Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson

Backstory Effects of Sept 11, 2001 –Shook America to it’s core –Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack –Changed airport security procedures The airports are still vulnerable… Americans consider flight as a symbol of freedom Terrorist want to deny transcontinental travel M 2

Problem Statement How does the loss of an airport or airports effect the ability of the airlines to move people across country? M 3

Nodes M 4

Start Nodes M 5

End Nodes M 6

Example of Edges M 7

Example of Capacity M 8

Data Department of Transportation –Bureau of Transportation Statistics Amount of flights per month Divided by 31 for average daily flights P 9

Example of an Attack P 10

Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 1110 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 SEA SFO LAX MSP DEN ORD HOU DFW SLC BOS ATL IAD JFK S T Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 P 11

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Terrorist attack transcontinental travel M 12 P S E 440 ∞

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M 13

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M 14

Comparative Results Largest Airports Atlanta568 Chicago501 Los Angeles463 Denver453 Phoenix440 Dallas421 Las Vegas375 Houston 299 Attacked Airports Los Angeles463 San Francisco276 Seattle211 San Diego202 Phoenix440 Las Vegas375 Denver453 Salt Lake City219 M 15

Operator Resilience Curve M 16

FBI Involvement The initial plan is to attack the west coast FBI was alerted to the plan and intervenes Resource restrictions are limited to four nodes The four largest nodes are protected –Seattle –San Francisco –Los Angeles –San Diego P 17

FBI Involvement Destroy P 18

FBI Involvement Destroy P 19

Comparative Results Largest Airports Atlanta568 Chicago501 Los Angeles463 Denver453 Phoenix440 Dallas421 Las Vegas375 Houston 299 Attacked Airports Phoenix463 Las Vegas276 Denver211 Dallas202 Houston440 New York375 Atlanta453 P 20

Comparative OR Curve P 21

New Assumption Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers M 22 S E 440 ∞

Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 480 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 SEA SFO LAX MSP DEN ORD HOU DFW SLC BOS ATL IAD JFK S T Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 M 23

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M 24

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M 25

Operator Resilience Curve 0% M 26

New Assumption Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers Attacks degrade airports –If attacked airports capacity is 50% –A second attack and the airport is destroyed P 27 S M2 M1 E 220 ∞ ∞ 440

Attacking Transcontinental Travel Degrade Destroy P 28

Attacking Transcontinental Travel P 29

Operator Resilience Curve 2 0% P 30

New Assumption Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers Attacks degrade airports –If attacked airports capacity is 20% –A second attack and the airport is destroyed M 31 P S M2 M1 E 352 ∞ ∞

Attacking Transcontinental Travel M 32

Attacking Transcontinental Travel M 33

Operator Resilience Curve 3 0% M 34

Conclusion If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on transcontinental travel, authorities can predict the location of the attacks If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on the west coast, authorities should be prepared for significant lose in transcontinental travel Airports should be designed such that they are difficult to completely destroy P 35

Follow-Implementations Change the start and end airports Adjust the damage levels Adjust the number of attacks per airport Add additional nodes 36

Questions Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson P