Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Is the recession over yet?

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Slow, steady economic growth  Sustainability?  Stabilization of labor market  Double-dip recession?  Inflation may become problematic in long term

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

The Local Economy Cochise County & Sierra Vista

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2010: 3.0% * 2009: -3.2% 2008: -6.5% 2007: -1.3%  Sierra Vista 2010: 15.6% * 2009: -1.4% 2008: -6.6% 2007: 2.6% * January only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2010: -15.4% * 2009: 0.3% 2008: 0.2% 2007: 0.1%  Sierra Vista 2010: -6.8% * 2009: 2.1% 2008: -2.0% 2007: 2.9% * January only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2010: -12.7% * 2009: -9.0% 2008: 1.0% 2007: 19.7%  Sierra Vista 2010: -14.3% * 2009: -2.0% 2008: 19.4% 2007: 21.1% * January only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recovery for retail and restaurant & bar sales probable in 2010  Accommodation continues to trend downward

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment

Unemployment Rates * Jan-Feb only; seasonally adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Monthly Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Monthly Nonfarm Job Growth Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Job Gains/Losses By Industry 12 months ending Feb 2010 * Includes mining

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Job Growth Rate By Industry 12 months ending Feb 2010 * Includes mining

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment Outlook  Continued job losses through first quarter/half of 2010  Stabilization/job growth in second/third quarter  Unemployment will remain high through 2010 and into 2011

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Housing and Real Estate

Cochise College Center for Economic Research New Home Construction Single Family Residential Building Permits

Cochise College Center for Economic Research New Home Construction—Sierra Vista Single Family Residential Building Permits

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2009: 357 (-11.6%) 2008: 404 (-14.4%) 2007: 472 (-47.6%) 2006: 900 (-18.8%) 2005: 1,108 ( 5.9%) 2004: 1,046 ( 13.0%) 2003: 926  Sierra Vista 2010: 57 (137.5%) * 2009: 197 ( -1.0%) 2008: 199 ( 11.8%) 2007: 178 ( -58.3%) 2006: 427 ( -26.0%) 2005: 577 ( -16.3%) 2004: 689 ( 15.8%) 2003: 595 *Jan-Mar only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Existing Home Sales

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2010: 122 ( -4.7%) * 2009: 1,162 ( -1.9%) 2008: 1,184 (-21.1%) 2007: 1,500 (-10.4%) 2006: 1,675 (-20.1%) 2005: 2,097 ( 14.9%)  Sierra Vista Area 2010: 100 ( 4.2%) * 2009: 894 ( 1.5%) 2008: 881 (-21.1%) 2007: 1,117 (-12.6%) 2006: 1,278 ( -24.6%) 2005: 1,695 ( 19.5%)  Sierra Vista 2010: 72 ( -7.7%) * 2009: 714 ( 4.1%) 2008: 686 (-20.3%) 2007: 861 (-12.1%) 2006: 979 (-25.3%) 2005: 1,311 ( 21.6%) * Jan-Feb only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Median Home Price *Jan-Feb only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County 2010: $171,261 ( -2.1%) * 2009: $182,500 ( -0.8%) 2008: $184,000 ( -5.6%) 2007: $195,000 ( 1.3%) 2006: $192,569 (10.7%) 2005: $173,900 (24.3%) 2004: $139,900  Sierra Vista Area 2010: $180,662 ( -6.6%) * 2009: $191,000 ( -4.5%) 2008: $200,000 ( -3.8%) 2007: $208,000 ( 1.6%) 2006: $204,700 ( 10.6%) 2005: $185,000 ( 22.7%) 2004: $150,740  Sierra Vista 2010: $193,604 ( -1.5%) * 2009: $195,722 ( -5.2%) 2008: $206,500 ( -3.1%) 2007: $213,000 ( 0.5%) 2006: $212,000 (10.8%) 2005: $191,385 (21.3%) 2004: $157,750 * Jan-Feb only; comparison to same period a year prior

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

 New residential construction on path of recovery  Existing home sales at bottom  Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly  Commercial construction remains relatively strong

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Conclusion  Recession is likely over  Sierra Vista and Cochise County fared better than many other areas  Major sectors of local economy have shown improvement  Employment continues to lag

Cochise College Center for Economic Research