KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Dinner Presentation to Institute of Public Administration Australia National Roundtable Series Meeting on Sustainable Population Strategy – Public Policy and Implementation Challenges Canberra 11 th April 2011

Outline of Presentation Introduction Myths and Population Dynamics Global Trends and Drivers Australian Population Issues Developing a Way Forward Conclusion

Exploding Myths About Population Population is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual which means it often escapes the attention of policy makers Population is influenced by economic changes but not purely a function of them Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable – provides some certainties in looking to the future Population is amenable to policy intervention

Global Population Situation Current global population 6,892 million Current annual increase rate 1.2% compared to 2.1% in 1969 World Total Fertility Rate 4.8 in , 2.5 in 2010 World Life Expectancy at Birth 56 in , 69 in 2010 Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in 2010 and 13.9 in 2050 Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, 50.5 in 2010 Projected Global Population in 2050 – 9,149 million

World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions in World Population, 1800 to 2050 Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

Some Key Demographic Elements in Future Global Population Change Ageing The youth bulge China and India The Migration and Development Debate Climate Change

“Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005

Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

Structural Ageing: MDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

Structural Ageing: LDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

Demographic Impacts of Fertility Decline Ageing The youth bulge and the demographic dividend

The Middle East Youth Bulge , 80% of outbreaks of violence in countries where 60% or more aged under 30 60% of region’s population aged under 30 20% of Egyptians aged Exacerbated in urban areas

Source: Gosh, B. 2011, Rage, Rap and Revolution, Time, February 28, p.25

The Youth Bulge (Westley and Cho, 2002, 57) “…is the result of a transition from high to low fertility about 15 years earlier. The youth bulge consists of large numbers of young adolescents and young adults who were born when fertility was high followed by declining numbers of children born after fertility declined”

World Regions: Share of Population in Working Ages, Actual, and Projected, Source:United Nations 2007

Impacts of the Youth Bulge The demographic dividend impact on the economy Accounts for a fifth of China’s economic growth in 1990s (Mason, 2004) Potential for political unrest (Fuller and Hoch, 1998) Potential for increased population mobility

The “demographic dividend” delivered through 3 mechanisms… Labour supply – the numbers available to work are larger. Also women are more likely to enter the workforce as family size decreases, hence, since the Asian youth bulge is associated with low fertility, female workforce participation is likely to be high while the young and the old consume more than they produce. Savings – younger working age people tend to have a higher level of output and also a higher level of savings. Human capital investments – with smaller numbers of children and cultural changes there will be greater investment in education, health, etc. Hence, primary and secondary enrolment ratios are increased.

Impacts of Current Youth Bulge Exacerbated by … Disproportionate concentration in cities First generation with universal education First generation growing up with the internet and global communications

The Demographic Giants: India and China Source: United Nations 2009 and 2010

China and India: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 2010 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

Key Demographic Issues Ageing – especially China Workforce challenges Gender imbalance International migration – strong policy intervention Internal population distribution Climate change

International Migration and Development Brain drain issues Remittances Diaspora impacts – new significance Role of policy

Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Economies Source: World Bank, 2010

NATIONAL DIASPORAS IN RELATION TO RESIDENT NATIONAL POPULATIONS Source: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005;

Role of Policy Origins- remittances - engagement of diaspora - return Destination - A development friendly immigration policy?

Climate Change and Population Coincidence of demographic and climate change hotspots Linkages with migration

Population and Climate Change Hotspots Source:

Hotspots of Climate Change Impact Within the Asia Pacific Coastal areas are vulnerable to inundation and the effect of storm surges associated with sea level rise (McGranahan et al., 2007). River valleys and deltas (Ericson et al., 2006) will be influenced by increased riparian flooding. Low lying island states, especially atolls, are at risk from the effects of sea level rise, surface warming and extreme weather events (Barnett and Adger, 2003). Semi-arid and low humidity areas where drought and availability of water are already problematic are likely to experience an exacerbation of those water shortage problems. Some other areas likely to be impacted by extreme weather events.

Asian Megacities at Risk Source: ADB 2009, 17

Differences in Population in the LECZ by Global Region, 2000 Source: McGranahan et al., 2007

Contemporary Dynamics of Australian Population Growth – Mortality, Fertility and Migration Composition Distribution Projections

Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2009 and 2010; ABS 2010

Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2010 Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth MalesFemales

Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, , and 2009 Source: ABS YearMalesFemales

Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

Australia: Permanent and Temporary Components of Net Overseas Migration, Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, DIAC Immigration Update and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

Baby Boomers % of Australian Population 41.8% of Australian Workforce

A Distinct Population Distribution 87% living in urban areas 64% living in capital cities 81% living 50 km from coast

Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004, 2011

Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years) Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010

Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

Projecting the Population Different to prediction ABS does every 3 years Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration

ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2008 Projections

Australia’s Population Dilemma On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because - A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers - Net increases in demand for labour On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change

Australia: Population by Selected Ages, 2010 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data

Addressing Ageing There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch”. Planning is crucial. Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now

Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible

Issues to be Considered Several of fastest developing sectors of the economy have a strong non-metropolitan location (mining and tourism) Agglomeration economics do not apply for all economic activity There is already net outmigration of the Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney

Issues to be Considered (cont) Increased international migration to non-metropolitan areas Environmental constraints of southeastern Australia The impact of baby boom retirement

Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal and International Migration, 1971 to 2006 Source: NSW Department of Planning

Australia: 457 Migrants and Settler Arrivals by Statistical Division, Source: DIAC

What is Needed? Currently there is an unproductive debate between “pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies There must be trade offs and compromises which facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider (a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated aspirational population targets? (b) Where is that growth best located?

Conclusion Australia is demographically better placed than most OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic and environmental changes over the next two decades However Australia lacks a population policy which is informed not only by economic imperatives but also environmental and social inclusion concerns Need for development of a strategy which is based on the best science and is inclusive of the aspirations of all Australians