© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Repower Case Results July 1, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Repower Case Results July 1, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas Market Modeling Frank E. Brock ( ) Senior Energy Market Specialist ICF International

2 Sensitivity Assumptions  Case assumes that 20 ST units (7,200 MWs) were repowered to CC units all in Downstate New York.  On a 2018 peak day, total New York gas consumption for Power increases by 110 MMcfd.  There is a shift to downstate consumption of 450 MMcfd. Peak Day Gas Consumption

3 Seasonal Consumption by Sector:

4 Seasonal Consumption by Region:

5 Daily RIAMS Conditions  Projected for January  Assumed temperatures on the peak day –New York City is 5 degrees Fahrenheit on the peak gas demand day Average temperature in January is 33 degrees; Average minimum is 15 degrees –Buffalo is -3 degrees Fahrenheit on on the peak gas demand day Average temperature in January is 25 degrees; Average minimum is 7 degrees

6 Daily Consumption by Sector: Jan 2018

7 Daily Consumption by Region: Jan 2018

8 New York Gas Peak and Average Day Imports/Exports

9 New York Monthly Average Gas Imports/Exports

10  Case has about 530 MMcf per day of unmet demand on a peak day. –68% in New England –Remaining 32% in New York 86% of curtailments in New York or 144 MMcfd per day in Downstate Approximately 50% of curtailments are firm RIAMS Model Curtailments Repower Case

11  Flows on most pipelines similar to reference 2018 case. –Most pipelines are very full on a peak day.  Unmet demand of about 530 MMcf per day in New York and New England due to pipeline constraints.  Relative to the Reference Case, on a Peak Day 2018: –Increased use of Iroquois into Long Island, 200 MMcfd Reduced deliveries to Dominion on Iroquois –Decrease of throughput on Algonquin to New England, -150 MMcfd RIAMS Model Conclusions Repower Case

© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Repower Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas Market Modeling Frank E. Brock ( ) Senior Energy Market Specialist ICF International