Margaret C. Kenski, Ph.D Arizona Opinion Kate Kenski, Ph.D University of Arizona

Overview  Introduction: The 49% nation  The 2012 election: What happened  The 2012 election: Why did it happen  The 2012 election: What does it mean for the future

The 49% Nation  In 2000, the nation was divided.  In 2012, the national divisions continue.  The voting public is increasingly disenchanted with both parties.  The divisions are political and cultural.

Values Gap  10% values gap in 1987 between major party identifiers has increased to 18% in  48% approve of gay marriage  53% agree that abortion should be legal  46% agree that immigrants threaten American values  40% Independents, 31% Democrats, 27% Republicans

Divisions within Parties  Republicans RINOs versus Tea Party  Democrats Blue Dog Democrats who are fiscally conservative versus Progressives who support big government

Popular Vote by County

Historical Standards Obama Shouldn’t Have Won  52% say things are off on the wrong track  55% say economic conditions are poor, staying the same, or getting worse  76% say the condition of the nation’s economy is not-so-good or poor  43,000,000 Americans are on food stamps  7.9% are unemployed  Avg household income has declined $4,000 since 2009  35% decline in the value of the avg middle class family’s assets

The 2012: What Happened  Electoral College 2012:332 Obama206 Romney 2008:365 Obama173 McCain  House 2012:195 Democrats234 Republicans6 Undecided 2010: 193 Democrats 242 Republicans 0 Other  Senate 2012:53 Democrats 45 Republicans 2 Independents 2010: 51 Democrats 47 Republicans 2 Independents  Turnout (% of those eligible to vote who actually voted) 2012:57.5% 2008: 62.3% 2004:60.4% 2000:54.2%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened TotalObamaRomney Democrat38%92%7% Republican32%6%93% Independent or something else 29%45%50%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened TotalObamaRomney Male47%45%52% Female53%55%44% TotalObamaRomney White72%39%59% Black13%93%6% Hispanic/Latino10%71%27% Asian3%73%26% Other2%58%38%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened TotalObamaRomney %60%36% %60%38% %55%42% %48%50% %47%52% 65 and over16%44%56%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened TotalObamaRomney No high school diploma 3%64%35% High school graduate 21%51%48% Some college/AA degree 29%49%48% College grad29%47%51% Postgraduate study 18%55%42%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened 2011 total family income TotalObamaRomney Under $30K20%63%35% $30K-$49,99921%57%42% $50K-$99,99931%46%52% $100K- $199,999 21%44%54% $200K- $249,999 3%47%52% $250K or more4%42%55%

The 2012 Election: Why It Happened Religious service attendance TotalObamaRomney Weekly42%39%59% Occasionally40%55%43% Never17%62%34%

Issues  Economy  Jobs  Immigration  GOP War on Women

Obama Gaffe: You didn’t build that

Romney Gaffe: 47%

Romney Killed My Wife Ad

GOP War on Women

Campaign Factors  Obama defined Romney  Obama had a better ground game  Romney missed opportunities  Hurricane Sandy

Future Political Landscape  Ultimately, voters opted for security over economic freedom and less regulation.  56% of voters in OH and MI approved of the auto bailout.  Tax increase measures that affect large number of voters are opposed by the majority.

Future Political Landscape  Neither candidates nor voters endorse serious solutions  Only taxing those making over $250K enjoyed a majority of support. That would raise $80 billion with a $1.4 trillion deficit.  National debt likely to rise to $20 trillion by 2016.

Future Political Landscape  Demographics have changed less than pundits proclaim.  Turnout raises the impact of some groups more than others. Low Evangelical turnout in 2008 Low White turnout in 2012 Gender gap probably less when other factors like income and marital status are considered

Future Political Landscape  Young voters have somewhat different social values than their parents  Campaigns will continue to be negative because it works  Gridlock in Congress will lead to more government by regulations than by legislation

Future Political Landscape  Trust in government is likely to remain low 76% trusted federal government to do the right thing in % trust the government today  Social media will continue to increase in importance as campaign media