 Property-Value Movement in Old North Durham By Katerina Valtcheva

Old North Durham - Overview  Developed with the construction of tobacco warehouses and related commercials and industrial ventures  Considered a bad area despite proximity to CBD  Farmers market, North Durham Elementary School have had some effect on the area  Hypothesis: Recent commercial upturn has had a positive impact on the area (Fullsteam Brewery, Motorco Music Hall, Geer Street Garden, CocoaCinnamon)

Old North Durham – Motorco Area

Old North Durham - Data  Forty house values collected annually for the first month of each year starting in Jan 2006 and ending in Jan 2013 (Zillow estimates)  Houses located on: W Geer St., North St., Hargrove St., Glendale Ave, Northwood Cir, and N Mangum St.  Built between 1910 and 2004  Average house size: 1375 ft 2 (± 523 ft 2 )  Average lot size: 6121 ft 2 (±1640 ft 2 )  Average year built: 1937 (±20 years)

Control Area: East Durham and Edgemont

Why this area as a control?  Similarly industrial: historical roots in milling and textiles  Similar houses, built around the same time period  Approximately the same distance from CBD  Also economically depressed area

East Durham and Edgemont

East Durham and Edgemont - Data  Houses located on: Hart St., S Driver St., Roberson St., Angier Ave, Vale St., S Plum St., E Main St., Clay St., and Ashe St.  Built between 1900 and 1992  Average home size: 1432 ft 2 (±476 ft 2 )  Average lot size: 7047 ft 2 (±1413 ft 2 )  Averages year built: 1929 (± 21 years)

Findings

Findings - Continued  Difference between the slopes of the best-fitting line: in favor of the control area

Findings - Continued

 Old North Durham: with the addition of data points through 2013, the slope of the price curve falls from.0206 to.0108  East Durham/Edgemont: the slope of the line describing the overall trend of house prices went from positive.0319 (between ) to negative.0275 (when data points are included through 2013)

Statistically Significant Differences  Running a Student’s t test comparing mean home prices on a year-by-year basis: the difference in mean home values between the two neighborhoods was statistically significant from 2010 (p<<0.001)

Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year Built

Appendix