Building Resilient Communities URS Group Inc ASFPM National Conference May 2010 Effectively Adapting to Climate Change

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Agenda What is a resilient community? — Understanding the climate challenge — Applications of resilience to regional planning and climate change adaptation — Lessons learned from Hillsborough County, FL

What is a Resilient Community?

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change What is a Resilient Community? 1 Resilience… -Is the capability to anticipate risk, limit impact, and bounce back rapidly through survival, adaptability, evolution, and growth in the face of turbulent change Resilient communities… -Should be able to avoid the cascading system failures to help minimize any disaster's disruption to everyday life and the local economy -Have the ability to quickly return citizens to work, reopen businesses, and restore other essential services needed for a full and swift economic recovery 1. Source: Community and Regional Resilience Institute (CARRI),

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Community Resiliency Characteristics  Includes various social, economic, infrastructure, environmental, and institutional components  These components need to be in balance and grow coherently over time

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Climate Change and Transportation Resiliency  Possible climate change impacts: -Rising temperatures -Rising sea levels -Hydrologic changes -Shifts in weather patterns  Transportation resiliency issues -System capacity Managing, maintaining and constructing new infrastructure Continuity of flow – personal, business and commercial travel -Travel demand Increases in population Demographic shifts Energy availability Changes in travel behavior – modal shifts -Land use and economic development Development policies and pattern shifts Health and quality of life attitude shifts -Environmental Streamlining Air quality improvements Energy consumption reductions

Understanding the Climate Challenge

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Powerful storms and other natural hazards already wreak havoc today  Since 1953, there have been a total of 1,907 disaster declarations (an average of 33 a year) 2  There has been a surge in economic losses from natural disasters in recent years, 3 from $50 billion in the 1950s to $800 billion in the 1990s  Coastal U.S. cities have incurred some of the more significant losses due to hurricane events (i.e., Hugo, Fran, Katrina, and Ike) 2.FEMA Resilient Coasts – A Blueprint for Action. April The Heinz Institute.

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Key challenges for planners and engineers  Range of hazards -Unpredictability of occurrence -Uncertainty of severity of impact  Critical infrastructure/node identification -Robustness Protection, maintenance, replacement -Redundancy  Incorporating climate change science and risk management into regional planning  Funding for required investments Source of Image:

Applications of Resilience to Regional Planning and Climate Change Adaptation

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Considering resilience as part of the regional transportation planning process  Developing a coordinated, analytical process with metropolitan planning organizations and state departments of transportation -Meeting travel demand through long-range multi-modal planning and programming Considering the impacts of a range of threats on the transportation system Understanding the potential impact of climate change on travel demand, modal assignments, and strategic capital investments -Creating an inventory of critical infrastructure -Advancing asset management in the context of system redundancy and robustness -Ensuring safe and secure system-wide and modal operations

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Other Bridges Critical Bridge Connections Utilities Economic Impact On-Water Storage Areas Intermodal Facilities High Low LightSevere Ferry Systems Moderate Sample risk assessment of critical infrastructure and key resources Resiliency

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Looking at resilience beyond the current environment  Developing climate change/transportation tools to support analysis and decision-making -Periodic regional threat and vulnerability assessments Identifying and modifying an applicable methodology Ensuring ease of use -Identifying range of appropriate and affordable protective measures Risk calculus – what are acceptable levels of risk Benefit cost analysis Travel demand modeling and sensitivity analyses Plans and policies

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Looking at resilience beyond the current environment  Advancing projects into regional and statewide Transportation Improvement Programs -Selecting investment prioritization criteria -Assigning appropriate weight to climate change and resiliency  Identifying and implementing adaptation strategies -Relocating infrastructure -Adding transportation redundancy -Modifying land use policies in vulnerable geographical areas -Increasing the mix of energy generation – renewables, etc. -Changes in building codes

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Looking at resilience beyond the current environment  Assessing the relationship of advance transportation technologies (e.g., Intelligent Transportation Systems) to climate change and enhancing infrastructure resiliency -Shift in investments from capital improvements to technology -Increasing emphasis on real time information exchanges and creating situational awareness to manage the transportation system  Expanding regional coordination as part of long range transportation planning to include interdependent sectors and stakeholders -Energy -Communications -Water -Emergency management -Law enforcement

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Looking at resilience beyond the current environment  Regularly re-evaluate the impacts of climate change as part of the regional transportation planning process As better science becomes available As threats and vulnerabilities are reassessed As policy decisions are made As knowledge of how infrastructure and people will react/adapt to climate change impacts emerges  Determining what changes need to be made with regards to plans, policies, regulations and capital investments

Recent Trends in Regional Transportation Planning

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Legislative and Regulatory Requirements Affecting Regional Transportation Planning  Air quality and transportation planning -Conformity analyses for non-attainment areas Tests, using analytical models, the relationship between travel demand and air quality Planning process also considers demographics and economics, and jurisdictional and institutional issues Influences direction of regional planning and capital investment selection  Security and emergency management -SAFETEA-LU calls for MPOs to incorporate security and emergency management into its long range transportation plans Creates an additional dimension and rationale for assessing short and long-term capital investment needs Requires identifying critical infrastructure, nodes and resources; where resiliency and redundancy is necessary Provides additional insight on how to manage the transportation system when responding to an event

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Possible next steps for climate change and regional transportation  Role of threat and vulnerability assessments -Adaptation of a methodology to be applied at the regional level -Determining the frequency an assessment is completed -Translating finding into protective measures that enhance transportation resiliency  System performance and critical infrastructure -Establishing a level of system performance to be maintained -Establishing criteria for identifying and classifying critical infrastructure -Identifying the short and long term vulnerabilities of the infrastructure  Assessing system disruptions -Modifying regional travel demand models -Conducting travel demand sensitivity models -Identifying alternatives, additional capacity

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Possible next steps for climate change and regional transportation  Long range transportation and land use plan development -Add a climate change adaptation chapter in plan(s) -Identify relevant adaptations -Re-assess ITS architecture -Determine its relationship to the system’s safety, security, and emergency management -Limit development of areas that could become vulnerable -Plan and budget for relocation of vulnerable population  Transportation Improvement Program -Develop a climate change adaptation criteria for advancing projects toward implementation -Build for more severe hazard events (enhance the robustness of the built environment)  Asset management practices -Develop criteria for prioritizing/ staging maintenance -Developing new management systems

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Moving in a new direction: Hillsborough County MPO – Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP)  Added security/emergency management chapter based on, providing a basis for incorporating climate change and resiliency considerations: -Evaluation of relevant hazards and threats -Identification of critical facilities and nodes within the regional transportation network -Review of issues related to climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure -Prioritization of vulnerabilities -Recommendation of appropriate mitigation measures for the identified vulnerabilities

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change -Integration of LRTP efforts with post-disaster recovery planning activities and strategies (both efforts support community and regional resilience) -Brought together diverse stakeholder groups – public works, regional transit, regional planning commission, and emergency managers to identify and prioritize critical infrastructure -As a result, modified the LRTP project prioritization process (from which projects are funded) to account for transportation security and emergency management issues -Integrated security and emergency management as a component of the regional transportation planning process on a continuous basis Hillsborough County MPO – Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP)

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Mainstreaming Climate Change and Resiliency into Regional Planning and Projects  Actively promote climate change and resiliency in the identification, planning, design, negotiation, and implementation of strategies, policies, programs, and projects across agencies and sectors  Consider climate change and resiliency in the earliest stages of the decision-making cycle, when regional challenges and proposed interventions are framed  Increase understanding of how initiatives outside the narrowly defined “physical security measures” can be designed to support regional climate change and resiliency  Target investments that enhance the robustness, resourcefulness, and recovery of the region while also achieving its core objectives

Building Resilient Communities – Effectively Adapting to Climate Change Thank You For More Information Contact Bob Brodesky