser degree) The future drivers of the system are known (to a greater or lesser degree) The models can be run forward into the future to provide a forecast The models are scheduled to run at given time A Geospace forecast model is different: Model inputs can only be measured in real-time (forecasting these inputs is not possible) – and they are completely critical A Forecast (of between 15 and 45 minutes) is possible because model inputs are measured in real-time 1 million miles upstream of the Earth Think of this as a ‘future nowcast’ Critical to run model in a ‘real-time’ mode – any latencies in running model will seriously eat into the forecast lead time.

Schematic for SWMF running in real-time on WCOSS: basic time stepping input data [t]SWMF Control Script SWMF model [t-1] * SWMF [t] > 1 min simulation SWMF [t] < 1 min simulation Halt SWMF restart SWMF at [t-X] ** SWMF [t] > 1 min simulation SWMF saves restart file *** V[t] < V[t-1] (solar wind decreasing) V[t] > V[t-1] (solar wind increasing) V[t] >> V[t-1] (sharp increase - shock) *** Restart file always saved on the minute ** WCOSS stores last 45 files before removing * SWMF checks and waits for new input data

First Real-Time run [ACE -> SWMF -> Products] Sept 23 – 24 [SWPC -> NCO -> SWPC] FY14 milestone

1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth – WSA-Enlil in operations at NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts – Geospace Model Evaluation 3.Ionosphere/Upper Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere Modeling

Whole Atmosphere Modeling From the Ground to Space Motivation: – There is a strong need for improving forecasts of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere Structures in the ionosphere affect radio signals and modify radio transmission paths or block transmission altogether – Changes in Total Electron Content (TEC) impact GPS radio navigation – Ionospheric irregularities impact satellite communication. Neutral density changes affect satellite orbits (drag) – The lower atmosphere imposes a lot of day-to-day variability on the Ionosphere/Thermosphere system Planetary waves, gravity waves, tides, etc… propagate upward to the thermosphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings change the global structure The lower atmosphere modulates the density of the upper atmosphere and deposits energy and heat in region above 100 km.

Motivation: January 2009 stratospheric warming Polar strat-warm changes global circulation leading to vertical drifts in the ionosphere which in turn leads to instabilities which creates plasma structures and GPS scintillation Climatological 10 and 16 LT from ground GPS observations. Same on January 27, after the peak of the warming. Comparison of plasma drift climatology with observations on Jan. 27. Goncharenko et al. (2010):

JULIA radar observations (Hysell & Burcham, 1998) Many low and mid latitude ionospheric structures are driven from below Ionospheric Structures Stimulated by Tropospheric Phenomena Return Signal Strength

Solution: Couple the Extended GFS or “Whole Atmosphere Model” (WAM) to the “Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics” Model (IPE) Thermosphere GFS (Global Forecast Systems) Weather forecast model 0 – 60 km Whole Atmosphere Model WAM = Extended GFS 0 – 600 km Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics IPE Model IPE Grid Follows Magnetic Field Lines Multi-day forecasts of ionospheric conditions Coupling lat.- lon.-pressure level grids to field aligned grids Parallelizing IPE Model and coupling into WAM: big undertakings, FY13 through FY15

The Basic Tasks and Timeline: There are three critical research areas that need to be addressed: 1.The development and implementation of the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere- Electrodynamics (IPE) module 2.Understanding the impact of increasing spatial resolution of the model 3.Implementation and testing of new data assimilation techniques applicable to the middle and upper atmospheres and ionosphere. Fiscal YearTasks 2012WAM on Zeus 2013Higher Resolution WAM Begin coupling to IPE Begin GSI extension to ~120km Establish new data flows for ionospheric input 2014Couple to IPE Complete GSI Extension AMIE forcing complete for km Complete V&V of tropospheric weather Impacts 2015V&V Entire IDEA system Develop upper atmosphere product set 2016COSMIC2 – First 6 satellites launched (Low-inclination orbits) 2016Assimilate COSMIC2 and begin transition to WCOSS operations 2017WAM/IDEA operational on WCOSS 2017 – 2018Couple magnetosphere to IDEA 2018COSMIC2 – Final 6 satellites launched (High-inclination orbits)

Tasks 2015 Joint SWPC-EMC Q4 FY15 Milestone: “Execute a real-time, research parallel run of the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) coupled to the WAM data assimilation scheme (WDAS) on the NOAA WCOSS” Parallelizing IPE Model – complete, but optimization issues (solver performance, load balancing etc.) need to be addressed Validate day-to-day variability in IPE driven by WAM fields. Compare to COSMIC, GPS etc. WAM – IPE coupling: develop two-way coupling between WAM and IPE using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) software Simulation and validation of 2012 and 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW)

Wrapping Up: – WSA-Enlil in full operations since December Continues to predict CME arrival at Earth with mean forecast accuracy of +/- 7 hours. Upgrades being tested by SWPC and collaborators (AFRL, GMU, CU). The loss of useful STEREO data is a challenge - but practical developments of the CAT tool provide a promising workaround. – SWPC in the process of transitioning the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with the assistance from UMich model developers. Initial system on devWCOSS up and running (but lots more work to do). Plan/timeframe is to provide an initial Geospace forecast system to PMB by October 1, – SWPC/ CU CIRES researchers developing WAM/IPE upper atmosphere model as an extension to GFS. Parallelizing and coupling IPE into WAM have been major projects. Operational systems projected in the FY17-18 timeframe.