Applying Population Ecology: The Human Population G. Tyler Miller’s Living in the Environment 14 th Edition Modified by Mr. Manskopf Chapter 10 G. Tyler Miller’s Living in the Environment 14 th Edition Modified by Mr. Manskopf Chapter 10

Population Growth: Key Concepts  Factors affecting human population size  Managing population growth  Human population problems

Section 1 Key Ideas What is demography? How is population size affected by birth rates, death rates? How fast is the world’s population growing? What is doubling time? Rule of 70 What are fertility rates? How have they changed? What factors affect birth rates and fertility rates? What factors affect death rates? Impacts immigration has on U.S. population.

What is demography? Demography: is the study of the size, composition, distribution of human population and the causes and consequences of changes. How many people live where? How long are you expected to live? How many children are you likely to have.

Factors Affecting Human Population Size  Population change equation  Crude birth rate (BR): per 1,000  Crude death rate (DR): per 1,000 Population Change Population Change = = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

Population Problems

Average crude birth and death rates for various countries in 2004.

How fast is the world’s population growing? Birth rates and death rates coming down (death more quickly) 219,000 more daily (97% in developing countries) 80 Million per year Exponential growth 1.25% down from 2.2% in 1963

The world’s 10 most populous countries China and India 37% of world 8 Billion people by 2050

Describing Population Changes Doubling time: time in years it takes world to double…. RULE OF 70 70/ percent changing 70/1.25 = 56 years to double Africa growing at 2.8%...how long to double? Doubling time: time in years it takes world to double…. RULE OF 70 70/ percent changing 70/1.25 = 56 years to double Africa growing at 2.8%...how long to double?

Describing Population Changes  Fertility: number of births that occur to an individual woman.  Replacement-level Fertility : the number of children a couple must have to replace themselves. 2.1 developed countries, 2.5 in developing countries  Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman typically has during reproductive years. Global Avg. = 2.8 (1.5 in developed, 3.1 developing down from2.5 and 6.5 in 1950)

Fertility rates for various countries.

UN World Population Projections assuming TFR of 2.5 high, 2.0 medium and 1.5 low

How Have Fertility and Birth Rates Changed In the U.S. 1900: 76 million 2006: 300 million Post WW II Baby Boom, 1946 to 1964 added 79 million TFR reached : 2.9 million added 59% due to more births/deaths the rest from immigration Projected: 2050, 420 million and 2100, 571 million

U.S. Birth Rates: Fig. 10-8, p Births per thousand population Year Demographic transition Depression End of World War II Baby boomBaby bustEcho baby boom

U.S. Population Estimates

Comparing U.S., Mexico and Canada

Major changes that took place in the U.S

Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates  Children in Labor Force  Cost of raising and educating children  Availability of pension systems  Urbanization  Education and employment for women  Infant mortality rate  Average marrying age  Abortion  Availability of birth control  Children in Labor Force  Cost of raising and educating children  Availability of pension systems  Urbanization  Education and employment for women  Infant mortality rate  Average marrying age  Abortion  Availability of birth control

Effectiveness of typical types of birth control.

Factors Affecting Death Rates  Life expectancy: the average number of years a newborn is expected to live.  Life expectancy: the average number of years a newborn is expected to live.  Infant mortality rate (IMR): number of babies per 1,000 that die before 1 st birthday.  Infant mortality rate (IMR): number of babies per 1,000 that die before 1 st birthday.

Life expectancy 1955 to 2004: Increased 48 years to 67 years (76 in developed world, 65 in developing) U.S. 77 years and projected 82 by 2050 Poorest countries of Africa only 49 years

Life expectancy Increased food supplies Better nutrition Advances in medical field (vaccines, antibiotics) Advances in sanitation Safe water supplies Increased food supplies Better nutrition Advances in medical field (vaccines, antibiotics) Advances in sanitation Safe water supplies

Infant Mortality Infant mortality is viewed as the single measure of a society’s quality of life…health care and nutrition 1965 to 2004: drop 20/1000 to 7/1000 and 118/1000 to 61/1000 in developing world U.S. 1900: 165/1000 to 2004: 7/1000

Infant Mortality 3 Factors Keep U.S.IM High: 1)Inadequate health care for poor and pregnant woman. 2) Drug Addiction among pregnant woman 3)High teen birth rate 3 Factors Keep U.S.IM High: 1)Inadequate health care for poor and pregnant woman. 2) Drug Addiction among pregnant woman 3)High teen birth rate

U.S. Immigration What do you think environmental impacts of immigration to U.S. might be?

Legal immigration to the U.S. from 1820 to : large increase due to Act passed by Congress

Section 2: Population Age Structure Key Ideas What are age structure diagrams? How can you use them? What are some effect of population decline from reduced fertility? What are some effects of population decline due to rises in death rates?

How does age structure afect population? The number of people under age 15 is a major factor in determining future population. 33% developing world 17% developed world 1.9 billion set to enter reproductive age

Ages 0-14 Ages Ages Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Population Age Structure Fig p. 184

U.S. Population by age 1900, 2000, and 2050 projected

Population structure by age and sex in developed and developing countries.

Comparison of key demographic indicators in 2004 for 3 countries…one highly developed, one moderately developed and one less developed.

Tracking the baby-boom generation in the U.S.

What are some impacts of population decline from reduced fertility? 40 Countries Populations Stabilized or Declining (growth rates below 0.3%) all in EU Expect Japan UN Project by 2050 most developed countries (not U.S.) Mean more of population shift to elderly 40 Countries Populations Stabilized or Declining (growth rates below 0.3%) all in EU Expect Japan UN Project by 2050 most developed countries (not U.S.) Mean more of population shift to elderly

What are some impacts of population decline from reduced fertility? Impacts Social and Economic of this decline: Large elderly population Increased medical costs Less people in workforce More stress on fewer taxpayers Labor Shortages All lead to political changes

What are some impacts of population from rise in death rates? AIDS to cause premature deaths of 278 million from 2000 to 2050 (almost equal to U.S. population)…mostly in Africa Remove productive workers Increase in orphans AIDS to cause premature deaths of 278 million from 2000 to 2050 (almost equal to U.S. population)…mostly in Africa Remove productive workers Increase in orphans

Global Aging

Section 3: Solutions Key Ideas What are the advantages and disadvantages of reducing births? How can economic development help reduce birth rates? How can family planning help reduce birth rates and abortion rates and save lives? How can empowering woman help reduce birth rates?

What are advantages and disadvantages of reducing births: Controversy Can the world’s resources support an additional 2.5 billion by 2050? Is the Earth overpopulated? Carrying capacity If yes, what should b done? What is a sustainable population? Can the world’s resources support an additional 2.5 billion by 2050? Is the Earth overpopulated? Carrying capacity If yes, what should b done? What is a sustainable population?

What are advantages and disadvantages of reducing births No Need to Reduce Population Life spans increasing People free to have as many kids as want Slowing population growth = economic decline. Increased technology will provide answers. Yes, we must reduce population Basic human needs of people not being met Larger population = larger human ecological footprint Resources being used up rapidly Yes, we must reduce population Basic human needs of people not being met Larger population = larger human ecological footprint Resources being used up rapidly

How can economic development reduce birth rates? History indicates that as countries become economically developed, their birth and death rates line. This happens in 4 stages: 1)Preindustrial 2)Transitional 3)Industrial 4)Postindustrial Look up these stages (pg 188) for HW History indicates that as countries become economically developed, their birth and death rates line. This happens in 4 stages: 1)Preindustrial 2)Transitional 3)Industrial 4)Postindustrial Look up these stages (pg 188) for HW

The Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 2 Transindustrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low growth rate Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Negative growth rate Birth rate Total population Death rate Time Fig p. 189

How can economic development reduce birth rates? Transition countries may get caught: HIV/AIDS Too much debt Lack of skilled workers Less economic assistance Not enough or too much decrease in population Transition countries may get caught: HIV/AIDS Too much debt Lack of skilled workers Less economic assistance Not enough or too much decrease in population

How can family planning reduce birth rates? Family planning has been a major factor in reducing the number of birth and abortions around the world. Provides educational and clinical services to help couples choose how many children they want

How can family planning reduce birth rates? Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs in developing countries from 6 in 1960 to 3.1 in Still 42% of pregnancies unplanned and 26% aborted.

How can empowering women reduce birth rates? Women tend to have fewer kids if they are educated, have a paying job outside the home, an do not have their human rights suppressed. Why do you think that is? Women tend to have fewer kids if they are educated, have a paying job outside the home, an do not have their human rights suppressed. Why do you think that is?

Typical workday for women in rural Africa…how does it compare to your average day?

Solutions: Influencing Population Size  Migration  Environmental refugees  Reducing births  Family planning  Empowerment of women  Economic rewards and penalties

Section 4: Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India  Poor planning  Bureaucratic inefficiency  Low status of women  Extreme poverty  Lack of support Generally disappointing results:

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China  Economic incentives  Free medical care  Preferential treatment  Very intrusive and coercive  Locally administered

Section 5: Cutting Global Population Growth  Family planning  Reduce poverty  Elevate the status of women  Improve health care  Increase education  Involve men in parenting  Sustainability