January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 1www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership January 30, 2004 Presented by Richard F. Ogburn, Principal Planner

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 2www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership Purpose of the Partnership Enhance the ability of the partners and other interested parties to prepare accurate and timely demographic and economic forecasts and analysis in the Southeast Florida region (composed of the 7 counties in the jurisdiction of the two Regional Planning Councils - South Florida and Treasure Coast).

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 3www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 4www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference In 2000, the 7-county region had a population of 5.5 million, up from 3.5 million in 1980 and 4.5 million in Projected growth for the next 20 years is 250 net new residents each and every day. Almost one-third of the region’s population in 2000 was foreign-born. Over half of the net new residents each year come from abroad. South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 5www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Decennial Population Growth,

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 6www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership The Partnership acquired an 8-region 53-sector version of REMI’s Policy Insight. The eight “regions” of the model are: Identical copies of the model are maintained at 6 locations: the 2 RPC offices, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and the South Florida Water Management District.

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 7www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Why Coordinated Forecasts? A coordinated forecasting process will improve the internal consistency of forecasts within the region. For example, the estimate of future net migration between Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be useful for each county’s population forecast. A coordinated forecasting process would ensure that both counties use the same inter-county migration estimate in their respective forecast. Failing to do so will create an internal inconsistency from a regional perspective.

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 8www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference County-to-County Migration,

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 9www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Growth of the Foreign-Born Population

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 10www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Growth of the Foreign-Born Population

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 11www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference A coordinated forecasting process will create opportunities for testing the reasonableness of county-based forecast results. Since 1970, Southeast Florida’s share of the total population of the State of Florida has remained stable, although it is projected to decline, due to factors such as the proportionally lower supply of developable land and the higher cost of living in the region. Forecasts at the individual county level could be combined and checked against the region’s share of the state. Why Coordinated Forecasts?

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 12www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Region’s Share of State Population

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 13www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference The use of a consistent forecast for the entire region will enhance the ability of the region and each of its component counties to negotiate successfully for an appropriate share of state and federal resources. Official population estimates for Southeast Florida used in the state’s 2001 budgeting process underestimated the April 1, 2000 population of the region by almost a quarter of a million residents, when compared with Census 2000 data (85.5% of the overall underestimate in the State). Why Coordinated Forecasts?

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 14www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Differences in Population Estimates

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 15www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference As the interrelationships among counties grow stronger, it is increasingly important to forecast growth and change at the regional level. The labor market in Southeast Florida is increasingly becoming a single regional market, with many people living in one county while working in another. As population growth in one county is also dependent upon conditions (such as proximity to build-out) in other counties, it is increasingly difficult to conduct accurate forecasting solely at the county level. Why Coordinated Forecasts?

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 16www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 1990

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 17www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 2000

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 18www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Build expertise in demographic and economic analysis in the region and its component counties – shared learning. Improve understanding of the region and the relationships among its member counties. Develop consensus demographic and economic forecasts, adjusting the regional REMI control as appropriate. Support systematic use of the model in project and policy analysis to ensure improved decision-making. Convening the Partnership: Objectives

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 19www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference SFRPC, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach met to discuss demographic forecasts starting in 2001 Broward County encouraged inclusion of regional economic forecasting and fiscal impact analysis Agreement to acquire a model – Summer 2002 Letter of Interest – REMI, Rutgers Center for Urban Policy Research, Washington Economics Group Selection of REMI’s Policy Insight – late 2002 Expansion of group to include counties in the 2 RPCs Convening the Partnership: Steps

January 29-30, 2004 Fort Lauderdale, FL 20www.sfrpc.com REMI Southeast Policy Analysis and Users’ Conference Other Potential Users School Boards Economic Development promotion organizations Airports Seaports Metropolitan Planning Organizations Florida Department of Transportation Districts Developers Convening the Partnership: Coordination