Russia and the West after the USSR, Part II

The year 2008, the game changer

2008 March: Dmitry Medvedev is elected President of Russia August: The Russia-Georgia war brings tensions between Russia and the West to the highest level since the Cold War October: The global financial crisis reaches its critical point November: Barack Obama is elected US President on a platform of change December: NATO decides to put off further Eastern expansion

“Frozen conflicts” Control of territory: which ethnic group, which state? Dissolution of the multiethnic Soviet Union is the trigger Struggles between nations – or between elites? Human rights – or property and power? Fights over the imperial spoils Participants can be pro-Russian or anti-Russian, pro- Western or anti-Western, depending on the situation  Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia)  Armenia-Azerbaijan (Nagorny Karabakh)  Moldova (Transnistria)

August 7, 2008: Georgian forces launch a major invasion of South Ossetia

Georgian tanks enter South Ossetia

Bush and Putin were attending Beijing Olympics

Russian forces enter South Ossetia through the Roki Tunnel

Vice President Cheney and Senator McCain argued for a US military strike at Russian forces

SS-21

French President Nicolas Sarkozi mediates an end to the conflict; the war ends on August 12

Scale of conflict 1. Size of forces  The Georgian side – 17-20,000  The Russian-Ossetian-Abkhazian side – 20-23, Casualties, killed  South Ossetian  Georgian – 412  Russian – 71  Abkhazian - 1

The war’s impact on Russia’s relations with the West  1. Showed how close to a major war the relationship deteriorated as a result of zero-sum thinking  2. Showed the danger of clients provoking a major war for their own ends  3. Showed that main leaders did not want a major war  4. Showed the danger of further NATO expansion  5. Manifested the need for a major review of relations

The global economic crisis

Changes in Russia’s GDP

Russia reverts to its traditional theme: Modernization This goal boosts Russia’s interest in further integration with the West

Afghanistan

: THE RESET IN RUSSIA-WEST RELATIONS

1.Improvement of US-Russian relations  Containment of Russia no longer key US priority  Serious dialog across the board  Security and arms control – key area of joint actions  Expansion of trade 2.Resumption of cooperation between NATO and Russia  Further NATO expansion put off  Afghanistan as the main area of common interests  Change of US policy and a new dialog on missile defence  NATO’s Lisbon Summit 3.New push for EU-Russia integration  New governments in Ukraine and Poland move to improve relations with Russia  Revival of The Trio – Russia, Germany, France

Continental Europe’s Big Three at the Deauville Summit, October 2010

NATO Summit, Lisbon, Nov. 20, 2010

Lisbon: NATO-Russia Summit

From Statement of the NATO-Russia Council meeting, Lisbon, Nov. 16, 2010: “We … recognized that the security of all states in the Euro-Atlantic community is indivisible, and that the security of NATO and Russia is intertwined. We will work towards achieving a true strategic and modernised partnership based on the principles of reciprocal confidence, transparency, and predictability, with the aim of contributing to the creation of a common space of peace, security and stability in the EuroAtlantic area.

Russian public attitudes to the US: balance of positive and negative, *

The problems Cold war legacies, inertia of the past Strategies, weapons, thinking Whither US-Russian relations? Whither NATO? Whither Russia? Issues between Russia and some of her neighbours

Russian concerns The West wants to undermine the current regime – that is, push Russia back into chaos The West wants to keep Russia down The West wants to control Russia – in particular, to grab Russia’s resources The West is not playing fair NATO continues to expand, despite Russian objections – or even because of Russian objections Conclusion: Russia needs to be strong and vigilant. Confrontation with the West is not desirable, but Russia must be prepared to defend its interests

Both sets of concerns do reflect some realities On both sides, there are forces which see the world through the prism of zero-sum games And they feed on each other And there are vested interests feeding this Manichean view And there is the organizing power of simplistic, binary thinking – Us vs. Them Ironically, both believe in American omnipotence Perhaps, this is the cardinal flaw in this type of thinking – because US power is increasingly limited

The most important trend: The accumulating weight of Western and Russian mutual interests Important changes have taken place, while thinking and policies on both sides were lagging behind these changes Both Russia and the West are better equipped than ever to develop new international policies through joint efforts - dialog, negotiations between Russia and the West, Russia and NATO

Pierre Morelle, high-ranking EU diplomat, on Russia-West relations, March 2008: “I am struck by the contrast between our interdependence and the problems in our relations which remain unresolved. It is a contrast between practical cooperation and psychological confrontation. Ties between the two worlds are strengthening on a scale which was unthinkable in the past – and yet psychological tensions remain. Even though experience implies that it is better to learn together – and even if we experience disappointments, we will achieve a lot if we move forward working together.” Март 2008 :: Пьер Морель. По одну сторону стола.

Country% fav. To US% fav. To Russia Russia41%89% Ukraine54%81% Canada55%52% India59%58% South Korea58%54% China34%46% Britain51%47% US80%44% Germany30%34% Israel78%31% Turkey9%17% Do you have favorable or unfavorable view of US, Russia? – Pew Opinion Research, 2007

, Pew Research: bush-years bush-years

2008 The lowest point in US-Russian relations in 25 years Then, the Cold War trend is reversed  The Russia-Georgia War and its political impact  The peak of the global financial crisis  Election of new Presidents in Russia and US  March 2008: Dmitry Medvedev elected as President of Russia  November 2008: Barack Obama elected as US President

Medvedev’s ideology Democratic capitalism as an ideal for Russia Rule of law, a liberal political outlook (rights, constitutionalism, accountable government) Russia as a great power Modernization of the Russian society and economy Close partnership with the West, coupled with Multivector foreign policy

% of Canadians with favorable attitudes to Russia (Pew Research)

% of Russians having positive attitudes to America (Pew Research)*

% of Russians who believe that the US takes into account other countries’ interests (Pew Research)*

How would you characterize Russian - US relations? Oct. 2005August 2008 Friendly12%4% Good neighbours9%2% Normal, calm39%16% Cool25%39% Tense10%28% Hostile2%8% Hard to say3%4% Russian public opinion on relations with the US, Levada Center*

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No one in 1999 expected that Russia’s resurgence And no one expected that the West would be confronting such a formidable array of challenges as today – from the economic crisis to Afghanistan to climate change – without ready solutions to deal with them So, on the Western side, there has been discomfort and unease about Russia’s coming back as a Great Power And a desire to find ways to delegitimize it (“Russia is not playing by the rules”)

In Russia, there was a recovery of self-confidence And a belief that while being “a Western client” was bad for Russia, putting Russia’s own interests first and driving hard bargains with the West does bring results But also: like winning huge in a lottery and scrambling to find ways to spend the money Assertiveness mixed with insecurity, a fear that this moment is fleeting, that things may change for the worse very quickly

Russia’s resurgence and Western troubles can be too easily pictured as a zero-sum game But it is anything but a zero-sum game Tremendous exaggeration of:  The degree of differences between interests  And of the ability to succeed without cooperation from the other side Russia cannot, and does not plan to, thrive on Western troubles Neither can the West hope to gain by undercutting Russia’s resurgence Win-win is possible – but both sides do need new thinking

: The Reset Prioritizing the US-Russian relationship Resumption of dialog and consultation Rebuilding arms control – New START Shelving NATO expansion Restoration of NATO-Russia ties Changes in the Ballistic Missile Defense plan  Different missiles  Including Russia Expanding cooperation on Afghanistan – use of Russian territory Closer cooperation on Iran

The Obama-Medvedev statement, London, April 1, 2009: “Reaffirming that the era when our countries viewed each other as enemies is long over, and recognizing our many common interests, we today established a substantive agenda for Russia and the United States to be developed over the coming months and years. We are resolved to work together  to strengthen strategic stability,  international security, and jointly meet contemporary global challenges, while also addressing disagreements openly and honestly in a spirit of mutual respect and acknowledgement of each other’s perspective.”

2012 The Reset is over  Tensions over NATO’s missile defence project  Middle East revolutions, Russia-NATO rift over Libya, Syria  Western support of Russian opposition forces trying to prevent Putin’s election as President  Europe moves closer to the US

The Ukraine Crisis

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