Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | UK policy overview Gavin Smart, Deputy Chief Executive, CIH

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | The economic and fiscal context

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 3 Economic context

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 4 A drawn out recovery

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 5 Debt and austerity

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 6 Future government spending

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 7 Govt Spending reductions

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 8 Budget 2015 “roller coaster”

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 9 Public Spending implications IFS est coalition plans need £30bn of cuts by 2017/18 George Osborne breakdown  £12bn welfare  £5bn tax evasion  £13bn DEL spending cuts Poss that coalition plans need £35bn cuts  So spending cuts could be £18bn Lib Dems  £12.5bn tax rises  £3.5bnwelfare  £10bn DEL cuts Labour balance the budget (less investment) and debt falling by 2015  £!8bn cuts or not?

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 10 Regional economic growth

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 11 Regional Economic Growth

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 12 The productivity challenge

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 13 Earnings

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | The housing context

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 15 Inadequate supply

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 16 Transactions down

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 17 Mortgage lending – slow growth

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 18 Affordability consequences

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 19 Homelessness consequences

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 20 The squeezed middle

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | Housing & the election

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 22 Where is housing for GE 2015?

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 23 Housing playing much more in 2015 than 2010

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 24 Housing and public opinion People (75% & 81% renters) and politicians (67%) believe there is a housing crisis 46% believe there is a housing crisis in their area (76% Londoners & 60% renters) Politicians believe government can do something about it (86%) 68% MPs believe building more homes that are affordable should be a top government priority

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 25 Homes for Britain

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 26 Ticking the box for housing

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | Post-election policy environment?

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 28 Manifesto commitments Some common themes  Broad acceptance that state can/must play a wider role Although v diff views about how and for what purpose Guarantees vs direct commissioning vs borrowing for investment  Continued welfare reform Including most likely retention of some sort of cap Cap regionalisation Further savings?  Bedroom Tax repeal or reform (except for Conservatives)  Continued focus on home ownership/FTBers At the expense of other sectors? Right to Buy, Help to Buy, First Time Buyer homes etc

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 29 Manifesto commitments Common themes  New settlements/urban extensions  More affordable housing (but v diff defintions)  Degree of interest in capacity in council sector  Reform of PRS (except for Conservatives) Minimum tenancy lengths Tax changes Action on agents fees

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 30 Manifesto commitments All parties are still bigger on announcement than details There are questions for most of them:  How will Lib Dems get to 300k homes pa – is industry capacity there in the short term?  How does Labour use of Help to Buy ISA work?  Does the Conservative extended Right to Buy really stack up?  How credible is the UKIP “brownfield revolution”?  How will Greens fund 500k social homes by 2020?  How will Plaid recycling of HB savings work?

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 31 Conclusions Economic recovery is underway But how widely felt is it? Housing system is still showing signs of stress It will take long term action to address Housing is an election issue Being “an issue” is important Action even more so

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 32 Conclusions Consistency is critical  Creates confidence – crucial to increasing capacity  Allows for long term planning There are encouraging signs… …But across piece some way short of a complete strategy Housing crisis has been a generation in the making It will require concerted long term action to fix Can our politicians deliver?

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 33 Thank you Follow me on

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 34 Green Party manifesto 500,000 sustainable social rented homes - increasing the social housing budget from £1.5bn to £6bn pa during the Parliament End Right to Buy and Help to Buy Remove council borrowing caps New homes to be built to Passivhaus standard All PRS homes to meet energy performance band C by 2025 Devolve housing benefit budgets to councils Abolish the bedroom tax Keep housing benefit for under 25s Bring HB in line with average market rents PRS ‘living rent’ tenancy and cap rent increases Mandatory licensing scheme for landlords

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 35 Liberal Democrat manifesto 300,000 homes a year - HMT to directly commission if market does not deliver Increased capital investment in housing & publish a long term plan within the first year Build 10 new garden cities and encourage new garden villages Review CPO legislation – enable site assembly & Garden Cities Rent-to-own scheme - ownership through paying rent Multi-year tenancy with inflation-linked annual rent increases Consider banning letting agent fees Help to Rent - government backed deposit loans Reform bedroom tax & HB direct in return for reduced rents

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 36 UKIP manifesto Abolish the bedroom tax Lower the benefit cap Retain HB for under 25s Bring empty homes back into use and 50% more council tax on homes empty 2+ yrs One million homes on brownfield sites by 2020 Local people final say on major planning developments by referendum Scrap the National Planning Policy framework New planning guidelines prioritising brownfield sites and protecting the green belt

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 37 Conservative manifesto Extend the Right to Buy to 1.3m housing association tenants Reduce the benefit cap from £26,000 to £23,000 a year Cut welfare by a further £12 billion Build 200,000 new starter homes for FTBers under 40 Introduce a Help to Buy ISA for first time buyers Create a £1bn fund to unlock homes on brownfield land Build 275,000 additional affordable homes by 2020 Double self-built homes by 2020 through Right to Build Local brownfield land registers & ensure 90% of suitable brownfield land is have planning permission by 2020 London land commission to identify brownfield land Deliver 95,000 homes through new ‘housing zones’

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 38 SNP Manifesto UK wide target of 100k affordable homes per year Halt rollout of universal credit Abolish the bedroom tax Support help to buy

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 39 Plaid Cymru manifesto Planning reform – local need & benefit – Welsh language considerations Rent controls HB savings & additional borrowing for new social housing HRA subsidy reform to see rental income retained in Wales Extend Home Buy Higher council tax for second homes 12 month minimum PRS tenancy

Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us | 40 Labour manifesto House building to 200,000 pa by 2020 – implement Lyons Create a Future Homes Fund funded by Help to Buy ISAs ‘Use it or lose it’ planning powers Support for smaller builders Prioritise capital investment and ‘reform council house financing’ – inc. through locally negotiated benefit savings Build a new generation of garden cities Abolish bedroom tax Pause and review universal credit + revised benefit cap PRS three-year tenancies+ rent rise ceiling – no agents fees, register of landlords Mansion tax on properties over £2m