Towards an electric-rail based transportation system for emission mitigation Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment and Water Based on paper co-authored with Dr. Sonny H Kim (PNNL, USA) Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

| 1 CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach

| Introduction Transport sector was highlighted in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the key sectors to be tackled for meeting ambitious global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets Different strategies proposed for reducing transportation energy demand and emissions: land use and urban planning; fuel switching towards low carbon vehicles; improving vehicular fuel efficiency Shifting towards mass rapid transportation system has been argued as an important strategy for emission mitigation Is there a role for electricity based rail system in India’s climate policy is what needs to be analysed? 2

| Electrification along with public transportation 3 Scenario analysis explored implications of varying share of electricity rail in total passenger transportation demand, where in final share is pegged from 10% in 2050 to 50% in 2050 in different scenarios Rail represents long distance railways, inter city trains, urban metro systems, as well as high speed rail Implication for climate policy highlighted

| Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004) 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies Tracks 15 greenhouse gases Dynamic-recursive model Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007)

| An economy wide climate policy in conjunction with a transportation sector focused policy required in India 5 Passenger cars would take an increasingly higher share of passenger service demand in the future, from 5% in 2010 to 24% in A climate policy, implemented through a carbon price, leads to a 100% decarbonization of the supply sector by 2100, but not of transportation sector. Increasing the share of electric rail in India's transportation sector to 30% by 2050 from 13% in 2010, can reduce direct transport sector carbon dioxide emissions by 25% in 2050, relative to reference scenario emissions. However emissions only shift to the electricity production sector, an economy wide climate policy required for mitigation. A 30% share of electric rail reduces the cumulative mitigation cost by over 5% across the century.

| Comparative cost across countries 6 LocationProject DetailsTrack lengthCostData source Spain Route doubling and elactrification26 km$ 2.12 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml Yichang-Wanzho, ChinaMain line377 km$ 9 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml Haikou-Sanya, ChinaHigh speed line308 km$ 10 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml Madrid-Albacete, SpainHigh speed railway line304 km$ 12 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml St. Louis, USA One track extension of St. Louis rail system--$ 13 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Norfolk, VA, USASurface light rail lines--$ 27 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Delhi, India Urban metro rail project, Phase II124 km$ 28 Million/Kmwww.delhimetrorail.com Seattle USA Streetcars for urban /peri urban commuting--$ 31 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Seoul- Gimpo, KoreaAirport line20 km$ 98 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml Los Angeles USA Los Angeles Crenshaw line light rail system--$ 103 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Vancouver, Canada Vancouver light rail Canada line--$ 109 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Portland, USA Surface light rail new Milwaukie lines--$ 128 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com Copenhagen, DenmarkNew Metro line16 km$ 247 Million/Kmwww.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml Toronto, CanadaEglington light rail line--$ 250 Million/Kmwww.publictransport.about.com

| Conclusion Cost and flexibility of mitigation options important considerations in climate policy What are the operational challenges in increasing the share of electric rail in India? Can air travel be partly shifted towards high speed rail in India, what are the challenges? Indian Railways has significant potential for electricity generation through renewable energy that needs to be harnessed Not just passenger transportation, but also freight transport 7

| 8 THANK YOU

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