SMU Senior Design Project: Southwest Airlines Spring 2010 EMIS May

Team On-Time Performance Stacy Moskowitz Brandon Cabello Courtney Guenard 2

Agenda What makes them happy? Southwest: The Big Picture Is your line late? Say ‘No’ to late airports! Recommendations 3

WHAT MAKES THEM HAPPY? 4

We partnered with Southwest Airlines optimization group to tackle on-time performance Southwest uses a flight schedule to indicate a whole day’s worth of flying by line They wanted our assistance to improve their forecast of the on-time performance of entire scheduled line –Historically, on-time performance has been measured by a leg-by-leg basis –Southwest provided our group with historical turn and block time data for all flights from January Turn time DFW ORD Turn time LAX Sample: Line Schedule

SOUTHWEST: THE BIG PICTURE 6

Today, Southwest operates 537 aircrafts between 68 cities Image Source: Southwest Airline Systems Map

Based on our data, here we show the top 10 airports by departure Source: Jan 09 Flight Data; Southwest Airlines Analysis by: B Cabello, S Moskowitz, C Guenard On-time performance at these airports is crucial from a customer service and cost perspective On-time performance at these airports is crucial from a customer service and cost perspective 8

Next, we segmented the data into legs and lines City 1City 2City 3City 4City 5City 6 Line OAKFLLAUSOAK Line LAXBUFBWISATELP Line SJCRDUBNAONTSJCLAS Line HOUOAKSEAMCIMCO Line BWISANLASMDWALB Line LAXMCOPHXSEA Line HOURDUBNALASCMH Southwest’s Flights Overview Southwest’s overall count of lines and legs Southwest’s Flights Overview Southwest’s overall count of lines and legs These two segments were analyzed for on-time performance StartEnd Leg OAKFLL Leg LAXBUF 9

As a whole, 56% of Southwest’s flights arrive on-time to their destination Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg) Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg) Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg) Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights as a % Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg) Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights as a % Source: Jan 09 Flight Data; Southwest Airlines Analysis by: B Cabello, S Moskowitz, C Guenard 10

Here we measured lateness by line (full day’s worth of flying) Southwest’s Lateness Count Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights Southwest’s Lateness Count Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights Southwest’s Lateness % Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights a % Southwest’s Lateness % Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights a % 11

After researching lateness, we also measured a lines ability to recover Southwest’s Recovery Performance Southwest’s overall recovery % for all lines Southwest’s Recovery Performance Southwest’s overall recovery % for all lines 12 Table of Late Lines which Recovered (not all shown) LineOAKFLLAUSOAK LineLAXBUFBWISATELP LineSJCRDUBNAONTSJCLAS LineHOUOAKSEAMCIMCO LineBWISANLASMDWALB LineLAXMCOPHXSEA LineHOURDUBNALASCMH LineAUSSJCPHXMHT LineSFOFLLMCILAX LinePHXHOUSATMCO

IS YOUR LINE LATE? 13

Our research shows over 3200 lines experience at least one-late leg Southwest’s Lateness Count Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late lines Southwest’s Lateness Count Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late lines This analysis led us to explore our next area of investigation; airports 14 Table of Late Lines which Recovered (not all shown) LineSMF BWIBNA LineOAK MDWBWISTL DAL LinePHX MDWPIT TPA LineFLLABQMCOMSY DALBHM LineSMF PHXMHT TPAFLL LineSEA LASMCIIND LineSJCLAS BWIISP PBI Line BWIORF MDW LineSMF MCOBWI LineSJCSFO LAXMCI = delayed departure= on-time arrival resulting in recovery

SAY ‘NO’ TO LATE AIRPORTS 15

We began this study by counting the number of on- time and late arrivals by airport Count of Late/On-time Arrivals by Airport Probability Late Flights by Airport 16

Statistical analysis of lateness by airport shows a leftward skew Airport Lateness Frequency HistogramAirport Lateness Frequency Box Plot average outliers 17

This chart shows the 20 best and worst airports Airports listed in red are one of Southwest’s Top 10 Airports (by volume) 18

RECOMMENDATIONS 19

To improve Southwest flight schedules, we would like to make the following recommendations Research CategoryRecapRecommendations Line Analysis 20% of SW lines are late Line lateness led us to explore trouble some airports Although solving for airport lateness is important, a lines ability to recover is valuable Further analysis on Southwest’s best and worst airports would lend address turn time and overall line performance; Recovery airports may hold the key to improving turn-time at underperforming airports Airport Analysis Airport lateness ranged from 13% - 68% A histogram showed us the outlier airports; with 5 top airports included in the high side 20