Welcome to ANR at Noon November 22, 2013 Crop Market Outlook and the Farm Bill Chad Hart

U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78013,989 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51711,93214,837 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5574,3335,200 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0004,6484,900 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3961,450 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341, ,400 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52811,10812,950 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081, ,887 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0343,258 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2393,413 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6891,685 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3651,3201,450 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0983,243 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre

Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 11/15/

Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 11/15/

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good  Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?  Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (11/15/13) Corn$6.89$4.50$4.07 Soybeans$14.40$12.15$12.14

Farm Bill Titles I. CommoditiesIX. Energy II. ConservationX. Hort. & Organic Ag. III. TradeXI. Livestock IV. NutritionXII. Crop Insurance V. CreditXIII. Commodity Futures VI. Rural DevelopmentXIV. Miscellaneous VII. ResearchXV. Trade & Taxes VIII. Forestry

Ideas on the Next Farm Bill  Let’s look at the common features from the House and Senate bills  Both versions of the farm bill eliminate direct payments, countercyclical payments, ACRE, and SURE  The marketing loan program would continue  Livestock disaster programs would be reestablished

Reference Prices  Senate: 55% of 5-yr Olympic average MYA price  House: Set by law  Corn$3.70  Wheat$5.50  Soybean$8.40 Corn$2.95 Wheat$3.62 Soybean$6.29

ARC or RLC instead of ACRE  Revenue-based support program  Revenues based on 5-year Olympic averages for yields and prices  Yields and prices have cups (T-yields and reference prices)

AMP or PLC instead of CCP  Price-based support program  Reference prices establish targets  Works like CCP  Payment rate = Max(0, Reference price – Max(MYA price, Loan rate))

Dairy  Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program  Voluntary margin coverage, with the opportunity for supplemental coverage  Dairy Market Stabilization Program  Managed supplies when margins fall

SCO Examples from Last Year’s Bills Source: Congressional Research Service

Thank you for joining us today We invite your feedback and suggestions for future Noon webinars: John Lawrence – Chris Mondak- Next date: Dec 13, 2013 Windbreak Management Jesse Randall ISUEO Forestry Extension Natural Resource Ecology and Management