Storm Surge Modeling for the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Frank Buonaiuto, Robert Hunter, Douglas.

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Presentation transcript:

Storm Surge Modeling for the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Frank Buonaiuto, Robert Hunter, Douglas Hill, Roger Flood, Yi Zheng, and Christian Mirchel Stony Brook Storm Surge Research Group Marine Sciences Research Center Stony Brook University / SUNY Photo: copyright 2004 Twentieth Century Fox

A nor-easter in November 1950 caused extensive flooding of La Guardia airport (Bloomfield, 1999) FDR Drive during the December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999) Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

Nor’easter Storm Surge Nor’easter Storm Surge 5-8 March 1962 storm Source: N.A. Pore and C.S Barrientos, Storm Surge, (feet)

Lidar image of business district of Manhattan showing seawall locations and elevation (arrows). The imager is flying above the Hudson River looking east.

New York City Flooding Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995 Flood areas for hurricane: CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4

NYC Rise in Sea Level (courtesy Robert J. Nicholls) Observations Projection

Stony Brook Real-time MM5: 36 km,12 km and 4 km domains.

ADCIRC and MM5 (12 km) model domain. Storm Surge modeling uses12-km MM5 and Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC)– run in barotropic mode

ADCIRC Grid Around Long Island and NYC

Detail of gridding in lower Manhattan up to +8 m contour

Track of Floyd (1999)

Floyd Surface: 2100 UTC 16 Sept 1999 See (Colle MWR 2003)

12-km MM5 at 2100 UTC 16 Sept 1999 (21 h) oCoC L

Comparison of observations and modeling of sea level during Floyd

X What if peak observed surge occurred during Spring tide a week earlier? X

Model comparison of water levels at the Battery, NYC for CTL, Shifted, Super, and Max Floyd

Flooding experiments superimposed on topo and aerial photo Super Floyd (2 x winds) Max Floyd (shifted plus 2x winds)

Proposed Barrier Locations

close open close open The Narrows Perth Amboy Upper East River Water levels inside/outside barriers for Floyd simulations.

Incremental rise in water level east of closed East River barrier during CTL Floyd.

Venice Lagoon Design, 2010

Real-time Northern Stations

Summary The New York City region is vulnerable to storm surge flooding. The New York City region is vulnerable to storm surge flooding. ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999). ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999). More severe flooding would have occurred if Floyd approached during high or spring tide or if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane. More severe flooding would have occurred if Floyd approached during high or spring tide or if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane. A real-time surge model system has been setup. Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter. A real-time surge model system has been setup. Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter. Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Need to continue to investigate their feasibility. Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Need to continue to investigate their feasibility.