Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Lecture 3 Sociology SOCI 20182

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Basic population concepts Population number and population distribution.

Distribution by Population Number, 1998

Distribution by Population Density 2000

Distribution by Population Density in Ukraine (persons per sq.km), 2001

Population growth Population natural movement – population changes due to births and deaths as natural processes in contrast to ‘mechanical’ changes due to migration Population growth can be expressed in absolute numbers.

Growth of Russian population from 1897 to 2002 (in million) Red – urban population; Blue – rural population; Upper line - total

Population of Russia after 2000 Source: Goskomstat Russia

Components of population growth – births, deaths and migration Population growth between times T1 and T2 can be measured using the following balancing equation: P2 = P1+ B – D + I – O, where P2 – population at time T2 P1 - population at time T1 B – number of births between T1 and T2 D – number of deaths between T1 and T2 I – number of immigrants between T1 and T2 O – number of out-migrants (emigrants) between T1 and T2

Growth of population in three FSU countries

Population changes in Russia and Ukraine (population in million)

The concept of demographic rates In demography rates typically represent “occurrence/exposure” ratios Takes into account the size of population Rates are usually measured for specific period of time (period rates)

Growth rates in demography Population growth can be expressed using rates. Helps to compare countries with different population numbers. Rates are measured for specific period of time (usually for one calendar year) Crude Birth rate (CBR) – number of live births per 100,000 population during year X Crude Death rate (CDR) - number of deaths per 100,000 population during year X Rate of natural increase: CBR - CDR Rate of total increase: CBR – CDR + CMR CMR – crude migration rate per 100,000 = CRIM - CROM CRIM – crude rate of In-migration; CROM – crude rate of Out- migration. Both measured per 100,000 population. Population decline or depopulation occurs when rate of total population increase becomes negative (population decrease)

Depopulation in Russia or the “Russian cross”

Depopulation of Russian regions Natural increase per 1000, 2003

Administrative division in Russia Types of regions Oblast – the most common type Kray – similar to oblast National republic – higher level of autonomy National okrug – part of oblast, kray or national republic Moscow and St. Petersburg are counted separately by state statistics

New type of administrative division – federal okrug

Population growth rate Direct estimation

Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006 estimate)

FSU countries experiencing population decline in Belarus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Moldova Russia Ukraine

Percent growth in the FSU countries, 1999

Population structure Age and sex are the main components of population structure Demographers commonly use population pyramids to describe both age and sex distributions of populations. Youthful populations are represented by pyramids with a broad base of young children and a narrow apex of older people, and older populations are characterized by more uniform numbers of people in the age categories.

Population pyramid Russia, 2002

Types of population pyramids Young growing population

Types of population pyramids Aging population structure

Russia in 1989 and 2002

Russia in 2008 Source: Goskomstat Russia

Other commonly used characteristics of population Residence (urban or rural) Education Marital status (never married, married, widowed, divorced) Race or ethnicity Citizenship

Percent urban population, 2000

Distribution by education status, Russia from 1959 to 2002

Education system in Russia (and most FSU countries) Higher professional – more than 10 years of education (usually 15+) corresponds to college degree in the United States Secondary vocational – 8 years of school + two years of professional education Secondary general – 10 years of school Basic general – 8 years of school Primary general – 4 years of school

Distribution by marital status per 1000 population 16+ years Russia from 1989 to 2002

Distribution by ethnicity, Russia 2002

Nationalities of the Soviet Union: Police leaflet

Three the most common nationalities in Russia Russian Ukrainian Tatar

National composition for population of Ukraine according to 2001 census Nationality Ukrainians Russians Belarussians Moldavians Other The part of those whose mother tongue is Ukrainian totals 67.5% of the population of Ukraine in 2001, this is by 2.8 percentage points more than in The percentage of those whose mother tongue is Russian totals 29.6% of the population (decrease by 3.2%).

Distribution by citizenship Russia 2002

Changes in Russian population between 1989 and 2002 censuses Population decline – by 1,855,000 or 1.5%. The most rapid decline is observed during the last 10 years. From 1993 to 2006 population of Russia decreased by 4.5%. But population increase in Central and Southern federal okrugs from 1989 to However, after 1993 negative natural increase (decline) in all federal okrugs. Non-uniformity in population distribution increased. Stagnation of urbanization (deurbanization?)

Synthetic cohorts in demography A hypothetical cohort of persons that is represented when data for a year or other brief period are treated as though they relate to a single cohort. For example, the total fertility rate, which summarizes the age-specific birth rates for a population of women in a given year, may be assumed to represent the average total children born per woman for a synthetic cohort of women that passed through life bearing children at the given rates. Synthetic or hypothetical cohorts are based on cross-sectional distributions Demographic measures based on hypothetical cohorts are called period measures (e.g., period life tables)

Reading Anderson, B "Russia faces depopulation? Dynamics of population decline," Population and Environment 23(5):