815 Western Avenue, Suite 400 Seattle, WA 98104 206.442.9200 Economic & Real Estate Trends and Outlook Presented to Windermere Real Estate August 5 th,

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Presentation transcript:

815 Western Avenue, Suite 400 Seattle, WA Economic & Real Estate Trends and Outlook Presented to Windermere Real Estate August 5 th, 2010 Presented by: Matthew Gardner Managing Principal

Which is it??

U.S Economic Outlook

% annualized growth rate GDP Growth Forecast Source: Gardner Economics LLC & BEA Growth has Been driven by Stimuli, But Then What? Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Initial Jobless Claims are Leveling Out. Concerns over Weak Growth Going Forward. U.S. Job Losses Slow… 12-month payroll job changes; in thousands Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data through June 2010 Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Fluctuations in the Labor Market Remain Localized!!! Detroit’s Employment Situation Source: BEA – Seasonally Adjusted – Through June 2010 Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, month payroll job changes; in thousands

Unemployment Will Peak at Around 10.0% Need 200,000 jobs per Month that Would Signify Growth. Last Months’ Figures Weren’t that Bad! Monthly U.S. Payroll Change Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Growth will Be Painfully Slow Upswing In the Job Market Apparent? Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010 Source: BLS & Gardner Economics –Data Current through June 2010

This Shows Our Credit Card Debt! Consumers & Lenders are Both Belt Tightening. …U.S. Revolving Debt Source: Federal Reserve – Seasonally Adjusted Data Through May 2010 Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Lenders are Contracting Credit, and Consumers are Paying it Down. Borrowing Back to Levels Not Seen Since Dec. ’05. …U.S. Revolving Debt Source: Federal Reserve – Seasonally Adjusted through May 2010 Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

We Remain Concerned About Our Longer Term Prospects. Labor Market Conditions Weighing on Confidence Levels. U.S. Consumer Confidence & Sentiment Source: University of Michigan & Conference Board Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

U.S. Economic Forecast TARP and TALF & PPIP, Oh My! Bank Recapitalization, Yes! But Lending..? No! P.I.I.G.S.!!!!! Inflation Concerns? The Recovery – V, U, W or ???? Overriding Question is whether the Consumer Will Return?

Annual Existing-Home Sales Back Close to 2001 levels. In thousands of units Source: NAR – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Momentum Has Slowed After Expiration of the Tax Extension… Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

National Total Existing-Home Sales Source: NAR – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Buyers Certainly Took Advantage of Tax Credit!! Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Sale Price of Existing Homes Source: NAR – Median Price; Not Seasonally Adjusted Year over Year, Prices are Down by 1 Percent. Stability in Prices May be Offset by Further Foreclosure Activity. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

U.S Home Ownership Rates (As a Percentage of Households) Source: US Census & Gardner Economics – Data Through Q Returning to Historical Norms? Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The Fed Started Buying Fannie & Freddie Debt. Source: Freddie Mac –Month End Figures. Financing Remains Very Stringent but Rates remain at Historic Lows. Jumbo Loans are Hard to Obtain Without a Substantial Down Payment. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 10-Year Treasury Yield Almost Hits 4%

Source: Gardner Economics & Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Will Increase as Economic Growth Stimulates Inflationary Pressures. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 5-Year Forecast

U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts & New Home Sales In thousands of units Source: U.S. Census – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Sales are Down by 17 Percent Year over Year. Single Family Housing Starts declined by 5 Percent from June Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Average Annual Household Growth In Thousands These People Will Have to Live Somewhere! Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010 Source: Gardner Economics LLC – U.S. Household Growth

Some Signs of Hope Mortgage Applications Moderately Stronger. Rates Remain at 50-Year Lows. We Could See an Overcorrection in Some States. Traction in Pricing Appears to be in Place, Specifically in Hardest Hit Markets. Extension to the Home Buyer Tax Credit Was Necessary.

Story of a Relationship.

Published Quarterly in Washington Since the Spring of Published Quarterly – Approximately 5 Weeks after the End of the Quarter. The Gardner Report

Non-Ag Employment Situation Shows Employment Growth from the Prior Year as a Percentage and in Absolute Terms. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Non-Ag Employment Situation Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Non-Ag Employment Situation Current Total Non- Agricultural Employment together with the Current Unemployment Rate. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Non-Ag Employment Situation Historical Comparison of Unemployment Rates. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market Transactional Velocities (Closed Sales) versus the Prior Year. The number Represents Year-to-Date Sales. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market Where are We Versus The Same Period a Year Ago. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market Growth Rate in Sales Prices (Single Family & Condominium ) Representing a Percentage Change as well As a Dollar Change. Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market Sales Price Data Represented Graphically Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market Detailed Price Data over Time. Looking Back Over a 5-Year Time Horizon Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

The State Housing Market A Visual Representation of Price Change Data Economic & Real Estate Forecast Aug. 05, 2010

Using the Report Windermere Has A Reputation for Accurate Reporting and Representation. This Report Can be Used as a Tool for Both Listing as Well as Selling Agents. It’s a Macro Report. Specific Sub-Markets will be Different.

Utilizing Gardner Economics Office Meetings/Kick-Off Meetings; Client Appreciation Meetings; Telephone Discussions. Macroeconomic Analysis. Detailed Discussion on the Local Economic & Real Estate Market.

Follow My Thoughts!

© Gardner Economics LLC The Preceding Presentation may not be Copied or Distributed without Prior Written Permission of Gardner Economics LLC Questions?