WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of Growth Trends in Road Transport (Passenger, Freight) D. Tsamboulas External Consultant

Introduction to WP3 The focus of this report was to provide reference scenarios to frame the general evolution of transport demand and supply. Such a framework does not necessarily require the definition of mathematical models linking socio-economic variables (inputs) and traffic levels (outputs), assigned on a network. The moderate and optimistic scenarios for socio-economic and transport demand described in this report highlight the most important medium and long-term trends, given the past and present development of key variables

Basic drawings of WP3 GDP will continue to increase steadily Population will decline slightly from around 2015 Passenger traffic trend includes the increased dependency on the car against other modes like bus/ coach and rail Freight transport main trends show dominance of road transport. Such general trends must be taken with caution, due to significant differences between regions

Transport framework Based on existing studies and available data of transport characteristics and “movements” of each country group,current transport trends were identified. data from , 2001, 2002 and 2003 were employed to establish current transport trends employed approach to trend analysis in forecasting involves the use of growth curves Connection of transport trends with socio-economic trends Transport forecasting, with 2000 as the base year where projections were available they were used (TINA, TIRS, SCENARIOS, CODE-TEN, STAC-TEN, REBIS, WORLDBANK, UNECE, EC etc.)

Country groups n

Transport trends of Group 1- Connection with socio-economic variables Total Passenger Traffic Growth = GDP Growth Total Freight Traffic Growth = (1,625) * (GDP Growth)

Transport trends of Group 2- Connection with socio-economic variables Car Passenger Traffic Growth=(1,55)*[(GDP/Population)Growth] Coach Passenger Traffic Growth=(-1,68)*[(GDP/Population)Growth] Freight Traffic by Road Growth = GDP Growth

Transport trends of Group 3- Connection with socio-economic variables Local traffic: 1.25*(GDP Growth) Overall traffic (including international): (Traffic multiplicator)*(GDP Growth) Where traffic multiplicator can be: 1.68, 2.10 and 2.6

Transport Scenarios Forecasting on group-country level Separately for passenger and freight Two scenarios Moderate and optimistic See tables next

Table 2 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car and bus/coaches-) Moderate Scenario * Billion pax-kms

Table 3 Group 1 Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car and bus/coaches-) Optimistic Scenario * Billion pax-kms

Table 4 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario * Billion tone-kms

Table 5 Group 1 Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario * Billion tone-kms

Table 6 Group 2 Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario

Table 7 Group 2 Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario

Table 8 Group 2 Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario

Table 9 Group 2 Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario

Table 10a Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries (Moderate scenario) Table 10b Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries (Optimistic scenario) *Projections per country, separately for passenger and freight impossible, but trend forecasting of total traffic, was relatively easier, since TINA had produced projections up to 2015

Table 11 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries (Moderate scenario) **Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3 countries n

Table 12 Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries (Optimistic scenario) **Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3 countries n

Road Traffic- Coaches Specificities Group 1: average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with 0,03% in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,16% increase in 2020) Group 2: average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with -0,03% in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,23% increase in 2020 Group 3: a similar course with that of Group 2 countries The above are based on a moderate scenario. The optimistic is not dramatically different though.

Conclusion for Coaches Traffic Passenger traffic is expected to grow but bus/coach modal share and traffic volumes are not expected to change dramatically up to 2020 Regarding the present decrease in public transport volumes, this is due to the high increase in car ownership and usage as well as in the development of air transport industry in all countries. Regarding the minor increases expected in the future, these would probably be a result of the EC policy objectives that have been defined for countries of Group 1 and 2, in order to diminish the environmental consequences of transport and bring about a shift in transport use from road to rail, water and public passenger transport.

Road Traffic- Trucks Specificities Group 1: moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual increase of 2,7% (starting with 2,67% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,82% increase in 2020). optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 3,29% (starting with 3,2% in the year 2000 and reaching a 3,38% increase in 2020) Group 2: moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual increase of 2,32% (starting with 2,19% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,44% increase in 2020). optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 2,63% (starting with 2,49% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,77% increase in 2020) For Group 3, current or future modal shares are not analytically available but the underlying trend shows a more rapid growth in road than in rail freight transport

Conclusion for Trucks Traffic Freight traffic is expected to grow and trucks “share” in absolute numbers-not as modal share- is expected to grow up to 2020, both in moderate and in the optimistic trend scenario.