Migration and the Economy in Cornwall A quantitative analysis on the relationship between migration and the economy in the small areas of Cornwall Stuart Burley

Aims & methods Explore the pattern of migration in Cornwall and the economic implications Statistical analysis of 1991 census data Small area analysis, electoral wards Urbanisation & counterurbanisation

Operational definitions Urbanisation “a movement from a state of less concentration to a state of more concentration” (Tisdale 1942) Counterurbanisation “a movement from a state of more concentration to a state of less concentration” (Berry 1976)

Population change

The migratory profile of Cornwall Cornwall’s population increase over the last 20 years is solely attributable to migration Increases by net migration is far higher than the UK average and higher than the South west region

Unemployment in Cornwall 1991

Male earnings in Cornwall 1991

The economic profile of Cornwall Cornwall’s unemployment rates are far higher than the South west region and higher than the UK Earnings in Cornwall are lower than the South west region and 22.8% lower than the UK

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Structural disadvantages Geographically peripheral without a large urban hub Dependence on declining industries – fishing & agriculture Only seasonal benefits from tourism

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Population-led economic growth initiatives showed early signs of success Economic factors, branch closures and relocations Many former in-migrants now unemployed stayed behind

Why has Cornwall remained poor? Particular type of in-migration Many moving for quality of life motives rather than economic improvement In-migrants more likely to leave the labour market than non-migrants Economic benefit of migration may be dependent on the migratory strategies

Age structure of Cornwall 1991 (%)

In & out-migration by age, 1991 (%)

Net change by age, 1991

Cornwall as the mirror image of the escalator region Fielding (1992) The South east as an escalator region Cornwall – the first and last stages of the escalator effect

Urbanisation – Migrant origins

Urbanisation – Density of internal migrants origins and destinations

Urbanisation – Age structure of internal migrants

Urbanisation – Labour market explanations Migration as an equilibrating mechanism Balances the labour demand differential between areas Balances the earnings differential between areas

Urbanisation – Economic indicators of origins & destinations

Urbanisation – Male earnings 1999 Gross weekly pay full-time workers £ Urban wards average 340 All wards average 348

Urbanisation – Labour market explanations No significant difference in the economic profile of urban wards and the origin wards Earnings are slightly lower than average in the urban wards Little evidence to support labour market explanations

Urbanisation – Semi-detached house prices Average semi- detached price £ Urban Wards79,131 All Wards82,424

Urbanisation – Housing availability Housing completions Urban Areas8,705 All Non-Urban Areas6,643

Urbanisation – Second homes % Second homes of all household spaces Urban Wards1 All Wards5

Urbanisation – Housing explanations, tenure % Rented accommodation Urban Wards28.6 All wards25.2

Urbanisation - Conclusions Urbanisation of young internal migrants Housing constraints as the most likely explanations ‘Pull’ of greater affordability and availability of accommodation in urban areas

Counterurbanisation – Migrant origins

Counterurbanisation – Density of in-migrant origins and destinations

Counterurbanisation – Age structure of in-migrants 1991

Counterurbanisation – Social class of in-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Economic activity of 45- pensionable age in-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Unemployment of 45- pensionable age in-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Quality of life explanations Reasons for in- migration % of respondents Preferred environment42 % Rejoin relatives & friends 40 % Escape urban rat-race39 % Enjoyed previous holidays 38 %

Counterurbanisation – House price averages 1991 £ Price semi- detached house % £ more than Cornwall Cornwall£48,989 South West£61, % South East£76, % Greater London£107, %

Counterurbanisation – Tenure of in-migrants

Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor High frequency of In-migrants aged 45-pensionable age in rural wards High rates of home ownership High rates of unemployment Moving for quality of life reasons

Counterurbanisation – Equity rich work poor House price differentials In-migrants release capital through house price differentials ‘Cash cushion’ Chosen unemployment Pre-retirement fund Semi-retirement business ventures

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications The equilibrating effect of migration on house prices Destination prices become closer to the origin prices Increases in the price of rural housing

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation residential property increases

Urbanisation & counterurbanisation – The relationship & implications House prices increasing faster than earnings in the rural areas Increased mortgage gap Housing market disadvantages non- migrants but has advantages for in- migrants

First-time buyers unable to afford rural housing Urbanisation of young internal migrants ‘Push’ & ‘pull’ of housing – affordability and availability

Increased urbanisation of young people Increased demand for employment in high unemployment areas In-migration increases housing constraints and labour constraints Incentives for younger people to leave the county

Stream of in-migration – equity rich work poor migrants Counter-stream of out-migration – economically ambitious young migrants Opposite of the South East ‘escalator’ An ageing population Increased social welfare costs for a reducing working-age population