Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Australia: Wet weather across the eastern Australian wheat belt contrasted with drier weather along the southern tier. The GFS forecasts rainfall to persist across Queensland. Southern Africa: Dry, hot weather continued across southern Africa, with deficits (above 30mm) increasing across South Africa as the rainy season approaches. The GFS forecasts continued dry weather. South America: Frontal rains persisted across south-central and southeastern Brazil, contrasting with below-average rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul. Widespread rainfall overspread central and eastern Argentina during the previous week. The GFS forecasts lingering rainfall across southeastern Brazil, with drier weather returning to Argentina. Highlights

ENSO Current Status For more information go to: During the last 4-weeks (5 Sep – 2 Oct 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and the South American coast, with some areas recording departures more than 2.0°C below average east of the International Date Line. General Summary: La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO signal amplified slightly during the previous week in sector 3, but no eastward propagation was observed. The GEFS forecast indicates a strengthening and eastward propagating MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.

Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South AmericaSouthern AfricaAustralia The dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous 90 days. Rainfall deficits greater than 30mm were observed across much of South Africa and southern Mozambique, including parts of Western Cape province. For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Below-average precipitation was observed across most of Brazil during the previous 90 days. In contrast, above-average rainfall was observed from Buenos Aires, Argentina, through far southern Brazil, and along Brazil’s northeastern tip. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across much of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region. Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During 26 Sep – 2 Oct 2010, enhanced upper-level anti-cyclonic circulation was observed across western Australia, contrasting with an area of enhanced upper-level cyclonic circulation observed over south-central South America. Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A A C C

Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than- average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During 19 – 25 September, areas of rising motion (negative omega) were observed across eastern Australia for a second week, and across southeastern Brazil. These areas were associated with showery weather. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, showers, showers continued across much of eastern Australia, including Queensland and New South Wales. Drier weather persisted across Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the previous 15 days, wet weather overspread northeastern Australia, while much drier conditions were observed along Australia’s southern tier.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the previous 30 days, above average rainfall was observed in Queensland and New South Wales, while below-average rainfall fell across the wheat belt in Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the increasing deficits across the southern tier of the wheat belt, contrasting with plentiful rainfall in southern Queensland.

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Below-average temperatures were observed across southeastern Australia, contrasting with near to above-average temperatures elsewhere.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 1-7 (4 – 10 Oct 2010), rainy weather, possibly heavy, remains likely across Queensland. Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (11 – 17 Oct 2010), generally showery weather is possible across most of the Australian wheat belt outside of Western Australia.

Forecast Verification: Australia Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, mostly dry weather continued across southern Africa.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa, with light showers in South Africa. Below-average rainfall was observed across southeastern South Africa.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across southern and eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the seasonably dry weather across most of southern Africa, though deficits are growing across South Africa.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Above-average temperatures were observed across southern Africa, enhancing the impacts of the dryness.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (4 – 10 Oct 2010), scant rainfall is forecast for southern Africa.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (11 – 17 Oct 2010) increased rainfall is possible across southeastern South Africa.

Forecast Verification: Southern Africa Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns First Freeze in southern Argentina GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Widespread frontal-based (not monsoon related) rainfall overspread south central and southeastern Brazil, while much below average rainfall fell across Rio Grande do Sul. Below- average rainfall continued across much of the upper Amazon River basin. Above-average rainfall overspread central and eastern Argentina, particularly La Pampa and Cordoba.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Below-average rainfall was observed across the northern half of Brazil, while frontal systems brought rainfall across south-central and southeastern Brazil. Widespread rainfall overspread Argentina during the previous two weeks, though accumulations below average were observed in the far east and parts of Buenos Aires.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Generally below-average rainfall was observed across Brazil north of Rio Grande do Sul, except for a small area from Mato Grosso do Sul into Sao Paulo. Generally near average rainfall was observed across Argentina.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days Below-average rainfall continued across central Brazil, but deficits further southeast began to erode with a stalled front. Near average rainfall accumulations were observed across northern Argentina and far southern Brazil.

Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Pre monsoon heat continued across much of northern and central Brazil.

Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Near to below-average temperatures overspread Argentina, with no widespread freezes observed in primary wheat growing areas.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 4 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (4 – 10 Oct 2010), lingering rainfall is likely across southeastern Brazil, with dryness persisting in Rio Grande do Sul. Drier weather is forecast to return to Argentina.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 27 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (4 – 10 Oct 2010), wet weather is forecast to continue across the southern half of Brazil, and increased rainfall is expected across northern Argentina.

Forecast Verification: South America Total Anomaly Forecast from 20 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Observed 27 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 Anomaly Total

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